Houston Texans

Week 16 NFL picks against the spread recap with Jason McIntyre | WHAT DID YOU LEARN?

Published Dec. 23, 2019 6:40 p.m. ET

Jason McIntyre

Well, how about my winning week? 3-2-1 and I'm feeling good. I'm hoping for an even bigger Christmas present this weekend with my Week 17 picks.

It was another exciting weekend, but when is it not in the NFL? I expected the Cowboys (7-8) to challenge my bet on the Eagles (8-7) at least a little bit ... shockingly it was smooth sailing for me all the way through. But if you were a 49ers fan you nervous - boy, have you had some games come down to the wire. Sorry Rams (8-7), better luck next year. And the NFC West just got wacky this week ... the Seahawks (11-4) losing to the Cardinals (5-9-1). It's all about injuries, which brings me to my first point of what we learned in Week 16:

The Texans need a receiver to step up in the playoffs to be a bet-on team

You never want to overreact to anything in gambling, but seriously, what happened here? Jameis Winston threw a pick-6 in the first minute ... and Tampa proceeded to turn the ball over five times. But Houston still couldn’t cover the number and had to settle for a push?! That’s just downright embarrassing.

The Texans scored one offensive touchdown, and led 17-3 ... but let the turnover-prone Winston clawed his way back into the game. The biggest injury takeaway here: The great Houston deep threat - also always-injured - Will Fuller, reinjured his hamstring and exited early. He’s going to miss Week 17 and most likely the playoff game. There's no doubt about it, DeShaun Watson needs Kenny Stills to step into Fuller’s role if the Texans have any shot of making it in the playoffs.

History helps ... but it's never a surefire reason to back a team

It seems as though the “We Quit” Jaguars showed up in Atlanta, unable to move the football and falling behind 14-0 less than six minutes into the game. I knew this possibility existed ... but I still couldn’t help myself. I loved backing them against a Dan Quinn team that had not covered the spread in its last 14 games against the AFC. I know, I know, there’s nothing predictive about that trend, but it did signify this: When the Falcons have an unfamiliar opponent, they are usually not prepared on either side of the football.

But, boy was I wrong. Atlanta had no problem here, racking up 518 yards on 7.1 yards per play and cruising to an easy victory. Jacksonville had a moment with a chance to cover, down 12 and moving the ball inside the Falcons 10 with five minutes to play ... a touchdown would have put them within the number. But Gardner Minshew couldn’t get them in the end zone (0-for-2 in the red zone is no way to cover the spread), and - well - that was that.

New Orleans at home and on the road is a bet-on team

It felt like the right side when Tennessee was up 14-3 in the 2nd quarter. It felt like the right side when the Titans repeatedly pressured Drew Brees and sacked him three times ... fun stat: Brees hadn’t been sacked in the three prior games. But ultimately, it was the wrong side. I made a dumb mistake going against New Orleans outdoors on the road (again). I did it earlier this year when the Saints went to Jacksonville. Yes, New Orleans has the biggest home field advantage in the NFL, but - the reality is - they also have the most road wins in the NFL in the last three years.

The NFC East is a downright disaster

Well folks, this was a rare big game where you didn't even break a sweat. Dak Prescott missed a lot of throws ... and his receivers dropped six passes. Ezekiel Elliott, who has tortured Philadelphia in recent years, only carried the ball 13 times while Dak threw 44 passes as the Cowboys trailed the entire game.

For such an explosive offense, Dallas had only two plays go 20+ yards, and none from Elliott or Amari Cooper (12 targets, four catches, 24 yards). The Eagles abused the Cowboys with its tight ends, as Dallas Goedert and Zach Ertz combined to catch 13 passes on 18 targets. But it’s not over! The NFC East is still up for grabs ... you won’t be able to bet against Philadelphia in the playoffs unless they beat the Giants next week.

The Chargers are not - and I repeat not - a bet-on team

Not that you needed further proof the NFL is a week-to-week league, but here you go: The Raiders lost their final game in Oakland last week, blowing the lead in the fourth quarter against disastrous Jacksonville. The narrative was that the Raiders were done. Toast. Especially without Josh Jacobs and Trent Brown.

The Chargers would demolish them! And sadly, I fell for it. Oakland had a massive home field advantage - in Los Angeles - which was pretty impressive. I keep asking myself why I repeatedly backed the Chargers this year: They must have failed to cover for me at least half a dozen times. Lesson learned.