Carolina Panthers

Why Josh Norman isn't the home-run free agent you think

Published Apr. 20, 2016 6:23 p.m. ET

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For 31 NFL teams, it seems like Christmas morning on a Wednesday afternoon. Josh Norman, one of the top cornerbacks in football, if not the best, has all of a sudden become a free agent, a baffling, unbelievable development that shakes up NFL free agency long after most of the pieces had already settled into place. Norman's availability will be a thrill to teams that have the money and motive to sign him, teams that no longer have to play him in that stout Panthers defense and teams looking for a crack in what had looked like very solid Carolina armor for the next two or three years.

Can you blame them? It's awfully enticing, isn't it? Josh Norman was a defensive star for a team that went 15-1 and made it all the way to the Super Bowl. He's a gamechanger. He's awesome and should theoretically have a long, productive career ahead of him. But if I were running an NFL team, I wouldn't touch him with a 10-foot pole. Here's why:

(Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)

1) There's no use speculating about what caused the Carolina Panthers to rescind Norman's franchise tag, thus allowing him to become a free agent. Until we get a story, the quick summary is that, at this moment, it seems like an insane personnel decision, like if the Eagles front office had all of a sudden gotten the keys to Carolina headquarters. Teams just don't get rid of your best defensive player for nothing, especially with a trade-heavy draft coming up that could have led to some nibbles from other teams.

The statement from Panthers GM Dave Gettleman was light on information, saying only, "After a number of conversations with Josh’s agent we realized that a long-term deal was not attainable." That's nice foresight but, unless Norman indicated he'd hold out (and even then, so what - that's a game of chicken NFL teams win every time) it's not exactly a reason to cut ties. Expect more information in the coming days about this. You can make your own guesses about whether said news will make Norman more or less attractive to other teams.

(Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)

2) Cornerbacks, possibly more than any other position, thrive in their specific systems. Even if you have All-Pro talent, like Norman, playing on the same unit as Charles Johnson, Star Lotulelei, Luke Kuechly, Charles Johnson and Kurt Coleman, that talent is undoubtedly helped by his teammates and the coaching. Norman almost had to be challenged last year because there were no gaps on the field when the Panthers defensive 11 was playing. (It's like how you don't have to throw a pitch to Bryce Harper if there's nobody on base, but when there's two men on, you've got to try and get the ball past him.) If he goes somewhere else without that talent, will he still be as effective? Nnamdi Asomugha is the poster child for this theory.

3) How much will it take to get Norman? Darrelle Revis went for $70 million, Patrick Peterson got the same. Richard Sherman is on a $56 million deal. Norman had been due to get about $14 million with his one-year franchise tag. Even though Norman is older than you might think (he'll turn 29 this season), expect him to be closer to Revis and Peterson, if not higher. That's not exactly a roulette-like gamble but it's a lot of money for someone bringing all those question marks above.

(Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)

Okay, all that being said, NFL general managers don't care. And maybe they shouldn't. They're going to be chomping at the bit now that a football Rembrandt has hit the market unexpectedly. There's very little that could come out of Carolina that would make completely Norman unattractive to NFL teams (who can always squint hard enough to see the best-case scenario instead of the worst). That being the deal, where might he end up? (In no particular order...)

1) Miami Dolphins - The team has about $20 million in cap space and needs a cornerback like the Browns need a quarterback.

3) San Francisco 49ers - San Francisco has more cap room than any other NFL teams ($52 million) and basically has needs at every position. For Norman, money is money and you go get yours when you can, but if he's to assume there's another contract in his future after this one, going to a team on the downswing that finished 29th defensively in 2015 might not be the best business decision.

(David T. Foster III/Charlotte Observer/TNS via Getty Images)

5) Chicago Bears - Remember when the Bears were like Cornerback U, only for professionals? Those days are gone. Adding Norman might be a way to get back in that saddle, which will be especially beneficial in an NFC North race that looks as turbulent as ever.

6) New York Giants - Oh man, how fun would that be?