National Football League

Tyreek Hill chasing 2,000 receiving yards — can he do it? Odds, predictions

Published Aug. 12, 2023 11:52 a.m. ET

One of the more elusive feats in NFL history has been in the limelight in recent years, as some of the game's greatest pass-catchers inch closer and closer to it: reaching 2,000 regular-season receiving yards.

One of those pass-catchers that come to mind is Miami Dolphins superstar Tyreek Hill. Can he pull off the feat?

He certainly thinks so.

"The quarterback play that we have is amazing, as you can see, Tua has been delivering, I feel like, all training camp, and the way that our head coach and our OC design plays for us is ridiculous," Hill said on NFL Network in July. "My job is really easy. I just got to stay healthy, I just got to keep my attention to detail and just know where to be at on the field at all times for my quarterback. Then I’ll be able to make those plays to get where I want to be at, which is 2K."

Quite the bold statement. What do the sportsbooks say?

The current record for receiving yards in a season is owned by retired Detroit Lions legend Calvin Johnson, who amassed 1,964 receiving yards in 2012. FanDuel Sportsbook has the odds for any player to break that record this regular season, with the yes at+430 and no at -670. If you are strictly looking at the odds, it doesn't look like Hill can get there.

Doing the math, Johnson had 122 receptions that season, meaning he averaged a whopping 16.1 yards per reception. Hill put up 1,710 receiving yards last season, nabbing 119 receptions, equaling 14.1 yards per reception.

FanDuel also has the Over/Under on Hill receptions at 98.5, meaning Hill would need to average 20 yards per reception on 98 catches to amass 1,965 receiving yards. He would need to average 20.4 yards per reception on 98 catches to reach 2,000 receiving yards.

His career yards per reception average is 13.9.

Working to Hill's advantage is the fact that he has 17 games to reach 2,000, as opposed to the 16 games Johnson had to work with.

Arguably the most important factor in Hill's chase is the health of his quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa. Last season, in Tagovailoa's 13 starts, Hill had 94 receptions and 1,408 receiving yards, an average of 108.3 yards per game. In four games without Tagovailoa, Hill had 25 receptions and 302 yards, an average of 75.5 per game.

The stats say that if Tagovailoa stayed healthy, in those four games, Hill would have needed 557 yards to break Johnson's record (139 yards per game) and 592 to reach 2,000 (148 yards per game).

"If Tua doesn't miss games, he goes over 2,000 yards," said former Pro Bowl cornerback Antonio Cromartie on "The Carton Show" on Thursday. "No ifs, ands or buts about it."

Are you betting on the star wide receiver to get to break the record?

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