The Broncos have 6 days to figure out their QB future
The first major challenge Denver faces in repeating as Super Bowl champion: Winning a high-stakes game of quarterback chicken.
As each second passes toward Wednesday's start of the free-agent signing period, the Broncos move closer to potentially losing Peyton Manning's heir apparent, Brock Osweiler, to another team.
Manning's $19 million salary becomes guaranteed March 9 if he's still on Denver's roster. As I reported Saturday for FOXSports.com, Denver has commenced contract negotiations with other players without counting Manning on its books for salary cap purposes. A sizable chunk of the savings that would be created by Manning's release is earmarked toward re-signing Osweiler.
The problem is that Denver and agent Jimmy Sexton are at an impasse about Osweiler's worth with neither side ready to blink -- yet.
Broncos general manager John Elway felt outside linebacker Von Miller was a bigger part of Denver's future success than Osweiler. Miller was given an exclusive franchise tag Tuesday that will pay him in excess of $14 million for the 2016 season.
If they had been able to re-sign Miller to an extension before the NFL deadline for use of the tag, the Broncos could have avoided the Osweiler stare-down by designating him a franchise or transition player. It's doubtful the Broncos would have given Osweiler the franchise tag and $20 million salary that goes with it a la the Washington Redskins and Kirk Cousins, but a transition designation of $17.7 million was feasible. Osweiler then would have enjoyed the chance to sign an offer sheet with another team -- with Denver having the right to match.
Although the Broncos wouldn't have received draft-pick compensation for losing Osweiler, at least Denver would have known exactly how much he was valued by other suitors.
The Broncos are instead forced to draw a line in the sand about how much they are willing to pay Osweiler in hopes that no rival club in desperate quarterbacking need -- like Houston or Los Angeles -- crosses it with a better deal should he hit the market.
Denver's approach toward Osweiler is telling. Where interested teams have only his seven-game stretch as a starter in 2015 as their primary scouting barometer, Elway knows far more about Osweiler from his practice performances to locker-room interactions to mental acumen in quarterback meetings.
Not to mention the fact Elway is a Hall of Famer at the position himself.
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Such understanding, combined with perceived market value, has helped Elway determine how much he's willing to offer Osweiler.
Osweiler, who would be under no obligation to let Denver match any outside offers should he become a free agent, must do some soul-searching about his NFL career as well. Even if a bigger financial package is in the offing elsewhere, how much does Osweiler value staying in comfortable surroundings for a first-class organization that has a legitimate chance of defending its title compared to starting over elsewhere for a few million dollars more per season with a franchise that lacks the same track record of success?
Then there's the X-factor in the Broncos-Osweiler saga: Manning.
Agent Tom Condon has told multiple media outlets that Manning hasn't decided his NFL future. Manning didn't tip his hand during a Wednesday night speaking engagement in Jacksonville, Fla., though he did say he "had not thought much" about what his post-football plans would be if he did retire.
The overwhelming public and media sentiment is for the 39-year-old Manning to walk away rather than continue as a shell of the player he once was during his own Hall of Fame career. Manning may feel differently -- and that's not a bad thing for the Broncos.
Consider this scenario:
1. The Broncos release Manning to clear his salary from under the cap with the understanding the door isn't completely shut on his return.
2. Condon informs teams that Manning is only willing to play in 2016 for the Broncos.
3. Should Osweiler then leave, Manning could be re-signed at a lesser salary but with lucrative incentives tied to individual and team success. Manning accepted a similar scenario last season, earning $4 million in the postseason after agreeing to that same amount in a cut to his base salary.
Because he has earned more money than any player in NFL history ($246.7 million) and further riches as a commercial pitchman, the salary trade-off for Manning may be worth it. Denver would have more cash freed to re-sign Miller and attempt to keep valued defensive end Malik Jackson from departing in free agency.
The Broncos also would buy another year to develop a rookie quarterback selected in this year's draft or lay the groundwork for Manning's 2017 departure by finding a veteran better heeled to run head coach Gary Kubiak's offense that is predicated upon having a mobile passer.
However, there are caveats to this:
* The Broncos are in the tricky negotiating position of having the agents for Manning (Condon) and Osweiler (Jimmy Sexton) working for the same firm in Creative Artists Agency. It will be difficult for Denver to leverage one quarterback against the other.
* Manning hasn't indicated how much time he needs to determine his NFL future. The Broncos can't wait long for an answer if Osweiler leaves.
* And the biggie: Do the Broncos really want Manning back if push came to shove?
There is little reason to believe Manning will be much better than last season in his newfound role as a game-manager even if Denver bolsters its offensive line and fields an improved running game.
Manning's weaknesses were again exposed in Super Bowl 50. He passed for a scant 141 yards. He committed two turnovers. He was sacked five times. Denver's dominating defense scored as more touchdowns as the offense (one). And the Broncos were one for 14 on third-down conversion attempts.
So if it's not Manning and it's not Osweiler, the Broncos must move to Plan C. It's not current third-stringer Trevor Siemian (a 2015 seventh-round pick) but a veteran who could serve as at least a one-season stop-gap if not long-term answer.
There would then be a striking similarity between the current Broncos and the last Super Bowl-winning team that returned the following season without its top two quarterbacks.
Peyton Manning battled injuries in 2015 and has a chance to go out on top.
Like the Broncos, the 2000 Baltimore Ravens compensated for a shoddy offense with one of the great defenses in league history. The 2001 Ravens hoped for improvement by going with Elvis Grbac and Randall Cunningham instead of Trent Dilfer and Tony Banks.
That Baltimore squad reached the second round of the playoffs before a loss to Pittsburgh, when the Ravens' defense couldn't compensate for ongoing offensive deficiencies.
The next six days will go a long way toward determining whether the 2016 Broncos are potentially headed toward the same fate.
