National Football League

Why Dolphins would collapse without either Tyreek Hill or Tua Tagovailoa

Updated Dec. 13, 2023 4:56 p.m. ET

The Miami Dolphins found themselves in an uncomfortable situation on Monday night.

Or rather, they found themselves in many uncomfortable situations. Worst of all, they saw the Tennessee Titans erase a 14-point lead over the final three minutes for a comeback win. Miami's defeat was historic: Of the last 767 games in which a team was down by 14 points with under three minutes left, none had come back to win.

The Dolphins' reputation has been that they can, at the very least, beat lesser teams — even if they have so far struggled with picking on someone their own size. But the Titans? They should have been another opportunity for Miami to put a tally in the win column.

The Dolphins defense flopped in the final minutes, allowing two fast and easy touchdown drives for Titans quarterback Will Levis and coach Mike Vrabel. But the offense could have put the game even further out of reach — far enough so that Tua Tagovailoa never put his defense into a pressure situation. Instead, the defense had to set up the offense with perfect field position for Tagovailoa to score.

The Dolphins generated zero red-zone points until the fourth quarter, when their special teams and defense got them the ball within the 15-yard line twice. Finally, they scored their first offensive touchdowns of the game, with a drive that started on the 12-yard line and another that started on the 7-yard line. Their defense scored a touchdown for them (with defensive tackle Zach Sieler logging a pick-six).

It was an out-of-sorts week. And while good teams figure out how to win ugly, the Dolphins didn't do it. They haven't really done it at all this year.

Most troubling, however, was how the Dolphins offense looked when Tyreek Hill was not in the game.

He suffered an ankle injury in the first quarter and stood on the sideline until the third quarter when he returned to the game. (He played 47% of snaps, his second-lowest percentage of the season.)

"I came in at halftime, I texted my wife. I was like, ‘This s--- hurt.' I need an ankle massage tonight, and she's like, ‘You'd better get your ass back in that game, dawg,'" Hill told reporters after the game. "I was like, ‘All right.' So I just made up my mind that it's going to hurt. It's going to suck. Tonight and tomorrow morning.

"I just went back in the game on my own, without anybody saying, ‘Reek, go.' It was like, 'No, f--- this, I've got to get out there and bring some energy and be that spark.'"

They desperately needed that spark.

How embarrassing was Dolphins' loss to Tennessee?

This season, Tagovailoa has the fastest time to throw (2.35 seconds) in the NFL, per Pro Football Focus. But with Hill reduced both in snap count and effectiveness, the quarterback was unable to sling the ball at the same clip. Against the Titans, he was throwing at 2.74 seconds. That difference might seem minuscule, but it's proof that Hill's absence changed the offense. Tagovailoa operates Mike McDaniel's offense with precise timing. And we've seen both this year and last year what happens to that offense when teams disrupt the timing. (Bad things for Miami.)

Miami's offense averages 14.7 points per half, but managed zero points in the opening half against the Titans. In that sense, Hill's absence appeared on the scoreboard. The Titans smelled blood, too. They pressured Tagovailoa on 37.5% of his dropbacks, the highest of any half this season, in part because of Hill but also due to center Connor Williams leaving the game with an ACL tear. Miami's 74 passing yards were its fewest in any first half this season.

So, yeah, those fractions of a second matter. And they speak to a bigger issue.

When Hill isn't in the game, the team cannot operate with the same level of efficiency.

That doesn't mean McDaniel will admit it. He was asked how he balances Tyreek's importance to the offense with spreading the ball to other pass-catchers.

"I think that is kind of inherent, at least for me as a playcaller, is you're trying to distribute the ball," McDaniel said Tuesday. "There are times where there's a glutton of opportunities that go Tyreek's way. Generally, that's momentum-based, but collectively we're our strongest when you have to worry about everyone."

Momentum?

You mean the momentum Hill creates with his legs while running faster than anyone else in the NFL? McDaniel can't admit what's really happening because it would be a statement that would show panic. The offense — the entire team — is built around two players: Tua and Tyreek.

McDaniel also referenced games when receiver Jaylen Waddle has been highly targeted. But there have actually been fewer of those in 2023 than in 2022. He is projected to finish with 89 catches, 1,164 yards and 4.25 touchdowns. It's the happy (unhappy?) medium between his rookie season in 2021 and his career-high stats in 2022.

That's because the Dolphins have turned to their rushing attack as their second option — rather than almost exclusively using their passing attack to generate yards. And that has served the Dolphins well. Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane have been electric, leading Miami to an NFL-best 5.3 yards per carry. Though the Dolphins are 13th in attempts — an increase in their usage of the run game might help generate wins against a team like Tennessee.

They might not have balance in the passing game. It's basically all Tyreek. But they do have balance on offense.

Now, I want to make one thing clear. There is no Tyreek without Tua. And there's no Tua without Tyreek. They are both MVP candidates in their own right. But because they're so dependent upon each other, they're both also unlikely to win MVP.

Why Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins are not trustworthy moving forward

For those who think the offense is all about Tyreek, let's run back to 2022 when the team was without Tua. He missed four games due to concussions. During that span, the team went from averaging 25.5 points per game to 16.3. The yardage per game fell from 369.9 to 347. The third-down conversion rate fell from 38.2% to 30.8%.

Translation: It's not all about Tyreek. He can't buoy just any QB to success in this system.

As has been said many times, Tua may be a game manager, but he is absolutely perfect for McDaniel's system. The entire operation falls apart when either player falls out of the mix.

McDaniel called the game a "team loss" during a press conference on Tuesday. But really, it's on Tua and Tyreek. They are the team.

So the question remains whether the Dolphins, with a potentially limited Tyreek, can make a deep playoff run. Or, in theory, if they can even get to the playoffs. (Right now, they project to have a 97% chance of making the postseason.) But they finish the season with an intimidating schedule, particularly for a team that failed to take care of the mediocre Titans. Miami finishes the season vs. Jets, vs. Cowboys, at Ravens and vs. Bills.

That would be difficult for any team. But historically, Miami has a hard time finishing down the stretch. Just look at last year, when the Dolphins lost six of their last seven, including a postseason loss to Buffalo.

"I think that it's as clear as day to me on what needs to be done with regard to handling a disappointment like that," McDaniel said.

What, exactly? He did not say.

"I don't think this is the same Dolphins team that everyone thinks about," Tagovailoa said postgame. "We've got a lot of really good players. We've got really good coaches. It's one loss at home this year. It's not like the world ends because we lost this game. We're human. We'll continue to get better from this. This is the NFL; no one is perfect. That's that."

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While the Dolphins were once the NFL's biggest crush — with a record-setting, high-powered offense — they have come down to earth. And it might get worse if the team cannot figure out how to evolve without its central force. They are likely to make the playoffs, yes. But they lack the teeth of a team like the Bills, whose record is worse but on-field product suddenly looks better.

It's a scary moment for the Dolphins. Their star receiver is injured, and — just like last year when they lost their QB — their offensive identity is in trouble. And for a team whose identity is its offense, that's a massive problem. Hill needs to get healthy fast. And even then, the Dolphins have to keep tinkering to get past the mental hurdle against legitimate Super Bowl contenders.

Prior to joining FOX Sports as the AFC East reporter, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.