National Football League

What is the NFL's best division? Let's debate!

Updated Aug. 21, 2024 12:12 p.m. ET

Across the board, our NFL writers were in agreement that the kings of the NFL lie in the North.

Which North is the question.

In projecting the NFL's best division for 2024, we were split almost evenly between the AFC North, a long-standing divisional powerhouse, and the resurgent NFC North. Formerly the black-and-blue division, the NFC North has a ton of young, physical talent that looks ready to contend now and in the future. The AFC North are the incumbents used to that physical brand of football both in the recent past and still in the present.

Does the NFC North have a case to overthrow the current regime? Let's lay it all out with an old-fashioned debate. Carmen Vitali and Greg Auman will do the honors.

The case for the NFC North

Let's be clear that in arguing between the two North divisions, in particular, we're splitting hairs. Both the AFC North and the NFC North are going to be extremely tough (and extremely fun) divisions to watch this season and beyond.

For argument's sake, though, let's split those hairs.

While the NFC North isn't as established as a powerhouse division as of late, if we're looking into a crystal ball, I bet we see that it will be for many years to come. It already has the Green Bay Packers, who have yet again seamlessly transitioned to another franchise quarterback, and this time, he helped the youngest team in the league to the playoffs in his first year as starter. The Packers have so much faith in Jordan Love that they made him the highest-paid player in the league, tied with Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence.

The other 2023 playoff team in the division was the Detroit Lions, who have suddenly become the team to beat after making it to the NFC title game. They, too, have a young yet productive core, with key players like Aidan Hutchinson, Sam LaPorta, Jahmyr Gibbs and Brian Branch under team control until at least 2026. They've also locked in their veteran guys like Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Penei Sewell to lucrative long-term deals. The Lions are planning to be pesky for a while.

Not to be outdone, here come the Chicago Bears. It's only been two preseason games with Caleb Williams, but there's optimism that he is indeed the Prince Who Was Promised. Combined with the fact that he has every offensive weapon a rookie quarterback could ever dream of having and a defense that could be a top-five unit in the league alongside him, the Bears could be competitive and push for the playoffs as soon as this season. General manager Ryan Poles has spent three years setting this roster up for sustained success.

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Then there are the Minnesota Vikings, who the football gods seem insistent on punishing yet refuse to die. Even with the injury to first-round pick J.J. McCarthy, they have Sam Darnold under the tutelage of a phenomenal coaching staff with multiple former quarterbacks on it. They have the offensive talent, too — especially when they get tight end T.J. Hockenson back from injury. The defense should limit the amount of points scored against them, so that even if the Vikings aren't thinking playoffs this year, they won't be an easy out.

That's the main thing this comes down to for me. Is the presumed fourth-place team in the NFC North (the Vikings) better than the presumed fourth-place team in the AFC North (the Steelers)? I think they are. Minnesota has the best wide receiver in the league and one of the most creative defensive playcallers armed with two potential double-digit sack artists. This all falls under the umbrella of Kevin O'Connell, who continues to be underrated for his efforts. I'd take Minnesota's roster over Pittsburgh's pretty quickly, and that gives the NFC North the edge as king in my book. — Carmen Vitali

The case for the AFC North

The best division in the NFL in 2024? It will be the AFC North, again.

Simple, inarguable facts here: All four teams in the AFC North — the Ravens, Browns, Steelers and Bengals — finished with winning records last season, giving the division the best record in football at 43-25. The NFC North, by comparison, was barely above .500 at 35-33, a full eight games back.

The Ravens reached the AFC Championship Game, the third straight year an AFC North team has done so, and while nobody is debating the Chiefs' status as the dominant NFL team in that span, their division has no depth to speak of below the defending champs.

But the AFC North? Last year's success came with Cincinnati's Joe Burrow playing only 10 games, and Cleveland's Deshaun Watson playing only six. Both are healthy for 2024, and that has raised the expectations for the Bengals enough that they finished fourth in their division but now are tied for the sixth-best Super Bowl odds in the league. Pittsburgh, which won 10 games with barely any help at quarterback, now has Russell Wilson and Justin Fields, who started a combined 28 games last year, instead of Kenny Pickett and Mitch Trubisky, who might not start any in 2024.

The oddsmakers in Las Vegas still think the AFC North is the best division in the NFL. Add up the Over/Unders for 2024 win totals, and the four AFC North teams are projected to win 38 games (again, that's conservatively five less than last year), two more than the NFC North as the next-best division.

FOX Sports' latest NFL power rankings also have the AFC North as the division to beat. Add up the rankings for each team and the AFC North — with three teams in the top 10 — has the lowest total, four spots ahead of the NFC North and 11 spots ahead of everyone else.

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I can see why there's excitement about the NFC North, with Chicago's Caleb Williams as the No. 1 overall pick and a reason for optimism in Chicago, and Green Bay's Jordan Love still ascending as he enters his second year as an NFL starter. Detroit is a legit Super Bowl contender, but Minnesota is probably taking a step back, going from Kirk Cousins to Sam Darnold, who steps in after J.J. McCarthy's season-ending knee injury. It's hard to make a case for them having four teams that are playoff contenders, as you can with their AFC North counterparts.

If we're debating the merits of two Northern divisions, we can also use an old hockey stat: plus-minus. On aggregate point differential from 2023, it isn't even close: The AFC North teams outscored their opponents by 199 points, and no other division is better than plus-57, with the NFC North checking in at plus-52. The NFC's top division will narrow the gap this coming season, but is it going to be 147 points better?

If anybody can keep the Chiefs from getting to another Super Bowl, it's the AFC North, whether it's Baltimore, which lost by seven points in last year's AFC Championship Game in Baltimore, or Cincinnati, which was tied with the Chiefs for a spot in the Super Bowl until the final three seconds two years ago and eliminated them the year prior. The Ravens have the league's reigning MVP in Lamar Jackson, and top to bottom, no division in football puts out dangerous, playoff-caliber teams the way the AFC North will again this season. — Greg Auman

Greg Auman is an NFL Reporter for FOX Sports. Greg is in his 10th season covering the NFL full time, having spent time at the Tampa Bay Times and The Athletic. You can follow him on Twitter at @gregauman.

Carmen Vitali is an NFL Reporter for FOX Sports. Carmen had previous stops with The Draft Network and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. She spent six seasons with the Bucs, including 2020, which added the title of Super Bowl Champion (and boat-parade participant) to her résumé. You can follow Carmen on Twitter at @CarmieV.