National Football League

Who will win the AFC North? Ravens, Browns, Bengals, Steelers all are inconsistent

Updated Dec. 13, 2021 3:32 p.m. ET

By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

What is the AFC North? Does anyone know? The division is a roller coaster.

Unlike the other seven divisions in the NFL, the favorite to win the AFC North changes by the week.

In Week 14 alone, three of the four teams in the division lost, and the only team to win (Cleveland) nearly blew a 24-3 lead to a divisional foe that had lost its starting quarterback.

So, with less than two games separating first place from last place and just four games remaining in the regular season, let's forecast how the AFC North is going to shake out:

1. Cleveland Browns (7-6)
Week 14: Won 24-22 over Baltimore
Remaining games: vs. Raiders, at Packers, at Steelers, vs. Bengals

I’ll default to the Browns because they are fairly healthy and own the most talented roster in the division. They made the playoffs last season and won’t wilt in the face of the postseason pressure over the final month.

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Cleveland has one of the NFL's best offensive lines, even with the injury to right tackle Jack Conklin. The line is the foundation of the Browns offense, because quarterback Baker Mayfield is not to be trusted. Mayfield consistently makes critical mistakes that hurt his team.

Take Sunday for example. The Browns scored two touchdowns and a field goal in their first four drives. After a Ravens punt, Mayfield immediately threw an interception. On the next drive, Baltimore dropped another would-be interception.

In the second half, Cleveland had four drives, which resulted in three punts and a missed field goal. That output came against a Ravens defense that’s below average in efficiency and was playing without multiple starters due to injury.

The Browns' quarterback play is just not good right now, but the sum of the parts on offense should help them score despite the woes of their quarterback.

The Browns defense has a pass rush that’s hard to rival and a secondary that has improved throughout the season. There should be no worries on this side of the ball, and Cleveland owns the best defense in the division.

The Browns will be favorites in three of their last four games. They host the Raiders, who are lifeless at the moment. They travel to Green Bay and Pittsburgh, then end the season at home with the Bengals. They should win three of their last four and take the title in the AFC North.

2. Cincinnati Bengals (7-6)
Week 14: Lost 26-23 to San Francisco (OT)
Remaining games: at Broncos, vs. Ravens, vs. Chiefs, at Browns.

The Bengals are a classic young team that is learning how to win. When they go on a small winning streak and their name starts to appear at the top of the standings, they lose to the Jets or get blown out by the Chargers.

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It’s hard to win in the NFL, but it’s even harder to win when you’re supposed to win. And teams who haven’t been in that spot before often struggle with their first experience. That is the 2021 Bengals.

Plus, Cincinnati is a far more exciting team at quarterback, running back and wide receiver than their efficiency numbers would show. The Bengals entered their game against the 49ers as the 19th-ranked team, according to Pro Football Outsiders. They rank 23rd on offense and 15th on defense. The other division leaders in the league are ranked first, second, fourth, fifth … you get my point.

However, the Bengals do have a few things going for them. Outside of Joe Burrow’s finger injury, they are relatively healthy — especially compared to the Ravens — so I give them a slight edge.

However, Cincinnati has some tough games down the stretch, so navigating the final month will not be easy.

3. Baltimore Ravens (8-5)
Week 14: Lost 24-22 at Cleveland
Remaining games: vs. Packers, at Bengals, vs. Rams, vs. Steelers.

I want to make it clear: John Harbaugh, his coaching staff and this team deserve all the praise for their play this season. The Ravens are 8-5 with an injured reserve lineup that’s better than some starting lineups in the NFL.

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Eventually, it becomes impossible to remain competitive when you lose 10-plus starters. It’s that simple with the Ravens.

Their hope for success was Lamar Jackson being Superman, but now their quarterback is dealing with an ankle injury from their loss at Cleveland on Sunday. Jackson was trying to do too much, and he has been throwing too many interceptions, and the run game wasn’t there.

The Ravens' chances for a postseason berth will fittingly end with the one injury they couldn't afford.

4. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6-1)
Week 14: Lost 36-28 at Minnesota
Remaining games: vs. Titans, at Chiefs, vs. Browns, at Ravens.

The Steelers have yet to finish with a losing record under Mike Tomlin, and maybe their tie against the Lions will prevent that from happening this season. But they aren’t a good team at the moment.

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Part of that is simple: Big Ben is old, and we are seeing the decline of his career. The offensive line is young and still trying to come together. The Steelers have decent skill-position players, but once again, their QB can’t make any plays.

And then on defense, the wheels have fallen off. Pittsburgh entered its Thursday night loss to the Vikings with the 27th-ranked defense, and the Vikings proceeded to dominate them on the ground all game.

Pittsburgh does not have the ability to punch back right now. But if you’re a Steelers fan, adding a quarterback in the offseason should instantly boost the team's fortunes.

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.