National Football League

When do we start taking the Jets seriously as a playoff contender?

Published Nov. 1, 2023 2:09 p.m. ET

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Henry McKenna

AFC East Reporter

There are so many reasons to be dubious of the New York Jets.

It goes back to before the team signed and quickly lost Aaron Rodgers to injury. It goes back for decades, through the Butt Fumble and their coach tripping a player and their fans setting the stadium on fire. It's torturous to be anything but dubious of the Jets. They have basically failed to meet expectations ever since Joe Namath left.

But coach Robert Saleh has made that more complicated since his arrival in 2021. The team doesn't have a winning record under his leadership (15-26), but it does have a winning record (4-3) in 2023. The Jets are gaining momentum, even after losing Rodgers to an Achilles injury on the opening drive of the season. Over the next two weeks, New York has two more winnable games (vs. Chargers, @ Raiders) before a pair of matchups with the heavyweights in the AFC East (@ Bills, vs. Dolphins). 

What if the Jets are 7-4 at that point? 

Then it's not crazy for them to pick up a few more wins in the back third of their schedule and earn a playoff spot. The New York Times put a realistic projection on their playoff standing: 30%. There's a path for the Jets to make the postseason run they dreamed of making when they acquired Rodgers.

But … like I said: There are so many reasons to be dubious of the Jets.

Let's start with their quarterback, Zach Wilson. He actually showed growth last weekend, with a pair of clutch drives — one at the end of regulation and one in overtime. It might be the first time the Jets won in part because of Wilson. (They've spent his three-year career trying to win despite him.) And while it was a milestone for Wilson, we can't ignore that he held the team back on basically every other drive. 

He completed just 47% of his passes for 240 yards and a touchdown. He might not have thrown an interception, but he had a pair of fumbles (one on the exchange with a third-string center) and he took four sacks despite having more than three seconds to throw on average. That includes a fourth-down sack with 1:30 left in the game (and down three points). His EPA (expected points added) was -16.8. It contributed to his 31st-best EPA pre dropback (-.23). But again, he led those drives — an encouraging sign.

New York seems intent upon sticking with Wilson throughout the season — or until Rodgers comes back. And Rodgers really, really, really wants to come back this year from his Achilles injury. He has stated multiple times that he wants to beat every projected timeline and play for the Jets again this season. The brass in New York kept saying things like, that would be cool. But general manager Joe Douglas changed his tune on Tuesday.

"I am not a doctor, so I can't go into the specifics on the rehab, but yeah I mean we are expecting Aaron to be back," Douglas said.

That's new. As much as the phrase is couched, it's also there: The Jets expect Rodgers to return this year. And, again, it's easy to doubt that. Not only is that timeline overly optimistic for a 39-year-old, but it might also put the guy in harm's way. Returning from injury too fast can lead to another injury — or reinjury. That seems like a risky prospect, even as Rodgers shows unprecedented progress with his weekly pregame throwing routines on Sunday (which feel a tad performative).

I'll be honest — I doubt Rodgers' screw-science bravado. And while he is likely to prove me wrong and return to miraculously strong form, it's fair to wonder if it's worth the risks involved. Why not think about 2024?

Aaron Rodgers continues to hint at early return to Jets

But the Jets are giving him reason to want to return. This team could absolutely be 2-5. But the Jets beat Denver, upset Philly and squeaked out a win over the Giants. They've now won twice in overtime. They've never won by more than 10 points. They like to keep things tight — even going back to last year. They have someone on staff to specifically coach the team on how to deal with late-game situations to elevate execution in gotta-have-it moments.

That included, for example, the way the Jets handled their game-tying field goal against the Giants. Third-string center Xavier Newman got the ball spotted and snapped with one second left on the clock after Wilson threw a deep pass down the middle of the field. As receiver Allen Lazard caught the ball, it did not look like the Jets would be able to get the ball snapped and spiked. It looked more like a situation where New York would unceremoniously fail, with Wilson making a bad decision (throwing over the middle without any timeouts) that would get him burnt by media for the ensuing week, further casting into doubt his future with the team. 

But the spike saved him.

"Credit to Newman to sprint his butt down, grab the ball, look for the side judge to just put the ball down before the ref, so he could tap it, which saves us about a half a second to a second," Saleh said this week. "To Zach and everyone just getting their feet in the ground and spiking the ball and the clock operator for having a quick trigger. Just all of it was perfectly executed. That clip will be on the teach tape for many teams around the League. It'll be a teach tape clip at least for our offense, or for a lot of coaches for many, many years because you can't execute it any better."

He's right. And it's a credit to the Jets that they keep doing it. So while it's easy to take the skeptical approach and think New York's late-game wins aren't repeatable, Saleh & Co. continue to prove that they are. And that's, in part, a product of his elite defense, which has excelled in games with and without its star players.

When the Jets beat the Eagles, they were without top cornerbacks Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed. Those are two players it seemed the team couldn't live without, given New York's lack of depth at the position. But the defensive line played so well that it compensated for the talent issues in the secondary. The Jets generated 24 pressures on Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts' dropbacks. That's absolutely wild. Their five sacks were also impressive, given how challenging Hurts can be to bottle. Philly has allowed just 19 sacks through eight games.

You have to take that defense seriously. There's no question. 

Just ask Hurts. 

Just ask Josh Allen, who threw three interceptions in Buffalo's loss to the Jets in Week 1.

The doubt just keeps going back to the offense. It will need to support Wilson through the season. And, potentially, it will need to support Rodgers if he returns. 

The final doubt that's worth addressing is the offensive line. Guard Alijah Vera-Tucker, tackle Duane Brown and center Connor McGovern are on injured reserve. Rookie Joe Tippmann, who has started a game at center, has been out with an injury. The Jets have patched together a unit that works, for now. But Saleh indicated it might hamper the offensive creativity down the stretch.

"How creative you can get offensively starts with your ability to protect the quarterback," Saleh said this week. "The longer you can protect him, the more creative you can get in route design. The better the run game works in all of it, so we feel good about the five guys we have, every time we step on the field. It's just about getting them to work together and getting that cohesion on the field."

Jets offense looks to step up in Week 9 vs. Chargers

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Wilson's decision-making is linked to how well he sees the field, and that's linked to how well his line protects him. Given how New York lacks explosiveness on offense, it can't afford turnovers and bad decisions from Wilson. That's what sank the Jets during their three-game losing streak from Weeks 2 through 4.

I know I haven't really answered the question in the headline: When do we take the Jets seriously? It's because I don't know. 

They seem to be on the cusp of collapse with frustrations leaking out of the locker room. (Just look at Dalvin Cook, Breece Hall, Mecole Hardman and so many others who have spoken openly when they're upset with the coaching staff.) But even with that near-collapse, they win. Even on the night they lost Rodgers, they upset the Bills. None of it makes sense. 

They have an easy schedule. They have a plucky attitude and an impressive head coach and a hurt-but-headstrong QB who wants to make a momentous return from injured reserve. 

Maybe it's time we take the Jets seriously. Maybe we start taking them seriously — right now. Or maybe, just as we do that, they fall to the Chargers in Week 9.

Prior to joining FOX Sports as the AFC East reporter, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.

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Henry McKenna