National Football League

What We've Learned In The NFL So Far

Updated Jul. 14, 2021 3:46 p.m. ET

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By Geoff Schwartz

Well folks, we’ve almost reached the halfway mark of the NFL season – Monday Night Football is all that's left – after an NFL weekend that saw some semblance of a return to order.

Let’s get into what I’ve learned through the first half of the year. 

There’s two clear tiers of Super Bowl-caliber teams. The first tier of teams is set in stone. They could play their game and win the Super Bowl. The second tier of teams have some flaws, but if they get hot, could make their way to Tampa. 

Tier 1 – Super Bowl Teams

Kansas City Chiefs

I’m a de facto Chiefs fans because of my family, and every game they leave on Sundays with Mahomes standing upright is a win in my book.

The Chiefs offense is nearly impossible to stop, even with an offensive line that’s had changes. Look at the Super Bowl from last season. The San Francisco defense played a near perfect game for 50 minutes and it STILL allowed 31 points.

On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs have continued to improve their pass defense, as Kansas City sits third in defensive EPA on passing plays. KC can rush the quarterback with Frank Clark and Chris Jones, so they can disrupt the passer, and, the Chiefs have the easiest schedule for the last nine weeks of the season.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Right now, the Bucs are a Wild Card team, but I don’t expect them to end the season this way. Tampa Bay continues to improve on offense, rising up in offensive efficiency with each passing week. Tom Brady is getting more comfortable with his weapons and they’ve added Antonio Brown.

The offensive line is outstanding and Tampa Bay has multiple running back options. On defense, the Bucs can stress the offense in the most effective ways. They rush the passer with four, meaning they can have more defenders in coverage. Their pass defenders can all run, including their linebackers, which is how you must defend in 2020 with offenses so geared towards passing the football.

I think Tampa Bay will continue to improve heading into the postseason.

Pittsburgh Steelers

In a classic black-and-blue division game, the Steelers went into Baltimore and beat their rival. It wasn’t pretty, but when you’re playing a physical game against a top AFC contender, it will get ugly.

The Pittsburgh defense continues to impress with its ability to make life miserable for opposing quarterbacks and force turnovers, returning another interception for a touchdown on Sunday. On offense, Pittsburgh does just enough to be dangerous. I’d like to see a more vertical passing game, as they could stress a defense in better ways. Plus, if their defense has an off day, the offense can pick up the slack if they get more explosive. I’d imagine they’d find ways to work on this as the season continues. 

Seattle Seahawks

This is a nod to Russell Wilson, who’s the MVP favorite so far. He’s just been outstanding and the Seahawks offense has been letting him cook.

The Seahawks entered this weekend with one of the top-ranked passing offenses and that was unchanged after their victory over the 49ers. The Seattle offensive line has played better than expected and I see no reason to doubt their offense heading down the stretch.

However, the Seattle defense...yikes.

It played well for three quarters on Sunday before morphing back into its 2020 form, allowing the Niners passing game to take off and make it close. I do not trust this defense in the playoffs, but I do trust Russell Wilson.

Tier 2 – Super Bowl Hopefuls

Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens have lost to the Steelers and Chiefs, the two best teams they’ve played this season, and I have no confidence in this team in the playoffs.

Their offense isn’t what it was last season. That’s clear. Lamar Jackson is 25th in expected points added this season. The Ravens offensive line lost future Hall of Fame guard Marshall Yanda in the offseason and then lost All-Pro left tackle Ronnie Stanley on Sunday.

The Baltimore run game has suffered somewhat with the losses on the offensive line – even though the Ravens ran for 265 yards on Sunday – but I think where we see the line struggle is in passing situations. It’s not all on the offensive line, as Jackson’s accuracy and decision-making is an issue this season.

On defense, the Ravens continue to be great. They have ball-hawks in the secondary and get into the quarterback's face with pressure. I just need to see them beat a Super Bowl-caliber team to put them in the top tier.

Green Bay Packers 

The Packers just appear to not give a damn way too often. Where is the fire?

The Minnesota Vikings had lost three straight to the Packers and were 1-5 off a bye in the last six seasons. They aren’t a good team, yet they dominated the Packers, especially on the ground. The Vikings offense ran through the Packers rushing defense like a hot knife through butter. That’s an issue, as physical teams continue to dominate on the line of scrimmage against them.

Aaron Rodgers is a fantastic front-runner, but when he’s playing from behind, it’s hard to trust this team. 

New Orleans Saints

I’m not sure what to make of this team. They are winning, but winning ugly. That’s better than losing pretty.

Drew Brees is out there throwing Jamie Moyer fastballs, but he’s being effective. Alvin Kamara might be the only running back I’d pay. The defense entered the weekend ranked 10th, so they are a balanced attack.

I think my reservation about them is I believe Brees' arm will continue to weaken through the season and New Orleans has underachieved the last two postseasons, losing home games as the favorite both seasons.

Tennessee Titans

Their defense can’t get off the field. It’s that simple with them.

