National Football League

The Bears can win the NFC North ... if Justin Fields makes the third-year jump

Published Jun. 1, 2023 9:00 a.m. ET

There's no way around it: the path to the NFC North crown will go the way quarterback Justin Fields goes for the Chicago Bears this season.

The division is wide open, and you can make a case for each team across the division to finish first, but no other team's chances are quite so dependent on a single player. In the final installment of this four-part series, we explore why Chicago runs on Justin.

The Bears undoubtedly have a plan. General manager Ryan Poles has said so on a multitude of occasions. He wants to build for sustained success, not just capture lightning in a bottle. He said back when he was first hired by the Bears that his intention was to build through the draft and be selective in free agency. Turns out, that's exactly what he's done.

"I'm excited about where we're headed," Poles said after the 2023 NFL Draft, where the Bears made 10 total picks. "We've been able to do things the right way, and that's opened up opportunity."

That opportunity already includes next year's draft, too.

"Now you look forward to winning more football games, and then in terms of a front office guy, I'm already looking — what do we have in next year's draft and how can that help and what is our class — I had one of our guys start writing up top guys for next year just to see what it looks like," said Poles. "It looks good."

That's a quote you'd expect to hear from someone with a high degree of patience. Not every hole the Bears needed to fill was addressed this offseason — because that isn't realistic. But what was accomplished this offseason, through the draft and in free agency, was surrounding their most important player with talent. Therein lies the indicator of success for Chicago in 2023.

"You want to support your quarterback," said Poles after the draft. "We all know that's where it starts. So you want to surround him with talent. We had to wait a little bit to do it the way I wanted to do it and the way we wanted to do it, and I think we found some good opportunities to do that, solidify and improve the O-line, make sure that we have the running game to stay balanced, and then give him different types of receivers and different threats to create separation from the tight ends to receivers so more big plays can be made and you can grow your confidence and get in a rhythm."

Why Justin Fields no longer has excuses after Bears moves

The Bears built through the draft to do that, not only selecting offensive tackle Darnell Wright with their first pick but even in their trade out of their original No. 1 overall selection. The tipping point for the deal with the Carolina Panthers, among other suitors, was that they were willing to give up wide receiver D.J. Moore.

Poles knew the free agent class lacked top receivers. He knew the draft class was lacking too, as evidenced by the fact the first wide receiver didn't come off the board until pick No. 20. How was he going to get a true No. 1 option to help quarterback Justin Fields? He got creative, while sticking to the plan. A plan that includes a true evaluation of his quarterback before Fields' fifth-year option comes due next offseason. Like Goldilocks, the Bears are playing this just right.

Add in free-agent pickups like guard Nate Davis, running back D'Onta Foreman and the midseason pickup of wide receiver Chase Claypool and Fields finally has the resources around him to excel.

Not to mention, this will be the first time he goes into a season with prior experience in the offense he's running.

"That's the other thing we need to talk about, too, is just building that chemistry with all these new players coming together," said Poles. "So we're looking forward to the offseason and putting that time in and building that chemistry so everyone can rely on each other.

"It's got to come together, but I feel like on paper we've done a good job to surround [Fields] with good talent."

Now Fields needs to execute.

The Bears had the worst passing offense in the league last year, averaging a league-low 130.5 yards per game through the air. They also had the worst interception and sack rate. They had the No. 1 rushing offense both by per-game (177.3 yards) and per-play (5.40 yards) rates, yet they finished with just three wins. For as dynamic a runner as Fields is, it's not enough to be successful in the win column. The Bears need more. And to get more, they've given more, as evidenced above. They've invested in not just the offense, but the passing game in particular.

The good news is that's made it all the more likely Fields will make the coveted ‘year three jump.' Philadelphia's Jalen Hurts is perhaps the best example of that — and the best comparison for Fields. In 2021, Hurts' second year in the league and first year under head coach Nick Sirianni and offensive coordinator Shane Steichen, he completed 265 of 432 passing attempts for 3,144 yards and 16 touchdowns across 15 games. He added 784 rushing yards on 139 carries with 10 rushing touchdowns.

Fields' numbers were worse in the passing game last season, completing 192 of 318 attempts for 2,242 yards across 15 games. But his rushing numbers were better, running for 1,143 yards on 160 carries along with eight rushing touchdowns. Consider that the cast around Hurts, filled with veterans along the offensive line and better receivers to throw to, gave him a leg up and those seasons are comparable.

But then Hurts made that third-year jump. He went into 2022 with familiarity of the system he was running, the Eagles traded for A.J. Brown and Hurts had an offensive line and run game to lean on. What happened? Hurts' numbers drastically improved, going 306-of-460 for 3,701 yards and 22 touchdowns against just six interceptions. Hurts still ran, too. He had 165 carries for 760 yards and 13 rushing touchdowns.

The Eagles went to the Super Bowl and Hurts signed a five-year, $255 million contract.

That type of improvement is attainable for Fields considering the Bears' reinforcements. And while reaching the Super Bowl may be a bit of a stretch, winning a division as questionable as the NFC North isn't.

Carmen Vitali covers the NFC North for FOX Sports. Carmen had previous stops with The Draft Network and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. She spent six seasons with the Bucs, including 2020, which added the title of Super Bowl Champion (and boat-parade participant) to her résumé. You can follow Carmen on Twitter at @CarmieV.

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