National Football League

Tyreek Hill trade puts Kansas City Chiefs at clear crossroads

Published Mar. 23, 2022 8:55 p.m. ET

By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

Continuing the trend of unprecedented player movement in this 2022 NFL offseason, the Kansas City Chiefs traded All-Pro wide receiver Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins for five draft picks Wednesday.

While it’s difficult to see the Chiefs' plan through the shock of this move, I do believe they could come out better in the end. Let’s explore how that might happen.

The simple version of the deal is this: The Chiefs and Hill had been working on an extension. After Davante Adams was traded to the Raiders and signed a new deal with an average annual salary of $28.25 million, the price for Hill was no longer something Kansas City wanted to pay. The Chiefs decided to trade Hill at the height of his value, netting first- and second-round picks in April's draft and three other draft choices. Upon agreeing to the trade, Hill also agreed to a new deal in Miami, worth roughly $25 million per season for the first three years.

The more complex view of the trade is this: The Chiefs are signaling that they are likely taking a slight step back in 2022 — remember they still have Patrick Mahomes — in order to take many steps forward in the future with more depth, more cap flexibility and more potential playmakers on the roster.

It should be made clear: The Chiefs had enough money to keep Hill with Mahomes' current contract. However, K.C. chose to not pay Hill more than it felt comfortable with. In a vacuum, I agree with this roster-building philosophy. By paying Hill, the Chiefs most likely would have needed to restructure contracts, so they chose draft picks instead.

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After all, Kansas City's roster is lacking depth, and this trade can address some of those issues.

The Chiefs will win this trade if they meet two conditions: Their offense continues to be near the top of the efficiency rankings, and they use these draft picks to add true difference-makers to the roster.

Hill has dynamic traits that make him a nightmare for opposing defenses. There is no one who can replace his effect on defenses and his ability to generate explosive plays.

The quick-strike Chiefs offense we've seen the past four seasons is no longer. However, with the right additions, I believe Andy Reid will continue to field excellent offenses. Reid has a 20-plus-year history of designing high-octane offenses, and, oh, he still has the best quarterback in the NFL.

The Chiefs just signed free agent JuJu Smith-Schuster, and they appear to be close to signing former Packers receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling. K.C. must use one of its two first-round picks on a receiver, and this draft appears deep for wideouts.

Again, not a single one of these three potential receivers, assuming the Chiefs draft one early, is a one-for-one replacement for Hill. However, this trio, along with All-Pro tight end Travis Kelce and veteran receiver Mecole Hardman, should be more than enough for the Chiefs' offense to be near the top of the charts in offensive efficiency.

Will the Chiefs' offense start fast in 2022? I wouldn’t bet on it. It will be a new offense with new parts. Players will need to learn and adapt in their roles. Mahomes will need to get comfortable with his weapons, and Reid will need time to figure out what works best with his revamped scheme.

But I am less concerned about the future of this offense than I am about K.C. hitting on the draft picks.

The Chiefs' roster, especially on the defensive side of the ball, is meager. They have zero impactful edge rushers and no linebacker depth, and outside of a few secondary pieces, they will have issues covering opposing wide receivers. There are reasons the Chiefs lack depth on defense. Bloated contracts and poor drafts directly after the selection of Mahomes have left the team needing to add bodies to the defense.

Tyreek Hill makes Dolphins' offense dangerous

Mark Schlereth joins Colin Cowherd to discuss his reaction to the Chiefs' trading Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins.

If the Chiefs are able to use the extra first- and second-rounder to add impactful rookies at pass-rusher and cornerback (I wouldn’t mind two pass-rushers), that would be a win in this trade. After the previous two drafts, in which the Chiefs added Willie Gay Jr., L’Jarius Sneed, Nick Bolton, Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith, general manager Brett Veach should feel confident that he can choose the right players.

All of this is the optimistic view of this trade. The Chiefs get cap relief, they use that relief to sign and draft impact players, and in two seasons, they are back hoisting the Lombardi Trophy.

It is also possible that this trade signals the downfall of the Chiefs' run atop the AFC after four dominant seasons. Perhaps they'll be unable to replace Hill's production, and the draft picks won't pan out. Only time will tell.

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.