National Football League

Why Dallas Cowboys' Super Bowl run will boom or bust

Updated Jan. 18, 2023 11:04 a.m. ET

By Matt Mosley
Special to FOX Sports

ARLINGTON, Texas — The biggest boom-or-bust team in the NFL postseason has to be the Dallas Cowboys.

They were so obsessed with breaking records that coach Mike McCarthy kept his starters in for most of the 51-26 victory over an Eagles squad resting its starters on Saturday.

If you go by the numbers, Dak Prescott just completed one of the best regular seasons in club history, with 37 touchdown passes and 10 interceptions. Never mind that his play declined sharply for about six weeks, starting in November. Following the Week 18 win, McCarthy joked about Prescott's "slump," suggesting that it was something created by the media.

So which Cowboys team will show up in the playoffs, starting with their wild-card game against the 49ers on Sunday (4:30 p.m. ET on CBS)? Let's look at three reasons the Cowboys (12-5) could make a run at Super Bowl LVI and three reasons they could fall flat on their faces.

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THREE REASONS THE COWBOYS COULD MAKE A SUPER BOWL RUN

1. This defense is the real deal.

Defensive coordinator Dan Quinn had such a dramatic impact on the Cowboys' defense that he's now a hot name as a head-coaching candidate. Fortunately for Dallas, he declined an interview with the Jaguars and seems to love his current gig.

A team that was supposed to be fueled by a big-play offense is now built around its defense. Linebacker Micah Parsons might not win Defensive Player of the Year, but no one in the league has been more dominant. And Parsons has a pretty good feel for what he's accomplishing.

"There is nobody like me," Parsons told the Dallas Morning News. "I feel like you can easily find a good pass-rusher. Look at Myles Garrett. Look at T.J. Watt. But you can’t put them against any running back in the NFL.

"You can get a good linebacker. Look at Eric Kendricks, Fred Warner. They can cover, but they can’t pass-rush like I can. I don’t see them guard receivers like I can. Really, the tape speaks for itself."

What Niners QB Jimmy Garoppolo did Sunday against the Rams was pretty spectacular, but the Cowboys have a way of making teams pay for mistakes. This defense is looking to score at all times, and it boasts four players (Parsons, Randy Gregory, DeMarcus Lawrence and Trevon Diggs) who can wreck game plans.

Niners coach Kyle Shanahan and Quinn were on the same staff in Atlanta and know each other well, but I think Quinn has more weapons.

2. The most dangerous offense outside of Green Bay might reside in Dallas.

It doesn't always show up, but the Cowboys are loaded on offense. They have future Hall of Famers at left tackle and right guard. Even with Michael Gallup out for the season, Cedrick Wilson has emerged as a great option as the third wide receiver. Troy Aikman has been saying for years that the third receiver is what helped fuel some of his great Cowboys teams.

And here's something you won't read anywhere else: Tony Pollard is about to get 20 touches in a game. The Cowboys have kept Zeke Elliott in the lead role, but Pollard is quicker and more rested. He could be one of the breakout players of the postseason.

3. Make no "Bones" about the special teams.

Jim "Bones" Fassel has restored his reputation as a difference-maker in the league. I thought McCarthy was way too dependent on Fassel last season. But this year, Fassel's unit has blocked three punts and had a kick returned for a touchdown. He is more creative and daring than other special-teams coaches.

He also has a lot more say than most special-teams coaches. What has changed this season is that McCarthy does a better job of managing Fassel. Interestingly, when Quinn filled in as head coach in early December when McCarthy was out due to COVID protocols, Quinn basically ignored Fassel. But I think McCarthy has learned that calling on Fassel in certain moments can be a great thing.

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THREE REASONS THE COWBOYS COULD FALL FLAT

1. Dak Prescott can't put three games together.

It's a good sign that Prescott functioned well in cold weather against the understaffed Eagles, throwing five TD passes. The Cowboys could eventually have to visit Lambeau Field, and Prescott has been known to struggle in cold weather.

Dallas points to games against Washington and Philly to suggest that its QB is ready to roll. But those teams were compromised late in the season.

Prescott's excellent overall numbers are misleading. He hasn't beaten a good team since a road win over the Patriots in Week 6. He has been so inconsistent with his accuracy and decision-making that it's hard to imagine a deep run in the playoffs. His willingness to run has added something to the offense, but his inability to diagnose opposing defenses is the biggest reason the Cowboys could bow out Sunday.

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2. This defense isn't great against the run.

Teams gash the Cowboys for long gains. On Jan. 2, the Cardinals were missing their starting left tackle, running back and best wide receivers against the Cowboys, but they ran wild early and often. This is a Dallas defense that is great at getting takeaways, but it's susceptible to the big play. The defense has given up 14 runs of more than 20 yards, which is third-worst in the league.

Shanahan stuck to the run against the Rams on Sunday, and it helped the Niners eventually overcome a 17-point deficit. The Cowboys are so aggressive on defense that they sometimes take themselves out of plays. The old adage is that you have to first stop the run. Arizona came out and ran on the Cowboys immediately, and it took until the fourth quarter for Dallas to find its footing.

3. A shaky kicker could undermine everything

I hate to devote a "reason" to a kicker, but Greg Zuerlein has missed six field goals and six extra points this season. This week, Jerry Jones sounded like a man who understands that he has an issue at kicker but doesn't have a solution.

Listen to what Fassel had to say about Zuerlein: "I think it’s just psychological, and there’s actually something we’re going to do to help him out a little bit that we talked about. But yeah, I think the biggest part is having confidence that this thing is going right down the middle every time."

Ahhh, yes, that sounds great. The Cowboys just need their kicker to take some really good mental reps this week.

The Cowboys have completely trusted Fassel with the kicker. And he might be the most creative special-teams coach in the biz, but these visualizing exercises with Zuerlein could sway the season.

This franchise has a love/hate relationship with kickers. Bill Parcells even dealt with Mike Vanderjagt on the downside of his career. The two took a dip in the cold tub one time, but I'll save that story for another day.

Teams can be too loyal to kickers with great reputations. That could be the Cowboys right now. We'll see if it costs them.

Matt Mosley has covered the Cowboys for The Dallas Morning News, ESPN, FOX Sports and Texas Monthly Magazine. He also co-hosted afternoon-drive radio in Dallas for 10 years and is now heard on ESPN Central Texas, home of his alma mater, Baylor. He makes regular appearances on "The Herd" on FS1 and Fox Sports Radio.