What San Francisco 49ers fans really want this holiday season — Part 11
Welcome to part 11 in our 49ers fans’ wishlist series. In this article, Niner Noise will cover the 49ers quarterback position. Like previous posts in this series, we will bring back a player from 49ers past and make offseason suggestions.
Dec 4, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Blaine Gabbert (2) drops back to pass during the game against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Caylor Arnold-USA TODAY Sports
Niner Noise assesses the quarterback position.
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Let me address this matter first before moving on in this article, I will not comment on 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick’s decision to protest the national anthem. Deciding if his public statement is right or wrong is up to each individual citizen to contemplate.
I will, however, discuss the impacts that his stance is having on the football side of things, but more on that later.
For now, let’s take a hard look at the 49ers passing game.
Contrary to popular belief, the effectiveness of the passing game is dependent on many components executing well. Three core components in any passing game comprises of the offensive line, the wide receivers and the quarterback.
The O-line did not make this series because, compared to last year’s performance, this group has done a much better job of protecting the QB. Sadly, this cannot be said of the 49ers WR corps.
If you want to read more on the WR corps read my assessment here. It’s not very flattering but then again neither was the group’s on-field performance.
This takes us to the quarterback position, which can be best described as a nightmare. And I am not talking about Tim Burton’s The Nightmare Before Christmas. No, QBs Colin Kaepernick and Blaine Gabbert’s play has been simply that — a nightmare.
Through 14 games, the San Francisco 49ers rank dead last in passing yards (2,467), completions (242) and net yards per attempt (5.2), per Pro Football Reference. It is not surprising the 49ers also rank dead last in first downs earned through the air (131).
While plenty of blame falls on the WR group’s inability to create separation, the QB play is the most damning to the effectiveness of the 49ers passing game.
Week 1 starter, Gabbert, took a major step back from his promising performance in 2015. Through six games this year, Gabbert has thrown five touchdowns to six interceptions with a QBR rating of 62.
For those unfamiliar with ESPN’s Total QB Rating system should visit their site at this link. The site does a much better job of explaining what Total QBR (or just QBR for short), than this writer could explain.
In a nutshell, it adds context to a quarterback’s true performance. For example, if two QBs complete a five-yard pass is it equal? It depends. Let’s say the first QB gained a first down by converting a 4th-and-3 while the second QB completed his five-yard pass on 3rd-and-10.
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That five-yard pass is obviously not equal in impact. ESPN’s QBR measure is better than traditional stats in that they go beyond the statistical analysis by adding value to the numbers.
For comparison, superior QB performance is a QBR at or above 75. A QBR of 50 to 60 is average. Anything below that is putrid.
Making matters worse for Gabbert is the fact that he has never had a winning season as a starting NFL quarterback. At best, Gabbert is a decent backup QB option. Head coach Chip Kelly figured this out pretty quickly and replaced Gabbert as soon as Kaepernick was ready to go.
Through eight games, Kaepernick has a stat line of 13 touchdowns, three interceptions and a QBR of 73.2. Remember that according to ESPN, a QBR of 75 is considered Pro Bowl-level performance.
Per Pro Football Reference, Kaepernick’s Total QBR is good enough for the No. 6 spot. Landing him ahead of QBs like Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers (No. 7), New Orleans’ Drew Brees (No. 12) and this year’s QB darling Oakland’s Derek Carr (No. 15).
However, even QBR does not tell the full story. Much of that inflation is attributed to Kaepernick’s ability to impact games through his legs. In Kaepernick’s case, it is best to go back to traditional stats like completion percentage and QB rating.
Using the traditional stats, Kaepernick comes in with a No. 31 ranking for posting a 55.5 completion percentage and a No. 23 ranking for netting a QB rating of 86.6.
Confusing matters more is the fact that Kaepernick has posted his third highest QB rating, which follows only his 2012 (98.3) and 2013 seasons (91.6). Another positive sign is this year he recorded the highest total QBR (73.2) for his career.
His biggest blemish this year is that 55.5 completion percentage. I must remind folks the wide receiver corps did no favors to 49ers quarterbacks this year. This brings up two questions: Do the 49ers want to move on from Kaepernick? And who will be available to play QB for the 49ers in 2017?
Do the 49ers want to move on from Kaepernick?
Let’s talk about the first question.
Kaepernick clearly outperformed Gabbert as the starting quarterback. But that’s not saying much. In some games this season, Kaepernick has played lights out. Just look up his stats against a tough Miami Dolphins defense. Then, you can see how he crashed back down to earth in the very next game against a weak Chicago Bears defense.
