National Football League

Tom Brady picks his Super Bowl favorite a few weeks before NFL playoffs start

Updated Dec. 21, 2024 11:29 p.m. ET

Heading into Week 16, the Buffalo Bills had taken over as the favorites to win Super Bowl LIX with +425 odds. Their quarterback, Josh Allen, had also solidified himself as the MVP frontrunner.

But the results of Saturday's games served as a reminder that there are no sure things in the NFL. Patrick Mahomes, even with an injured ankle, led the Kansas City Chiefs to a 27-19 win over the Houston Texans, inching the two-time defending Super Bowl champs closer to the No. 1 seed in the AFC. After that, reigning league MVP Lamar Jackson powered the Baltimore Ravens to a playoff-clinching victory over the rival Pittsburgh Steelers.

Both the Chiefs (+600) and Ravens (+800) came into the weekend with top-five Super Bowl odds, after the Bills, Philadelphia Eagles (+475) and Detroit Lions (+475).

Tom Brady knows a thing or two about winning when the pressure is on. The seven-time Super Bowl champ, who was in the booth for the Ravens' 34-17 win over the Steelers on FOX, weighed in on who he thinks has the edge when the postseason rolls around.

And Tom Brady is picking the Chiefs to be the Super Bowl winner because of Mahomes, especially if it's close.

"If it's a one-score game, I'm taking Patrick Mahomes anytime because he's got that championship DNA," Brady said. "He doesn't flinch, either. The way that Josh Allen has played this year, he's right in the hunt for MVP, along with Saquon [Barkley] and Lamar [Jackson]. They're just tremendous as they come down the stretch."

The Bills (11-3) handed the Chiefs (14-1) their only loss of the season in Week 11, when Josh Allen threw for 262 yards and ran for another 55 yards in Buffalo's 30-21 win. That improved Allen's regular-season record against Kansas City to 4-1, though he's 0-3 in the postseason against Mahomes and Co.

Brady also talked about how the playoffs are a different beast than the regular season.

"These games, in the end, come down to turnovers. Who converts a third down? Whether it's a missed kick or not. There's games to be decided in terms of standings as you go into the playoffs, but once you get there, man: It's a one-game, single-elimination tournament. You are all-out to see who, ultimately, can play their best in the biggest moments."

Tom Brady praises Lamar Jackson & Derrick Henry in Ravens' win vs. Steelers | NFL on FOX

Brady started an NFL-most 48 playoff games in his career, finishing with a 35-13 record. Mahomes is 15-3 in the postseason, with two of those losses coming against Brady.

Whether Mahomes and the Chiefs make it back to the Super Bowl or not, Brady will be watching from the broadcast booth. Super Bowl LIX will air on FOX, live from the Superdome in New Orleans on Feb. 9, 2025.

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