National Football League

What's really wrong with the Titans? Optimism in Houston? AFC South analysis

Updated Dec. 13, 2022 4:25 p.m. ET

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Ben Arthur

AFC South Reporter

There's a reality starting to cement for the Titans. It was reinforced Sunday, when Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence diced up their secondary — a 71.4% completion rate for a career-high 368 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions and a 121.9 passer rating — as Tennessee failed to inch closer to securing a third straight division title. 

For the Titans, the key stat in the game was zero. That's the number of times Tennessee sacked Lawrence. 

Pass rushing, the Titans' biggest strength the past couple of years, has emerged as one of the team's most visible weaknesses. 

"There's no secret to affecting the quarterback," coach Mike Vrabel said Sunday. "You got to have some guys that go rush and get them. And when we pressure, we have to be able to get there quicker."

It's not just the Jaguars game. The Titans have just four sacks combined since Week 11, averaging one per outing in that span — while they averaged more than 2.8 sacks per contest in their first nine games of the season. 

The Titans' last two opponents (the Jaguars on Sunday, the Eagles the previous week) have been able to abandon the run and pick apart an already shaky secondary because their pass rush can't get home. 

Tennessee was tied for a league-high 34.3% pressure rate in Weeks 1-10, according to Next Gen Stats. From Weeks 11-14, the team's pressure rate has dropped to 20.2%, third-worst in the NFL in that span.

Under Vrabel, the Titans have been very good at overcoming injuries to key personnel. Think last season, when Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown missed a combined 13 games and the team used 91 players — an NFL record for a non-strike season — yet still won 12 games en route to the AFC's No. 1 playoff seed. Think this season, with all the early pass-rush success despite the absence of outside linebacker Harold Landry III, the Titans' sack leader last season out for the year with a torn ACL. But it appears that the injuries to the defensive front have become too much for the Titans to bear. 

Their recent pass-rush struggles coincide with the absence of veteran defensive lineman Denico Autry, the team's sack leader (7), who hasn't played since suffering a knee injury in Week 11 against the Packers. He's out indefinitely. 

"I hope so," Vrabel said when asking if Autry is any closer to returning.

Not only has Autry been unavailable, but star defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons has been limited at the same time. An ankle injury, initially suffered in Week 7 and reaggravated in Week 9, has impacted his effectiveness for more than a month. 

Vrabel acknowledged Monday that Simmons is not 100 percent. 

"That's something we have to manage," Vrabel said of Simmons' injury. "I appreciate his willingness to help us and manage it and get through and do everything he possibly can to get to the games."

Texans deserve some praise despite disappointing finish against Cowboys

We could talk about how the Texans let another game slip away. How they were inside the 5-yard line with a fresh set of downs holding a three-point lead down the stretch on the Cowboys and found a way to lose. But we already know Houston is bad. For a team already eliminated from playoff contention, an examination of whether it is giving up or improving is perhaps most productive. 

The latter was the case Sunday in Houston's 27-23 loss to Dallas.

Despite the rough ending, the Texans had a strong performance against the Cowboys, one of the NFL's best teams this season. Dallas' 98-yard game-winning touchdown drive aside, Houston held one of the league's elite offenses to 20 points through more than 59 minutes of game time. Cowboys star receiver CeeDee Lamb was held to 33 receiving yards, his second-fewest in a game this season, despite top cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. (hamstring/illness) being inactive and fellow starter Steven Nelson (ankle) ruled out during the game. 

Elliott's late-TD leads Cowboys to narrow win vs. Texans

The Cowboys were the largest favorites of the season (-17.5) against the Texans, but it took an Ezekiel Elliott rushing touchdown with under a minute left to secure a 27-23 win. Skip Bayless explains why Cowboys fans should actually be emboldened by Dallas' Week 14 performance.

Overall, the Texans' defense had two interceptions — both by cornerback Tremon Smith — and had a goal-line stop at the 1-yard line. Houston scored 23 points, its second highest single-game total this season, finding success with a two-quarterback system of Davis Mills and backup Jeff Driskel. The special-teams unit also recovered a muffed punt. It was a solid performance, just shy of a complete one that would've been the most stunning upset of the season. 

That's something for the Texans to build on for the last four weeks of the regular season.

"There's a lot we would like to duplicate from what we did [Sunday]," coach Lovie Smith said Monday. "We'll need to." 

Why Colts won't be making a change at quarterback

No, the Colts won't be turning to Nick Foles or back to second-year pro Sam Ehlinger at quarterback. Matt Ryan remains the starter, at least through Saturday's game against the Vikings, interim coach Jeff Saturday said Monday. 

How Saturday explained it? The turnovers that have plagued Ryan is in large part due to the play of those around him: the offensive line, receivers, tight ends and running backs.

Indianapolis has a league-high 26 giveaways, including 18 from Ryan (an NFL-high 13 interceptions, five lost fumbles).

"Here's the reality: You can't put all of [the turnovers] on him," Saturday said. "There's been a number of different things. … From the outside looking in, you want to attribute all those to one guy and if I could, that would be an easy position to change … but that's not the case."

It's tough to see the downside of at least trying Foles, though, considering Indianapolis is still (barely) alive in the playoff race — the Colts have a 4% chance with four games left, according to FiveThirtyEight — and the hopeless state of an offense that hasn't truly improved all season. 

More from the NFL:

• NFL playoff picture: Which teams are in, who's still in the hunt
• NFL Power Rankings, Week 15: Bengals, 49ers join top 5 as Dolphins fall
• Trevor Lawrence, Jared Goff rise; Tua, Tom Brady fall: NFL notes and analysis
• Tyreek Hill on chasing 2,000 receiving yards: ‘I want to continue to get better’
• Lions hot against the spread; Sportsbooks win thanks to Jets' late field goal
• Panthers have real playoff hopes despite upheaval. Steve Wilks deserves credit
• Eagles first team to clinch playoff berth, but they're looking for much more
• Cowboys' struggles are concerning, but more important tests lie ahead
• Justin Herbert sizzles while Tua Tagovailoa struggles in marquee matchup
• In win over Jets, Bills prove they're getting into Super Bowl shape
• Jaguars earn convincing win over Titans to stay alive in AFC South race
• Cowboys pull escape act, but win over Texans raises concerns
• NFL odds Week 14: Lines, results for every game

Ben Arthur is the AFC South reporter for FOX Sports. He previously worked for The Tennessean/USA TODAY Network, where he was the Titans beat writer for a year and a half. He covered the Seattle Seahawks for SeattlePI.com for three seasons (2018-20) prior to moving to Tennessee. You can follow Ben on Twitter at @benyarthur. 

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Tennessee Titans

Indianapolis Colts

Jacksonville Jaguars

Houston Texans

Trevor Lawrence

Matt Ryan

Harold Landry III

NFL - Houston Texans vs. Dallas Cowboys - 12/11/2022

NFL - Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans - 12/11/2022

Ben Arthur