Kaepernick is the NFL’s enigma. Early in his career, it was clear former 49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh had the answer. A part of that winning recipe included a dominant running offense and a terror-inducing defense.
This covered for much of Kaepernick’s flaws as a passer. Unfortunately, the 49ers do not have a dominant running offense, and the team’s defense is less Freddy Krueger and more Sesame Street.
The team’s return to having a dominant running offense and smash-mouth defense is at least a two seasons away at best. In the meantime, the 49ers have an opportunity to replace Kaepernick.
This brings us back to question No. 2.
Who will be available to play QB for the 49ers in 2017?
This offseason, the 49ers can choose to release Kaepernick and replace him from three options: the NFL Draft, free agency or through a trade. The most likely scenario is that the 49ers draft a QB in the 2017 NFL Draft.
Less likely is the 49ers replacing him with a free agent. The crop of free agent QBs scheduled to be available are about as equal to Kaepernick in passing terms but offer nothing in the running game.
The third option, trading for a quarterback, is intriguing but hard to assess. One, the amount of capital required to trade for a quality quarterback will come at a high price. The 49ers need all of their available resources to address multiple positions, so they may not want to execute a trade. Two, the other team must be willing to make a trade in the first place.
Many fans have clamored for New England Patriots backup QB Jimmy Garoppolo. Yet, his stock was never higher than what it was earlier this season and no trade occurred. My guess is New England wants to keep Garoppolo as their future QB.
Oct 9, 2016; Cleveland, OH, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo (10) against the Cleveland Browns during the fourth quarter at FirstEnergy Stadium. The Patriots won 33-13. Mandatory Credit: Scott R. Galvin-USA TODAY Sports
So more realistically, the 49ers will look at the draft and free agency for possible QB replacements. More on this topic in the slides to come.
Still, the first question goes unanswered. Do the 49ers want to move on from Kaepernick? Why would the 49ers work with him on a restructured contract? If yes, then why would an owner actively support him in such a controversial social stance?
The 49ers CEO, Jed York, went as far as donating to Kaepernick’s charitable organizations, as reported by our very own Peter Panacy.
The truth is that neither the 49ers nor Kaepernick know what each party wants to do. For now, the decision will be left for the offseason. After which, both parties can assess the battleground.
It is quite possible the team’s general manager Trent Baalke is fired at the end of the season. It is also possible that current head coach Chip Kelly could follow Baalke out the door.
There are so many variables that the decision to return/cut Kaepernick is not realistically possible. Even if the team wishes to return Kaepernick, Kaepernick worked an opt-out clause into his contract allowing him to move on from the 49ers with no strings attached.
While many fans would welcome a Kaepernick departure, these same fans need to be prepared for a year with 2017 still at the helm. Just because Kaepernick hits free agency does not mean that he will be signed by another ball club.
One thing is for sure, Kaepernick has always been a polarizing figure. Early on, analysts commented on his appearance and how his tattooed arms were inappropriate for an NFL starting quarterback. As his career has gone on, the more extreme opinions have become of Kaepernick.
Oct 6, 2016; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick (7) kneels during the national anthem before the game against the Arizona Cardinals at Levi
This season has done him no favors in that regard. As it is widely known, Kaepernick became the face of a social activist movement causing even more mixed opinions towards him. In the face of that sharp criticism, the 49ers front office stood by his decision to take a stand.
As reported by Bleacher Report’s Mike Freeman, who wrote in his article that NFL front offices, “Truly, truly hate him” and, “They [NFL front offices supporting his protest] seem to be far outnumbered by the members of NFL front offices who despise him.”
He may test the open market and find out that his best option is to return to the 49ers. Considering the overall weak grades of college quarterbacks coming out this year and the overall weakness of the free-agent class, the 49ers might be interested in keeping Kaepernick for one more year.
Of course, that all depends on who is running the front office in 2017.
Sep 14, 2015; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers former players Joe Montana, Ronnie Lott, and Jerry Rice laugh on the sideline during the second quarter against the Minnesota Vikings at Levi’s Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
Joe Montana
(Former San Francisco 49ers quarterback, Member of Pro Football Hall of Fame)
What can Niner Noise say about Joe Montana that hasn’t already been said?
If Jerry Rice is known as the Greatest of All Time, then Joe Cool must be the greatest QB to have ever played the game.
