National Football League

Trevor Lawrence is this year's risky 'can't-miss' NFL Draft prospect

Updated Jul. 20, 2021 7:28 p.m. ET

By RJ Young
FOX Sports College Football Writer

Trevor Lawrence is not the best quarterback in the 2021 NFL Draft. He's just the "can't-miss" prospect at the position.

See? Got your attention.

I got your attention because the only opinion NFL Draft analysts share is that Lawrence is the best quarterback in this draft class. Jacksonville owns the No. 1 overall pick, and everybody except Gardner Minshew believes the Jaguars need a QB.

Walk into your Zoom room bar crawl and proclaim there’s a better quarterback, and you’re liable to catch more darts than Ted Lasso in a room full of AFC Richmond fans.

"I think that Trevor Lawrence is quite literally and figuratively head and shoulders above everybody else in this quarterback class," FOX Sports NFL Draft analyst Rob Rang said.

Lawrence has size. He has charisma. He possesses arm talent like Ricky Vaughn.

There’s a lot to like about the Cartersville, Georgia, cannon who threw for more yards (13,902) and more touchdowns (161) than any other player in state high school history. Add to this, he’s a winner.

Lawrence won 41 consecutive games and two state championships in high school. In the only senior year he has ever had, he threw 41 touchdown passes and just one interception.

Then he showed up at Clemson and promptly kept right on winning.

The man has lost just twice as starting quarterback since his junior year of high school. NFL personnel types have been hungering for him for three years.

The only two QBs to lead their teams to wins against Lawrence are the guy who was a Heisman winner, national champion and 2020 No. 1 overall pick — first name: Joe, last name: Burrow – and the one player Lawrence has been compared and contrasted with since he was in high school.

Before his name was written here in this sentence, you knew that was former Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields.

Fields doesn’t have the numbers Lawrence has. He hasn’t played enough games to come close. And his talent is different.

Watch: Ohio State QB Justin Fields picks apart Rutgers for 6 touchdowns | HIGHLIGHT TAPE

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In a world of comparisons, to meet our need to fit players into neat boxes, Fields is much more Russell Wilson to Lawrence’s Alex Smith. But therein lies the rub: Neither Fields nor Lawrence can or will be like Wilson or Smith, and there’s a decent chance that the one taken first — Lawrence by most accounts — won’t be the better of the two.

Here’s a list of the first quarterbacks selected since 2011:

2020: Joe Burrow
2019: Kyler Murray
2018: Baker Mayfield
2017: Mitch Trubisky
2016: Jared Goff
2015: Jameis Winston
2014: Blake Bortles
2013: E.J. Manuel
2012: Andrew Luck
2011: Cam Newton

Let's read that list another way:

2020: Could Be
2019: Could Be
2018: Could Be
2017: Yikes!
2016: Made the Super Bowl
2015: Nope
2014: Yikes!
2013: Yikes!
2012: Really Good
2011: NFL MVP

Nowhere in there do you see a sure-fire, All-Pro QB. But you surely see a handful who make the Dallas Cowboys look smart for drafting Dak Prescott in the fourth round of the 2016 draft, the Seahawks look smart for drafting Wilson in the third round in 2012, and the Kansas City Chiefs look like the draft geniuses of the millennium for trading up to get the Michael Jordan of the sport, Patrick Mahomes, in 2017.

By the way, they’re paying Mahomes MJ money, too. You can't fault any QB-draft hopeful for singing, "Sometimes I dream ... that he is me."

Selecting a quarterback has proven to be as much about chance as it is talent and fit. And even those take time (see: Allen, Josh) or might never work out (see: Jones, Daniel).

However, balancing talent and fit on either end of the fulcrum is the job, and if your job depends on selecting a quarterback, the Fields ... er, the field gets trimmed sharply.

That was once Randy Mueller’s job, and he was damn good at it, winning NFL Executive of the Year with the Saints in 2000. When jobs are on the line, most NFL general managers aren’t inclined to take a chance. They hedge.

North Dakota State quarterback Trey Lance personifies the risky pick in this year’s draft. As the decision-maker for a team, Mueller couldn’t sell himself — let alone his club — on selecting a player with just 16 games of film in the FCS as the franchise quarterback for the next 15 years.

"How do I justify taking a guy like this?" asked Mueller, who also worked with the Seahawks and Dolphins. "And it is a giant leap of faith. And most people have never been in that chair of pulling the trigger and having to defend or pick like that."

Those who have pulled that trigger don’t usually last long. The hit rate on quarterbacks in the NFL is iffy at best.

You could argue there are only five to seven elite quarterbacks in the NFL. Most of those were not the first QB taken off the board in their respective drafts.

Colin Cowherd: Trevor Lawrence is going to win Super Bowls, with the right Coach and GM | TH HERD

Clemson Tigers' quarterback Trevor Lawrence has been entered into the NFL Draft, and Colin Cowherd reacts. Hear why he believes Lawrence may be the greatest draft prospect of all time, and hear what other sports stars Colin believes he can compare Lawrence's path to the NFL to.

Those generational talents at QB? They own that most important feature that makes them generational: They can read defenses before and after the snap. Lawrence might be able to do that, but he wasn't forced to display that ability at Clemson.

The Tigers' scheme is built on easier reads, run-pass options and short passes that take advantage of the explosive nature of their receiving corps and backfield. Lawrence is more likely to throw to men who are open, as opposed to having to throw those players open.

And in the NFL? In which the top 2% of college players make up labor pool? That matters most.

While Lawrence might be considered the can’t-miss prospect at the position, it’s his holding that title that is most likely to insulate him and the men responsible for making the pick — cough, cough Jacksonville — and that’s what makes him the easy choice.

No one is going to flay the NFL brain trust that selects Lawrence. In a league that abhors risk, that’s what makes him the definitive No. 1.

RJ Young is a national college football writer and analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter at @RJ_Young. Subscribe to "The RJ Young Show" on YouTube. He is not on a StepMill.