National Football League

What should you expect from the Cowboys in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft?

Updated Apr. 25, 2023 2:59 p.m. ET

We've reached the end point of yet another draft season, with the actual selections set to begin in a few short days. As is customary, the Cowboys signaled the end of their preparations with a robust press conference — 40 minutes of sound and fury, signifying nothing.

Mercifully, it's almost time to stop talking and start drafting.

"We may be interested in going down, or maybe up. Or we might sit there, but keep us on your mind," said Cowboys owner and general manager Jerry Jones.

Roger that. So, as usual, all options are on the table. Good to know.

In fairness to the Cowboys brain trust, it's a tough year to figure all this out. Sitting all the way back at pick No. 26 in the first round, Dallas is subject to the whims of many other teams before they'll have a chance to sway the draft board. As chief operating officer Stephen Jones noted, even a bold trade up would likely require the right set of breaks in the top half of the first round.

"You can read all of the mock drafts, you can see all of the things that we're told quietly by other general managers, but you'll never know until you're there," he said.

Clearly, predicting the pick is a shot in the dark, at best. So rather than worry about a narrow scope, let's think bigger. Using the clues we have available to us, as well as some deductive reasoning, we can build a strategy that should tell us what to expect from the Cowboys on Thursday night — and to some degree, even the two days beyond.

Expect running back to be a focus

Where else could we start?

Joel Klatt's Top 50 Players in the 2023 NFL Draft feat. Bijan Robinson & Tyree Wilson

Joel evaluated the best prospects and broke down which players moved on his list. Bijan Robinson continued to shine as Joel compared him to 49ers Pro Bowl running back Christian McCaffrey.

Naturally, Bijan Robinson will remain at the epicenter of the Cowboys' draft coverage until Thursday night. Robinson had a phenomenal career just down I-35 at Texas, and the need is obvious. If the devaluation of the running back position pushes him down the board, Dallas would be ecstatic to take him.

Don't just take my word for it; listen to Stephen Jones.

"If you happen to see a back there at the bottom of the first that's rare and unique and falls because he's a running back then I would have to be thinking we'd be considering it, especially if we thought he should have been picked in the top half of the draft," Jones said on Monday.

With all due respect to Alabama's Jahmyr Gibbs, that quote could only be in reference to Robinson, who is widely regarded as one of the best prospects in this draft class. In a year that Stephen Jones estimated will see the Cowboys have 15-18 first-round grades, it's a very good bet Robinson would be the highest-rated player on their draft board if he were to fall all the way to 26.

That's a Texas-sized "if," though. For all the debate about the value of the running back position, Robinson is talented enough to hear his name called much earlier — though his selection will be one of the most intriguing storylines of Thursday's proceedings.

Even if Robinson is long gone, don't be surprised if the Cowboys are on the lookout for ball carriers. Team officials were sure to say that Tony Pollard is on track in his recovery from a broken fibula, and they even praised the rookie contributions of Malik Davis. Ronald Jones also signed with the Cowboys during free agency.

Pollard is still playing on a one-year franchise tag, though, so it shouldn't be a surprise to see the Cowboys insure themselves here at some point over the weekend.

"As we go through the draft, if there is a good running back there, I can't imagine he is not going to get a lot of attention in terms of what he can do for our football team," Stephen Jones said.

How high of a priority is tight end?

This is the angle that has picked up a ton of steam in the last few weeks.

Make no mistake, the Cowboys are interested in drafting a tight end to add to their duo of Jake Ferguson and Peyton Hendershot. Among the 30 pre-draft visitors they were allowed to host at their facility, they invited as many as five tight ends — most notably, Georgia's Darnell Washington.

Their interest in Notre Dame's Michael Mayer, regarded by many as this year's best tight end, has also been well-documented. Is that enough to prompt them to draft Mayer — or anyone else — in the first round?

Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy was asked about the criteria for a first-round tight end on Monday, and he identified three criteria: the ability to be the "Y," or the traditional in-line tight end, the ability to move into the backfield and to different parts of the formation and the ability to flex out wide and function as more of a wide receiver.

That's an apt description of Mayer's game. But if the Cowboys aren't married to the position in the first round, that also describes the likes of Washington, Oregon State's Luke Musgrave, South Dakota State's Tucker Kraft and Michigan's Luke Schoonmaker. Maybe it's not the first position added, but it has the chance to be — and even if not, it feels like a position they'll want to address early.

Jahmyr Gibbs & Dalton Kincaid: Top 30 picks in the 2023 NFL Draft

Joel Klatt went through his 2023 NFL mock draft. He analyzed former Utah TE Dalton Kincaid and former Alabama RB Jahmyr Gibbs. Joel explained why Dalton Kincaid could be a great addition for the Dallas Cowboys offense and help Dak Prescott.

Would a trade up be worthwhile? Jerry Jones has built an ironclad reputation as the wheeling, dealing, fearlessly gambling general manager who will stop at nothing to get his guy.

It's a fun persona, and it's based in truth. Across 34 years of ownership, Jones has swung massive trades, for better and for worse — Herschel Walker and Joey Galloway come to mind.

The boring truth is that recent history has been a lot more uneventful. With the draft serving as their primary means of talent acquisition, the Cowboys have been mostly unwilling to part with major resources in the last decade. The obvious exception was the decision to send a first-round pick to the Raiders in exchange for Amari Cooper. They also parted with a third-round pick to move up and draft DeMarcus Lawrence in 2014.

Other than that, the Cowboys have been content to stand pat and make their big picks, opting to occasionally trade back instead of jumping up the board.

This is merely an educated guess, and maybe it'll age poorly, but I'm not sure that's going to change in 2023. Between the strength of the Cowboys' roster and the (relative) weakness of this draft class, it just doesn't feel like the value is there. As Stephen Jones also pointed out, the position that typically drives an aggressive trade is quarterback, and this team is firmly, financially committed to Dak Prescott. "There is the occasional different one where someone's going to get a big-time receiver or big-time pass rusher. But in general, when you look at most of those big, big trades, whether they're giving up multiple, multiple picks, ones, twos, ones next year, is quarterbacks," Jones said.

It's hard to envision the player who would drive that type of decision. Premium linemen like Will Anderson and Jalen Carter aren't going to fall anywhere near the Cowboys' range, and there isn't a receiver worthy of such a move. Perhaps the answer is Robinson, should he slip into the late teens or the early 20s. Given the valuation of the position, not to mention the wealth of running back prospects further down the board, even that feels like a stretch.

Smart money says the Cowboys are much more likely to stay put and make their pick. Considering their track record over the last decade, there's nothing wrong with that.

David Helman covers the Dallas Cowboys for FOX Sports. He previously spent nine seasons covering the Cowboys for the team’s official website. In 2018, he won a regional Emmy for his role in producing "Dak Prescott: A Family Reunion" about the quarterback’s time at Mississippi State. Follow him on Twitter at @davidhelman_.

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