National Football League

Why is Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence regressing in Year 4?

Published Oct. 3, 2024 1:58 p.m. ET

Trevor Lawrence has never lived up to the hype of being the generational talent he was dubbed to be coming out of Clemson in 2021. But the flashes of greatness he has shown in his NFL career — the second half of the 2022 season, Jacksonville's 8-3 start to 2023 — couldn't be further from his present reality.

Four games into 2024, a healthy Lawrence — months after signing his mammoth five-year, $275 million contract — is struggling as much as he ever has in his NFL career, despite the fact that he's in his third year in Doug Pederson's system. It's a major issue amid a disastrous 0-4 start for the win-now Jaguars, the NFL's only winless team.

This is a team that owner Shad Khan said ahead of training camp was the best the franchise has ever assembled.

"We just have to stay together. It's going to teach us something," Lawrence said Sunday. "I don't think we need to blow everything up and start over."

Lawrence has completed just 53.3% of his passes for 729 yards and four touchdowns against one interception with a 78.9 passer rating, which is tied for 25th among 34 qualified quarterbacks, according to Pro Football Reference. He's currently pacing for career worsts in completion rate, first downs passing, passing success rate, bad-throw rate and on-target throw rate. That's despite the Jaguars' pressure rate allowed being around the league average at 20.9% (15th), per Pro Football Reference.

Two overthrows in Sunday's loss to the Houston Texans epitomize Lawrence's struggles. One was to first-round rookie Brian Thomas Jr. late in the first quarter. The other was to veteran Christian Kirk early in the third period. Both would've been touchdowns.

The protection was perfect on both plays.

Lawrence just missed.

"I don't think I'm speaking out of turn when I say that he knows he's got to make those throws," Pederson said Monday. "Those are NFL, big-time throws."

Lawrence needs to play better, but Jacksonville's playcalling could also be contributing to his regression. That points the finger at offensive coordinator Press Taylor, who has been the full-time playcaller since the start of last season.

Lawrence has been at his best in his Jaguars career when Pederson simplified the game for him. He's had plenty of success with RPOs, shallow crosses, mesh concepts, screens and a quick-game approach, which can build a quarterback's rhythm and confidence. But Jacksonville isn't leaning as heavily on the short and intermediate passing game as much as in years past.

Lawrence's average time to throw has slowed to 2.79 seconds this year, up from 2.51 seconds in 2023 and 2.59 seconds in 2022, according to Next Gen Stats.

This season, 50% of Lawrence's passes have been within nine yards of the line of scrimmage (including throws behind the LOS), down from 58.9% last season and 60.9% in 2022, according to Pro Football Focus.

The Jaguars have also cut their rate of screen passes significantly this season. They have represented just 7.1% of his dropbacks this season, down from 13.6% in 2023 and 14.6% in 2022, per PFF.

Last season, his 92.0 passer rating on screen passes ranked 20th of 45 qualified passers. He had a 91.3 rating on screens in 2022, 22nd of 41 quarterbacks that year. So he has traditionally hovered at average efficiency on the play under Pederson — not great, but it could make a difference in his below-average production to start the season.

More in-breaking routes from receivers may also help Lawrence build his confidence. He has a 64.3% completion rate and 99.6 passer rating on in-breaking routes this season, compared to a 52.4% completion rate and 79.6 rating on out-breakers, according to Next Gen Stats. But his attempt rate on out-breaking routes in 2024 has been 34.4%, the highest of his career. The presence of tight end Evan Engram, who returned to practice Wednesday after missing the past three games due to a hamstring injury, could help in that regard. He's been a security blanket for Lawrence over the middle of the field since arriving in Jacksonville in 2022.

Is Trevor Lawrence heading toward the bust label?

What has worked for Lawrence? Deep throws (20-plus air yards), where he has completed nine of 20 passes for 268 yards and a touchdown with no interceptions despite the missed opportunities last week. The former No. 1 overall pick is third in passing yards, sixth in passer rating and tied for 11th in completion rate on deep shots among 34 qualified passers, according to PFF.

Pederson has maintained confidence in Lawrence publicly, as he should.

With a $275 million commitment less than four months ago, the Jaguars are attached to the quarterback for the long term, for better or for worse. It's Pederson's job to bring the best out of him.

"You've got to put the ball in his hands, right?" Pederson said. "He's our guy and you've got to put the ball in his hands, and we're going to continue to trust him. I'm going to continue to do that."

Lawrence is looking forward, too.

"The start of the season was what it was," he said Wednesday. "We can't go back now, and we just have to take it one game at a time and get this thing going on the right track."

Lawrence is the biggest factor in making that happen.

Ben Arthur is an NFL reporter for FOX Sports. He previously worked for The Tennessean/USA TODAY Network, where he was the Titans beat writer for a year and a half. He covered the Seattle Seahawks for SeattlePI.com for three seasons (2018-20) prior to moving to Tennessee. You can follow Ben on Twitter at @benyarthur.

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