National Football League

What trading for Browns WR Amari Cooper means for Josh Allen, Bills

Published Oct. 15, 2024 4:01 p.m. ET

Amari Cooper is, for the most part, exactly what the Buffalo Bills needed. So the match made sense, even with the Bills giving the Browns a third-rounder and seventh-rounder in exchange for Cooper and a sixth-rounder on Tuesday.

Cooper is a poor man's Stefon Diggs.

From a contract standpoint, it's quite literal: Cooper is set to make almost nothing, just $870,000 while with the cap-strapped Bills in 2024. So while he was expensive in terms of trade/draft compensation, he's cheap by the dollar. He's also a perimeter receiver with excellent technique and separation abilities who can beat both man and zone coverage consistently.

Or — he was. That's why I said he's what the Bills needed … for the most part.

If you look at the advanced statistics, you'll see that the 30-year-old Cooper isn't as good a player as last year. In 2023, he recorded career-bests with 1,250 receiving yards and 259 receiving yards over expected, per Next Gen Stats. His YAC over expected was 113, the second best of his career. His separation was his worst: 2.2 yards per route targeted. But Cooper didn't seem to have slowed. If anything, he was likely facing a lot of double coverage.

In 2024, it's easy to see why he's having one of his worst years: Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson is the falling tide that sinks all ships. And so Cooper is recording fairly awful numbers, with a negative receiving EPA (-.85), negative receptions over expected (-8.2) and negative receiving yards over expected (-174). The numbers are either comparable to or worse than his rookie season.

The Bills need to hope that Cooper isn't declining, that those numbers are merely a reflection of Watson. That's where the risk comes into play for Buffalo. And that's probably why Cleveland was willing to part ways with the wideout.

But the truth should emerge quickly. Buffalo will put him right to work.

The Bills offense needs help, particularly in the passing game.

Josh Allen is completing 62.8% of his passes and is putting up 193.3 yards per game, his worst averages in those categories since 2019. His success rate (43.3) is also the worst it's been since 2019, per Pro Football Reference. He's not amassing the numbers that are typical for him as a passer. Allen has remained aggressive, with a 7.7% big-time throw percentage (highest of his career) and a 5% turnover-worthy play (second highest of his career). He may have zero interceptions, but he's lucky to have that clean sheet.

The Bills' plan without Diggs has not quite panned out. They wanted to have a group of players who could challenge defenses — without relying heavily on a single guy. But that idea has steadily eroded as no one has gotten open consistently in recent weeks.

Tight end Dalton Kincaid was supposed to be like Travis Kelce. Receiver Keon Coleman was supposed to help fill the vacuum on the perimeter that Diggs left behind. Mack Hollins and Curtis Samuel each stood to contribute in the passing game. Those players have not grown into their roles as quickly as GM Brandon Beane must have expected.

That's the gap Cooper needs to fill. Maybe he won't produce like Diggs, but he needs to get open as the primary read with some reliability.

It's an interesting mea culpa from Beane.

To some degree, Allen has followed in the footsteps of Patrick Mahomes for his entire career. Allen was just one step behind Mahomes in entering the draft, in getting his elite WR, in getting his big contract and in losing his elite WR. To a degree, it seemed like the Bills were following the Chiefs' roadmap to Mahomes' success. This is the first major deviation, with the Bills going out of their way to acquire an elite receiver after saying goodbye to Diggs.

It's an important acknowledgment: Allen is not Mahomes. There's only one Mahomes. Allen needs more help than he was getting this season, and the Bills were not going to unseat the Chiefs without additional firepower on offense. Rather than watch Allen toil in the passing game — and probably take too many hits as a scrambler — the Bills decided to upgrade. They decided to not make things so difficult for their quarterback.

If Watson was the reason for Cooper's struggles this year (and that's the most likely explanation), the Bills might have just pulled off the perfect plug-and-play trade to fuel a Super Bowl run. And even if Cooper isn't quite what he once was, the Bills will spend the third round of the 2025 NFL Draft thinking about him.

Prior to joining FOX Sports as an NFL reporter and columnist, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.

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