National Football League

Titans, Raiders, Bills, more: AFC looking wide-open through Week 8

Published Nov. 1, 2021 12:18 a.m. ET

By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

Another weekend, another AFC rankings shuffle.

After eight Sundays of NFL action, the AFC is wide open, and I’m not certain I’d place money on any team to win the conference.

Let's go through the top contenders by current playoff seed.

Tennessee Titans (6-2)

Why they could be the team to beat: Well, they’ve beaten the Bills, Chiefs and Colts in three straight weekends. That will get it done. The Titans' offense is continuing to jell after a slow start to the season and having to replace offensive coordinator Arthur Smith. They’ve gotten back to their bread and butter: Derrick Henry and play-action passes to A.J. Brown & Co. The Colts held Henry to only 68 yards on Sunday, and the Titans' offense was still able to score 27 points.

Issues that might derail them: Their advanced numbers aren’t that great. In fact, Football Outsiders has the Titans as one of the worst 5-2 teams since they’ve been charting the DVOA metric. That's not going to be much better after Tennessee's close overtime win.

We know that rushing the football can set the tone, and it does help the Titans win games, but passing efficiency is more valuable. The Titans entered the game against the Colts 19th in passing efficiency, and while the win will bump them up, they just aren’t as good this season on offense.

Defensively, they have the same issues as last season, though they are improved. They are middle-of-the-pack on third down and ranked 27th by Pro Football Focus on their pass rush. This will be their downfall. But for now, the Titans sit atop the conference.

Las Vegas Raiders (5-2)

Why they could be the team to beat: The Raiders have played better football without Jon Gruden running the show. Their offense has new concepts, including more play-action passes, and the defense is improved from last season. The Raiders could continue to grow without the Gruden shadow around the franchise and shock everyone.

Issues that might derail them: They just aren’t that talented compared to the rest of the conference. The Raiders' offensive line is struggling, and their defense is not where it needs to be to win the conference. It’s improved under Gus Bradley but still has a long way to go. I don't think this team will win the division.

Baltimore Ravens (5-2)

Why they could be the team to beat: Lamar Jackson. Plain and simple. He’s carrying this franchise at the moment. He’s the league MVP, and he has more total yards than plenty of NFL teams. Also, he has shown the ability to carry this team on his back when all hell is breaking loose around him.

Issues that might derail them: Injuries. The Ravens are the most injured team in the NFL and as mentioned, Jackson has carried them. That is what special quarterbacks do. But the injuries are starting to take their toll. The defense is struggling, and the offensive line shows weakness at times. There’s only so much that Jackson can do to help this team win each week.

Buffalo Bills (5-2)

Why they could be the team to beat: The Bills are the best overall team in the AFC. Their defense has been stingy. It came into Sunday first in efficiency, and after playing well against the hapless Dolphins' offense, it will remain there. The Bills' offense has not been what we saw last season, but that was to be expected. Josh Allen is not turning in the same performance. Then again, the offense is still top-10, and when the Bills are rolling, it’s difficult to stop them.

Issues that might derail them: The offense being off. We’ve seen far too many portions of games this season in which the Bills' offense wasn’t very crisp. Their offensive line ranks 26th in pass protection and 18th in run blocking by Pro Football Focus. That’s normally not good enough to win multiple playoff games. But there’s still time to improve, and if they do, the Bills are the favorites.

Cincinnati Bengals (5-3)

Why they could be the team to beat: The Bengals are dramatically improved all over the field. On offense, the addition of Ja’Marr Chase has unlocked Joe Burrow and the Bengals' passing game. They are a legit offense with Burrow slinging the rock. The offensive line has issues at times, but running back Joe Mixon still gets his yards. Defensively, the Bengals are a solid unit, coming into the weekend fifth in EPA. This is a good team.

Issues that might derail them: When teams become good overnight, they often need lessons about sustained winning in this league. Today was that day for the Bengals, as they went to New York and lost to the lowly Jets. The Bengals were rightfully praised for their early season success, but I saw Bengals fans counting up the remaining wins on the schedule. Cincinnati did not play with the necessary energy, most noticeably in the trenches, against the Jets. The Bengals aren’t ready for this spotlight yet, and that’s OK.

The next four teams in the standings have four wins each — and some major flaws.

Pittsburgh is outstanding on defense but so blah on offense. It's often painful to watch this offense. However, the offensive line has continued to improve.

The Chargers' defense has struggled, especially in stopping the run. They are getting gashed each week, and it’s putting pressure on the offense to be perfect.

New England is a middle-of-the-road team with a rookie quarterback it doesn't quite trust yet. However, after eight weeks, Mac Jones appears to be the best in this rookie draft class. Bill Belichick has found his new quarterback, but the Patriots aren’t explosive enough on offense, and they're just average on defense.

The Browns aren’t good enough at quarterback right now. Whether you blame that on Baker Mayfield’s talent or his shoulder injury, he's just not good enough right now. Also, I’ve been disappointed by Cleveland's passing defense.

Bonus: Kansas City Chiefs (3-4)

Why they could be the beat to team: If the Chiefs stop turning the freaking ball over! The Chiefs' offense is pressing. Patrick Mahomes is not taking what the defense gives him. If the Chiefs just take what is in front of them, they will continue to be a high-powered offense. Not a single team would look forward to hosting this squad for a playoff game in January. And the Chiefs' defense is playing better, but they can't be any worse. I'm curious to see this team against a beat-up Giants squad on Monday.

Issues that might derail them: It’s just not their season. That is entirely possible. It’s difficult to make back-to-back AFC Championship Games, let alone three in a row. Maybe the Chiefs need a reset year. Their roster isn’t as good anymore. They turn the ball over too much. Their defense is porous. Players are bickering with fans on social media. It might be one of those seasons for the Chiefs.

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.