National Football League

Why DeAndre Hopkins should succeed for Titans though other great WRs failed

Published Jul. 18, 2023 4:59 p.m. ET

In 2010, Randy Moss — one of the best receivers of all time — played for the Titans.

It was an eight-game stint to end the year. He posted just six receptions for 80 yards and no touchdowns for Tennessee. He retired after the season. (He returned for the 2012 season with the 49ers, then retired again, for good.)

Six years after Moss, the Titans signed another high-profile wideout: Andre Johnson, one of the best receivers of his generation who had for years given Tennessee fits with the divisional-rival Texans. But his on-field results with the Titans weren't much better than Moss': nine catches, 85 yards, two touchdowns. After eight games, Johnson informed the franchise that he was retiring.

And just two years ago, the Titans traded for Julio Jones — one of the NFL's most dominant receivers of the 2010s, a player who was supposed to help elevate them into Super Bowl contention. But he played just 10 games for Tennessee in the 2021 season, posting what were then his career-lows in receptions (31), receiving yards (434) and receiving touchdowns (1). He was cut after nine months with the team.

Multiple times, the Titans have failed on gambles of star receivers past their prime.

What reason is there to believe that the addition of 31-year-old DeAndre Hopkins, who's reportedly signing a two-year deal with Tennessee worth $26 million plus incentives, will pan out any differently?

Start with his numbers.

A three-time first-team All-Pro selection, Hopkins was still one of the NFL's most effective receivers in limited appearances with the Cardinals last season (nine games). His 79.7 receiving yards-per-game average ranked 10th in the NFL, higher than pass-catchers such as Travis Kelce, Terry McLaurin and DK Metcalf. Among the 42 receivers who had at least 60 receptions last season, Hopkins ranked 18th in expected catch rate (66.7%), which quantifies the aggregate level of difficulty of a set of targets, according to Next Gen Stats.

Hopkins had only one drop on 95 targets last season, per ESPN Stats and Information, another example of his dependability. The five-time Pro Bowler missed eight games last season, but just two were due to injury — Weeks 17 and 18 (knee). His most recent production gives him instant credibility as one of the Titans' top two wide receivers alongside Treylon Burks.

Why DeAndre Hopkins chose Titans over Patriots

When Moss played for the Titans, he was in his age-33 season. He'd already spent time with two other teams that year — the Patriots and Vikings — before being claimed off waivers by Tennessee.

When Johnson signed with the Titans, he was in his age-35 season. He'd already been showing decline for years (936 receiving yards in 2014, 503 receiving yards in 2013).

And when Jones was traded to the Titans for his age-32 season, the nagging hamstring injuries that limited his availability had already shown up the previous year with the Falcons.

Hopkins may be out of his prime, but his tape and circumstances are more encouraging to Tennessee than the other legendary wideouts it brought in.

And that's enough to justify the move.

"I always loved having haters and doubters but I appreciate it even more," Hopkins tweeted Sunday. "Titan up!!"

How will Titans use Hopkins?

The Titans will surely utilize Hopkins where he has been successful in his decade-plus in the NFL — on the left side of the formation and catching passes outside the numbers.

Through Week 16 last season, Hopkins had aligned on the left on 91.8% of snaps since 2020, the highest rate of any wide receiver on one side, according to Next Gen State. And from Weeks 7-15 in 2022, he was plus-4.3 receptions over expected outside the numbers, second in the league in that span, per NGS. His proficiency near the sidelines could be useful in hurry-up situations before halftime and at the end of games, where time is valuable in results that often come down to a score.

Titans offensive coordinator Tim Kelly's experience with Hopkins — Kelly was the Texans' playcaller from 2019-21, when the receiver was in Houston — also factors into the team's favor.

Hopkins played 30.7% of his snaps from the slot — the second-highest rate of his career — with Kelly in 2019, one of three years Hopkins was named a first-team All-Pro. The next year, he played a career-low 9.2% of snaps out of the slot and a career-high 90.6% of snaps out wide, per PFF. The drastic change in usage is indicative of the creativity Kelly could use in 2023.

It plays into why Hopkins should be much more than just an old receiver past his prime in Nashville.

Ben Arthur is the AFC South reporter for FOX Sports. He previously worked for The Tennessean/USA TODAY Network, where he was the Titans beat writer for a year and a half. He covered the Seattle Seahawks for SeattlePI.com for three seasons (2018-20) prior to moving to Tennessee. You can follow Ben on Twitter at @benyarthur.

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