National Football League

The first Aaron Rodgers domino is about to fall

Published Mar. 7, 2022 5:14 p.m. ET

By Martin Rogers
FOX Sports Columnist

Deadlines, as any sportswriter will tell you, can either be a boon or a curse. But just know this: If they didn’t exist, nothing much would ever get done (or written).

One of the NFL’s most awaited deadlines arrives on Tuesday, and while much uncertainty remains surrounding the Aaron Rodgers saga, what goes down over the next day or so should help bring things to a head.

Given that the NFL news cycle for two years now has felt like all Rodgers, all the time, it is perhaps remarkable that a major development on his immediate future could hinge around someone else.

But that’s precisely how it is. By 4 p.m. ET on Tuesday, the Green Bay Packers must decide whether they are going to use the franchise tag on Davante Adams, Rodgers’ friend, favorite receiving target and what many consider to be the best wideout in football.

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Following the team’s latest playoff exit, Rodgers put himself on the clock, unofficially, when he stated that Adams' status would impact his own choice, both in terms of timing and execution.

"I think that should be enough time to make a decision by then," Rodgers told the Jan. 25 edition of the "Pat McAfee Show." "I don't want to put myself on a specific date, but I do want to be sensitive to Davante and many other guys who have decisions to make on their own futures. To drag it out past free agency would be disrespectful to the organization and to those guys, and that 100 percent will not happen."

Well, the clock has almost run out, leading to the assumption that this thing is finally about to get resolved, 21 months after the drafting of Jordan Love raised the possibility that Rodgers might not be a Packer for life.

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Persistently, the likeliest destination for Rodgers, if he were to clear out his Lambeau Field locker, has seemed to be Denver. The Broncos play in a loaded division but have the roster and the cap flexibility to make a serious play for success, and they just signed former Green Bay offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett as their head coach.

The Tennessee Titans and Pittsburgh Steelers also emerged as contenders over the past week, though it would be a seismic upset for either to land Rodgers, given his history with the Packers and the lengths Denver has gone to roll out the welcome mat.

"Aaron Rodgers knows his relationships are in Green Bay, and he believes they're excellent," FOX Sports' Colin Cowherd said. "That’s why he wants to stay there, but he knows the talent’s better in Denver (or Pittsburgh)."

Throughout this process, there have been times when Rodgers has seemed certain to leave, times when he’s seemed certain to stay and times when no one has any freaking idea. The more you try to overthink these things, the more it is possible to tie yourself in knots.

For who truly knows what kind of factors could weigh into his decision? Rodgers’ relationship with actress Shailene Woodley has often been touted as a reason he may wish to leave Green Bay and head West, and still could be. Yet in the last three weeks, Rodgers and Woodley have been engaged, on rocky ground, split up, possibly reconciling and now, apparently, back together.

This is kind of how Rodgers likes things, a situation where he knows what’s going on and virtually everyone else on the planet doesn’t. Sure, reports have claimed he is still "torn" over the looming decision, but he’s going to have at least a clear bead on what options are available to him.

Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst has said that there have been no official trade proposals made for Rodgers and, by the strict interpretation of his words, he’s almost certainly telling the truth.

However, it's utterly unthinkable that Rodgers doesn’t have a crystal clear picture of which teams the Packers would be prepared to trade him to, and under what terms. Similarly, he will know how much money he would be getting and what kind of offensive parts he'd have surrounding him at any new destination.

A few things have come into focus.

Rodgers wants to be the highest-paid player in the NFL on a per-year basis — expect the magic number of $50 million to at least start being thrown around.

He wants to be part of a winning team, having won one Super Bowl but falling short of the big game since. If the Packers look to move on from Adams, it will be a clear signal that a rebuild of some description is in the cards. Rodgers wants no part of that.

Some pretty serious salary-cap gymnastics would be required for Green Bay to bring back Rodgers and Adams, but it wouldn’t be completely impossible to pull off.

Either way, it sounds like we are going to know sooner or later, at which point the Aaron Rodgers saga meets its first major fork in the road. It has offered no shortage of entertainment and drama, and the man at the center of it has fueled the fire — perhaps deserving the savage and slightly inappropriate burn meted out by Charles Barkley.

But it is decision time now, time for all the cards to be on the table. It couldn’t spin out forever, it had to be this way eventually. All it took was a deadline to make it happen.

Martin Rogers is a columnist for FOX Sports and the author of the FOX Sports Insider Newsletter. You can subscribe to the newsletter here.