No. 16 was simply that exceptional. In his Hall of Fame career, Montana won four Super Bowls and earning Super Bowl MVP awards for three of them. He is an eight-time Pro Bowler and was voted All-NFL three times.
Montana is simply the best QB ever. Others believe New England Patriot’s quarterback Tom Brady has surpassed Montana as the greatest ever. But, here at Niner Noise, we do not subscribe to such blasphemy.
If Brady wants that top perch, he needs to make up for all of those Super Bowls he lost. This writer says two more Super Bowl wins will move him past Montana as the best. But until then, Brady is No. 2.
Montana never lost a Super Bowl that he played in. Now, that’s impressive.
Dec 19, 2016; Landover, MD, USA; Washington Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins (8) attempts a pass against the Carolina Panthers during the first half at FedEx Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
Kirk Cousins, QB, Washington Redskins
The likelihood of Washington Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousin’s hitting the open market are fairly slim.
This year Cousins has earned the franchise tag that Redskins used on him. Per Pro Football Reference, Cousins boasts an impressive 67.5 completion percentage and a QB rating of 93.8. Both numbers would be an improvement over both Gabbert and Kaepernick.
Still, Kaepernick’s total QBR (73.2) ranks higher than Cousins (58.2). Even Gabbert’s total QBR (62) beats out Cousins.
However, there are not very many other intriguing options once you remove Cousins from the list of available options. Again, Cousins is more likely going to be signed to a lucrative deal with the Redskins.
This leaves the 49ers looking at players like New York Jets QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, Los Angeles Rams QB Case Keenum and Chicago Bears QB Brian Hoyer. If Coach Kelly gets one more season and the growing sentiment is that he will, then none of these QBs fit his scheme.
Only Cousins has enough athleticism to be running option in Kelly’s scheme.
Leaving only one option to replace Kaepernick — the NFL Draft.
Sep 10, 2016; Champaign, IL, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels quarterback Mitch Trubisky (10) throws a pass against the Illinois Fighting Illini during the 1st quarter at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mike Granse-USA TODAY Sports
Mitch Trubisky, QB, North Carolina Tar Heels
Making an early draft prediction, this writer targets Tar Heels quarterback Mitch Trubisky to be this year’s Carson Wentz. Last year, most had not heard of current Philadelphia Eagles QB Carson Wentz.
Then suddenly, Wentz’ draft stock exploded. While many draft analysts had a second-round grade on Wentz, he still ended up going No. 2 overall in the 2016 NFL Draft. Trubisky stands to follow in the same path.
Boasting an impressive array of traits, Trubiksy is considered a good quarterback prospect. According to Walter Football, Trubisky is projected to be a first- to third-round prospect. Standing at 6-foot-3 and weighing 220 pounds, Trubisky has good measurables for the position.
Trubisky has been very accurate in 2016, putting up impressive numbers, such as his 69 percent completion percentage. In addition, Trubisky has thrown for 3,468 yards with 28 touchdowns and four interceptions.
Check out this highlight reel of Trubisky below. Notice how he also operates aspects of Chip Kelly’s zone-read offense:
Watching film on Trubsiky has left scouts enamored with his game. Seemingly, the only wart scouts have of Trubisky is his limited playing experience. Starting for one season has hurt his draft stock. Still scouts have him rated highly.
Check out this article that compiles what scouts are saying about Trubisky – article link.
In that same article, ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. states he sees Trubisky as the only QB in this year’s draft worthy of being selected in the first round. Still, Kiper acknowledges Trubisky will not be able to play right away.
Aside from this year, Trubisky has no other games under his belt. For this reason, Kiper believes there is a chance Trubisky decides to return to North Carolina. Even if he does declare, teams would be wise to use a so-called bridge-veteran QB to allow Trubisky to become acclimated to the speed of the NFL game.
This is also a part of the reason this writer believes Colin Kaepernick may return to the 49ers. This may end up being a blessing in disguise. If Kaepernick develops into a quality starter in Kelly’s system, that would be good for all involved — the team, Kaepernick, and the fans.
Even those fans who would rather see Kaepernick go will welcome him back if he starts playing really well. Those that are saying they won’t are either lying to themselves or are holding his protest against him.
If Kaepernick struggles, that would still allow a rookie QB to have more time to develop before he is forced to go out and face a tough NFC west division.
Of course, what the team does in the 2017 offseason will depend on who the team’s general manager will be. This leads into the final piece of the this 12-part series which will be published on Christmas Day.
Check back in then and see the No. 1 item at the top over every fan’s holiday wish list.
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