National Football League

What happens if Jimmy Garoppolo Wins Super Bowl LVI?

Updated Jan. 18, 2023 11:03 a.m. ET

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By Martin Rogers
FOX Sports Columnist

The San Francisco 49ers aren’t a shy organization. They’re not averse to risk. They make bold moves in the trade market and they swing for success, not safety.

But are they bold enough to get rid of a quarterback who helps them win a Super Bowl?

That’s one of the questions we could soon be asking because, no, it is not overwhelmingly farfetched that San Francisco, having begun the season 3-5 and been on life support late in Week 18, could go and win this whole darn thing.

And, if that transpires, if they get by the Los Angeles Rams in this weekend’s NFC Championship Game (6:30 p.m. ET on FOX) and then win another, and it is Jimmy Garoppolo standing there hoisting the Vince Lombardi Trophy on Feb. 13, what on earth comes next?

Perhaps the story of the summer, that’s what.

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"It's always in the back of your mind," Garoppolo told reporters. "It has been in mine, you know, really this whole season."

What he was talking about, of course, was the generally-agreed assumption that he and the 49ers would be parting ways after this season. That idea has long been etched in stone, ever since San Francisco traded up to select Trey Lance with the No. 3 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.

NFL players, coaches and general managers scarcely talk in definitives, which is why football-speak is a language of its own, but all parties have come as close to saying Garoppolo will be packing his bags as it's possible to get.

"The more that we all can accept it and know it and not beat around the bush, the easier it is to go on with your jobs," head coach Kyle Shanahan said.

Never mind the words uttered, the actions of the team in April spoke loudest of all. A package concocted by general manager John Lynch and rubber-stamped by team ownership sent a trio of first-round picks to Miami to enable the 49ers to rise from No. 12 to No. 3 in the draft order. That pick, of course, was used to pluck Lance as Garoppolo’s successor, with the understanding being that Jimmy G would play one more season as a glorified placeholder.

Until very, very recently, it was all working out that way. San Francisco’s playoff ambitions were tenuous enough that Garoppolo’s friend, 49ers fullback Kyle Juszczyk, approached him before the regular season-ending clash against the Rams. If things didn’t go right that day, Juszczyk wanted to make sure Garoppolo knew how much he appreciated him.

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Many believe that Garoppolo is still going to leave, even after wins at Dallas and Green Bay. He certainly will if they don’t win the biggest game of all. But what if they do? "Newly-crowned Super Bowl Champs Offload QB" is not a headline you see.

In theory, San Francisco could keep him around for another year. To do so would cost them around $27 million. Such a scenario, however, would likely have him split time with Lance, for no one within the organization has shown anything but full faith in the young North Dakota State product.

In one sense, a Super Bowl triumph could even increase the likelihood of Garoppolo’s departure by improving his trade value. Nearly half the teams in the league aren’t in love with their current quarterback and the timing is interesting, with a subpar incoming QB draft class and a notable retirement in Ben Roethlisberger (and maybe even Tom Brady) sharpening the search for quality veterans even further.

Garoppolo has countless detractors but has also done enough, both in the regular season and the playoffs, to be a worthy option for several teams.

"He has never been the reason they’ve won a playoff game," FS1’s Nick Wright said on "First Things First" this week. "He has been bad in every single playoff victory for the Niners. In this year’s playoffs, he has been bad in both games. If we have a list of touchdown passes thrown this postseason, (Chiefs tight end) Travis Kelce is ahead of Jimmy G."

But it depends on what you prefer to look at. Garoppolo’s individual playoff statistics have been ugly. Against the Cowboys, 16-of-25, 172 yards and no touchdowns. Against the Packers, 11-of-19, 131 yards, no touchdowns.

And yet, his postseason record is 4-1, which looks beautiful to GMs whose teams haven’t tasted much playoff glory. His sole defeat came in the Super Bowl two years ago, a game the 49ers looked to have wrapped up before Patrick Mahomes led an offensive explosion.

Someone is going to talk themselves into thinking that going after Garoppolo is a good idea and if a solid trade package comes in, it would make things a lot easier for the 49ers.

"I knew what type of season it was, knew everything that was going on behind the scenes," Garoppolo said. "It was a little different. But at the same time, it's like you're saying you've got to toe that line because you don't want to get too emotional in those moments."

The strangeness of the hypothetical situation is what makes it so intriguing. The 49ers haven’t won a Super Bowl since the 1994 season. If they do it, they’ll really still get rid of the QB so quickly?

Maybe, yes.

Martin Rogers is a columnist for FOX Sports and the author of the FOX Sports Insider Newsletter. You can subscribe to the newsletter here.

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