Offensively, they’ve taken a step back without left tackle Taylor Lewan, but the Titans are good enough with Ryan Tannehill to score enough points.

But that defense? Can’t trust them to stop a nose bleed on third down.

The Next Group

While I’m not developing a third tier, it’s important to acknowledge eventual division winners in the Buffalo Bills, Indianapolis Colts and Philadelphia Eagles.

The Bills have an outstanding coaching staff, but they aren’t good enough as a whole to make a deep playoff push. Ditto for the Colts, who have Phillip Rivers at quarterback, a player I don’t trust at all in the playoffs. And lastly, someone has to win the NFC East. Seems like it’s the Eagles. But they are well below average. Carson Wentz keeps regressing and their play calling is suspect. 

The Rookie QB Class

Joe Burrow, after being drafted first overall by Cincinnati, was given the starting job heading into the season. He’s playing behind possibly the worst offensive line in the NFL and making lemonade out of lemons. While his efficiency numbers are just okay, it’s clear that Burrow has "swag" and the confidence to be an elite player in the NFL.

He’s got "it."

Justin Herbert, the sixth pick in the draft, has made the Los Angeles Chargers' offense electric since he was added into the lineup. After Sunday's games, Herbert is 11th in composite CPOE/EPA. That’s fantastic for a quarterback who the staff didn’t even want to play.

Herbert was inserted into the lineup in Week 3 after Chargers team doctors punctured Tyrod Taylor’s lung before the Chiefs game. The Chargers staff does deserve credit for forcing Justin Herbert to be aggressive. In college, his Oregon offense was run through the ground attack, with Herbert being asked to basically "not screw it up."

Now, it’s clear the Chargers told Herbert "you’re the guy" and he’s been everything they thought he could. He’s been money down the field, against pressure and when on the move. But of course, the wins aren’t there because the Chargers go into a shell on offense when they get a lead. 

Tua Tagovailoa made his first start of the season for the Miami Dolphins against the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday and it was just a blah game. He was 12-for-22 for 93 yards and one touchdown. The goal was clearly to limit mistakes, and let the defense and special teams do the work. Not much to take away from his first start other than the Dolphins benched a quarterback who had them in the playoff hunt for Tua, so they must feel he’s special.

Return to Order

The first five weeks of the NFL season saw scoring at levels we’d never seen in the league – over 50 points per game and the over was hitting just at 60 percent.

As defenses appear to catch up after missing an entire offseason of practice and the weather is starting to turn, defense has reemerged. Heading into this weekend, the under hit 59 percent in Weeks 6 and 7, and we saw some lower scoring again on this NFL Sunday. 

We also saw the underdog make a triumphant return! Including Thursday Night Football, dogs went 9-3 against the spread this weekend. Even more exciting for gamblers was the return of the home underdog covering games, a staple of the sharp gambler. The Dolphins, Bengals and Broncos all won as dogs, with the Bears covering in an overtime loss to the Saints.

I believe we hit the correction button this weekend, and moving forward, we can expect some normality to return to the gambling world.  

SB Windows Close Fast

Unless your quarterback is elite – and that’s only a handful of signal-callers in the NFL – you better win the Super Bowl when you have the chance. Otherwise, you’re not getting back to the dance. 

The San Francisco 49ers were winning the Super Bowl with under 10 minutes left. The Chiefs scored 21 unanswered points and won going away. Now, the 49ers won’t make the playoffs and there’s serious questions about the future of Jimmy Garoppolo in San Francisco. The window has closed with him at quarterback.

The Rams offense looked unstoppable in 2018 en route to a Super Bowl appearance and eventual loss to the New England Patriots. The Patriots appeared to find Jared Goff’s weaknesses, mainly the fact that he can’t operate in a true drop-back passing attack. The Rams offensive line was poor last season and they couldn’t run the ball, which forced Goff to be uncomfortable in the offense.

This season, when the Rams offense is on-schedule, Goff looks competent. But when it’s not, he looks like he’s never played football before. The Rams loss against the Dolphins on Sunday magnified those weaknesses. LA can’t win a Super Bowl with him. 

Tom Brady vs Bill Belichick

Bill Belichick is the best coach of my lifetime and I’m sure I could make a compelling argument he’s the best coach in the storied history of the NFL. However, Tom Brady has clearly won their divorce.

The Patriots dynasty is officially over. Their mystique disappeared with a Cam Newton fumble deep into the red zone on Sunday, as the Patriots were attempting to come from behind to beat the Bills, something Belichick has done 35 out of 40 times as the Patriots head coach.

The Patriots have the worst roster of starting skill position players in the NFL. Since Cam Newton returned to the lineup after he missed time with COVID-19, he’s looked like a below-average quarterback. The defense is trying to keep up, but they’ve lost too many players to opt-outs and free agency.

The Patriots need a total rebuild from the bottom up and while we should give Belichick the benefit of the doubt, I have my worries about this team being a viable Super Bowl contender in the next five years.

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Geoff Schwartz