National Football League

What's next for the Vikings, and how close are they to being true contenders?

Updated Jan. 17, 2023 7:37 p.m. ET

The dust has settled a bit from the Minnesota Vikings' early postseason exit at the hands of Brian Daboll's Giants. A new series of questions have emerged: Who are these Vikings? Are they terribly different from the middling team Minnesota has gotten used to — one not good enough to grasp a Lombardi Trophy, but not bad enough to have a high draft pick? Is there a reason to actually mean ‘next year' with your whole chest?

Forgive me for being the eternal optimist, but I think so.

Look, I know I'm new on this beat. I haven't had to suffer through multiple agonizing and puzzling defeats. I haven't had to come "that close" year after year. I haven't had to live the reality of "pulling a Vikings" for a long period of time. So I understand why those of you who have don't care for sunshine and rainbows from the new kid on the block.

But sometimes a fresh perspective is exactly what it takes to see the light.

What if I told you in a head coach and general manager's first season they would lead a team to a 13-4 record, a division title for the first time in six years and a playoff berth?

That would sound pretty good, objectively. That's exactly what Minnesota did. And just because that team wears purple and gold doesn't mean it's still not pretty good.

As thin as patience is wearing for a Super Bowl-starved franchise, you can't hold the sins of previous regimes against this new one. Not that anything in this industry is fair, but they literally had nothing to do with it. They inherited a good, not great, team and have found ways to win all season long. They aren't making the same mistakes they were, either. Kirk Cousins had a 112.9 passer rating in a nationally televised playoff game, for crying out loud.

This season featured different issues. What was once a defense-first team under head coach Mike Zimmer now struggled in most major defensive categories. They finished the regular season letting up the second-most total yards. The pass rush was anything but consistent despite having Za'Darius Smith and Danielle Hunter on either edge. The secondary was a constantly rotating cast of characters that gave up an average of 209.3 points per game.

The saving grace for the Vikings in the regular season was that their defense could still generate takeaways. They finished the season tied for eighth in total takeaways with 25 (15 interceptions, 10 fumbles). Those takeaways also seemed to come just in the nick of time to help them pull out close games.

The Minnesota defense was the reason the Vikings were in so many one-score games. But they were also the reason the Vikings won so many one-score games.

Until they weren't.

That steady-Eddie cover-2 scheme deployed for most of the year ran out of juice in the first round of the NFC playoffs. Minnesota failed to record a takeaway for the first time since their loss to the Green Bay Packers in Week 17. Before that, it was their loss to the Detroit Lions. The Vikings went 1-3 when failing to record a takeaway this year.

It means they recorded at least one takeaway in all but one of the one-score games they played this season. That's 10-of-11. So, it shouldn't come as a surprise that when they failed to do that, they lost.

Why Vikings' biggest concern revolves around Justin Jefferson's future

The Minnesota Vikings fell short against the New York Giants with a 31-24 loss at home. Despite Cousins' solid game, Colin Cowherd expresses a bigger concern for Minnesota: Justin Jefferson's future, with a huge contract request imminent.

Change needs to come for the defensive side of the ball. Following the game, O'Connell wouldn't entertain any talk of making a change at the coordinator level, but you have to think it's on the table. It's nothing against Ed Donatell, who has engineered some dominating defenses over the course of his 31-year NFL coaching career. But with a frustrating lack of adjustments over the course of this past season, it's fair to wonder if the game has passed him by.

The Vikings can also help themselves with personnel, which should be the top priority of Kwesi Adofo-Mensah. Their interior defensive line could use a better rotation, and they definitely need more secondary help.

Veteran cornerback Patrick Peterson is due to be a free agent this offseason. Spotrac estimates his market value is about $6.4 million per year based on comparable players and performances. Is that worth it? Especially when this looks to be a decent enough cornerback class (especially at the top) coming out of college?

The Vikings are between a rock and a hard place in overall capital this offseason. They are estimated to be $8 million over the salary cap going into next season and have just four picks in this year's draft.

They're going to have to make some tough decisions on veteran contracts and the 34-year-old Peterson could be the first casualty.

Wide receiver Adam Thielen could be another, which would undoubtedly handicap the offense. Thielen, while older, was somewhat of a security blanket for Cousins, giving him a viable option when Justin Jefferson was double-covered. The trio of Jefferson, Thielen and T.J. Hockenson ended up being a pretty lethal combination, with Dalvin Cook helping to get the play-action game going. The offense wasn't the issue this year, and ideally, you'd like to keep as much of it intact as you can.

Thielen's cap hit is scheduled to be $19.9 million in 2023. However, if Minnesota released or traded him post-June 1, they could save $13.4 million in 2023 off the cap. Thielen and his family seem to see the writing on the wall, too. His wife posted that their time in Minnesota could be up.

The Vikings also have to make a decision on center Garrett Bradbury, who is due to be a free agent. His market value is listed at $11.2 million, according to Spotrac but his value to this team in particular is probably higher than that. Bradbury missed the last five weeks of the season and in that time, Cousins was sacked 16 times. Left tackle Christian Darrisaw missed some of that same time, as well, and right tackle Brian O'Neill was lost for the season in Week 17 during the Packers game. O'Neill will hopefully be back healthy and Darrisaw already looks to be one of the best at his position going into next season, but a center to anchor it all together — preferably one that is already familiar with Cousins — will be paramount to the offense's success.

Here's where it gets even more interesting, though. Cousins takes up the lion's share of the cap next year, unsurprisingly, but if they were to trade him post-June 1, they could shave $30 million off the cap in 2023, according to Spotrac.

The question that remains is, who could they trade him for? As previously stated, Cousins wasn't the issue this year. He seems to be flourishing in O'Connell's version of this offense and has all the support he needs. Moving him now would solve their cap issues, sure, but they'd be hard-pressed to find a better alternative for this offensive system. And if they were to seek a new QB, he would not come cheap.

The good news is, and I know most Vikings fans are going to hate to hear this, but Minnesota is close. They don't need a ton of additions this offseason to fix their issues. O'Connell and Adofo-Mensah have earned the chance to sustain success. The fans just need to let them.

Carmen Vitali covers the NFC North for FOX Sports. Carmen had previous stops with The Draft Network and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. She spent six seasons with the Bucs, including 2020, which added the title of Super Bowl Champion (and boat-parade participant) to her résumé. You can follow Carmen on Twitter at @CarmieV.

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