National Football League

Why can't Tyreek Hill win NFL MVP? 'The Dolphins go as Hill goes'

Published Dec. 7, 2023 4:26 p.m. ET

Tyreek Hill is the most unguardable player in the NFL.

Despite all the awful offenses and backup quarterbacks that have graced our television screens this football season, the league is supposed to be predicated on speed, skill and flashy home-run plays.

Hill is the definition of that.

In the first half against the Washington Commanders last Sunday, the Dolphins’ star wide receiver scored a 60-yard and 78-yard touchdown. He barely played in the second half and finished with only 31 snaps.

Imagine if he went the distance.

"Miami has a legit shot at a No. 1 seed because of Tyreek Hill," longtime Las Vegas oddsmaker Dave Sharapan told FOX Sports. "Tua [Tagovailoa] is a very nice player, but anybody with a brain knows the Dolphins go as Hill goes."

Hill is on pace to grab over 2,000 yards worth of footballs and break the NFL’s receiving record, set by Calvin Johnson in 2012. He has 611 yards after the catch, and there’s a world where he scores 20 touchdowns for a team that was predicted to finish third in the AFC East behind Buffalo and New York.

Tell me again, why a receiver can’t win MVP?

All season long, the lazy sportsbook narrative has been to make the quarterback of the perceived "best team" the favorite. Bookmakers have shifted the top of the MVP board like a sneakerhead changes shoes.

Josh Allen and Joe Burrow were the preseason favorites, but Tua Tagovailoa set the early pace after the Dolphins blasted the Denver Broncos by 50 points. Then Patrick Mahomes became the favorite. Then it was Jalen Hurts after the Eagles beat Kansas City.

Then Brock Purdy happened against Philly.

Purdy threw for 314 yards and four touchdowns in a lopsided 42-19 victory over the aforementioned Eagles — and Hurts, mind you — so FanDuel Sportsbook slashed Purdy’s MVP odds from 14-1 to 3-1.

Can Tyreek Hill become the FIRST receiver to 2,000 receiving yards for the Dolphins?

NFL MVP odds at FanDuel:*

Brock Purdy, 49ers: +300 (bet $10 to win $40 total)
Dak Prescott, Cowboys: +325 (bet $10 to win $42.50 total)
Jalen Hurts, Eagles: +350 (bet $10 to win $45 total)
Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs: +650 (bet $10 to win $75 total)
Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins: +950 (bet $10 to win $105 total)
Lamar Jackson, Ravens: +950 (bet $10 to win $105 total)
Tyreek Hill, Dolphins: +1500 (bet $10 to win $160 total)
C.J. Stroud, Texans: +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
Christian McCaffrey, 49ers: +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total)

*odds as of 12/7/2023

"Award markets are the worst to book," Sharapan explained. "The absolute worst. I’m glad I don’t have to do it anymore. We’re trying to handicap what 50 MVP voters think while also balancing bets that come across the counter.

"It’s very tough."

Sharapan took a deep breath before he continued.

"But the overreaction move is a great discussion in the back room. It’s mostly to stop taking bets. A move from 14-1 to 3-1 is a move to halt. You’re not really offering much at 3-1. You want to bet it? Fine. If you don’t, move on.

"When you make a number on a football game, and it plays out to a different script, you’re okay because you’re taking bets on both sides. The voting aspect is a different beast in the book. Guys rise and fall for 17, 18 weeks.

Imagine the MVP odds if Philadelphia upsets Dallas.

"And why does it have to be a quarterback?" Sharapan pondered. "The McCaffrey discussion was white-hot early, and now he’s an afterthought.

"It’s just a silly market altogether."

Things could get reaaaally interesting if Hill continues his wide receiving tear across the league. He’ll have plenty of eyeballs on him, too. Up next, Miami faces Tennessee on Monday Night Football. After that, high-profile battles are on deck against Dallas, Baltimore and Buffalo.

Maybe I’m just trying to speak it into existence...

My biggest fear is the voters just look at the quarterback on a team that finishes 13-4 and say he’s the league's Most Valuable Player by default.

"The easy way out is to just take the quarterback of the best team," Sharapan said. "But remember, Dak has padded his stats against a ton of bad teams. It’s worth looking a little deeper into the numbers and situations."

Dallas scored 40 points against New York in their first meeting, 38 on New England, 43 on Los Angeles, 49 on New York the second time around, 33 on Carolina and 45 on Washington.

Not exactly a murderer's row.

I’ll be holding out hope the MVP voters come to their senses. You can’t elevate one guy for beating up on bad teams but penalize another one.

That ain’t fair.

"If Tyreek Hill does something that’s never been done in the history of the NFL, it should be a much bigger deal," Sharapan summarized.

"If he breaks the receiving record, he’s as live as anybody."

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.