San Francisco 49ers

Week 14 NFL picks against the spread recap with Jason McIntyre | WHAT DID YOU LEARN?

Published Dec. 16, 2019 11:22 a.m. ET

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Jason McIntyre

I can already tell you what will be the hottest offseason NFL betting story: Why home field advantage suddenly means much less. Road teams went 9-5-1 ATS this week, continuing a season-long trend. The 49ers went to New Orleans and won a thriller. The Ravens traveled to Buffalo and dominated the Bills. Just a week after winning at home against the Patriots, the Texans were blown out at home by the Denver Broncos and rookie quarterback Drew Lock - who started in his second career game. And the biggest surprise of all ... the Patriots 21-game home win streak was snapped by Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. New England’s loss leaves just one team unbeaten at home: The Minnesota Vikings (6-0). Last year there we had an 8-0 team (Patriots) and four 7-1 teams.

No surprise here: The Ravens are the most complete, bet-on team

For the first time all season, Lamar Jackson was held under 200 yards of total offense … and it still didn’t matter. The Ravens got the win on the road. Baltimore has won nine straight - the longest streak in franchise history. They were dominating: Up 24-9, before some questionable calls helped Buffalo sneak back into the game.

The Bills only had 209 yards of offense ... but the Ravens had 99 penalty yards, including multiple personal foul penalties. Buffalo had five first downs via penalty and were only 4-17 on third down. Josh Allen - after outplaying Dak Prescott a week ago - attempted 39 passes and had 105 yards passing for an abysmal 2.3 yards per pass. If they’re going to win in the playoffs, we’ll need to see “good” Josh Allen.

A good late season bet-on team: The Los Angeles Rams

The Seahawks were living a charmed life ... until the Rams brought them back to reality on in Los Angeles on Sunday night. Seattle had won five games by four points or fewer, but they were never even in this game. Important takeaway: If you can’t pressure Jared Goff, he’s going to burn you ... and the Rams moved the ball with ease - averaging 6.8 yards per play, picking up 26 first downs and 455 yards of offense. The Rams were 4-for-5 in the red zone.

After a few growing pains earlier this season, their young and learning offensive line is finally coming together and has only permitted three sacks total in the last four weeks. Dallas and San Francisco are must win games in the next two weeks for the Rams to have a shot at the playoffs .... but this team is looking dangerous. This was the first time the Seahawks hadn’t scored an offensive touchdown since Week 1 in 2017.

The record doesn't always tell the real story

The Green Bay Packers are 10-3, in position to get a first round bye in the NFC, and yet … are they really that good? Put aside the record and Hall of Fame quarterback and just look at the last six weeks: Need a late touchdown to beat Matt Moore and the Chiefs, embarrassed on the road against the Chargers, barely survive the sinking Panthers in the snow thanks to a goal line stand, humiliated by the 49ers on the road, beat the hapless Giants and a rookie quarterback on the road in the snow and finally, struggle to put away the Redskins at home.

You could argue: The Davante Adams injury slowed them down ... and Rodgers is throwing to a lot of young guys. But how can you explain the 22nd rated defense? Folks, inability to stop the run is a bad thing in the NFC - the Cowboys have the No. 3 rushing offense, Saints fourth, Seahawks fifth and Vikings 12th. Well, I guess we see what happens against the Bears this week.

New England has some work to do

Well folks, the Patriots have major problems ... but we already knew that. They have now lost to all three other division leaders in the AFC in the second half of the season, and New England has major work to do offensively before the playoffs. Against an average defense - 15th according to Football Outsiders - the Patriots could only muster 278 yards and 4.5 yards per play. They were 2-for-12 on third down.

I know, I know they were robbed of a defensive touchdown on a bad whistle ... and then got screwed on a touchdown later in the fourth quarter as well. But the Patriots won the turnover battle (2-1), had a 21 straight win streak at home - there’s no skill position player coming in to save the day. Patrick Mahomes became the first quarterback under the age of 25 to beat Bill Belichick in New England since 2001 (Pats had been 29-0).

San Francisco has proven itself to be a bet-on team

Listen to this one: The Saints came into the game seventh overall defensively in the NFL - ninth against the pass and sixth against the run ... and they were proved powerless against the 49ers and Kyle Shanahan. In one of the best offensive games of the year, San Francisco averaged 8.2 yards per play while wracking up 516 yards. I think it's time for me to apologize to Jimmy Garoppolo for questioning him - he had four touchdown passes, and completed the crucial 39-yard pass to George Kittle in the final minute to set up the game-winning field goal. There’s no discernible weakness on this 49ers team ... and I don’t know who you’d favor over them in a playoff game.

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