National Football League

Will Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence’s regression complicate extension talks?

Published Jan. 18, 2024 3:28 p.m. ET

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Ben Arthur

AFC South Reporter

Coming out of 2022, a record-setting extension looked inevitable for the Jaguars' Trevor Lawrence. 

He'd established himself as a franchise quarterback, guiding Jacksonville to a surprising five-game winning streak to end the regular season with an AFC South title. He won a playoff game, too. The expectation was that Lawrence's ascension would continue into 2023, with the quarterback being in his third NFL season and his second with offensive guru Doug Pederson. 

Instead, he took a step back. 

How could that complicate extension talks? 

"That's not something I'm really thinking about right now," Lawrence said last week when asked about the upcoming offseason business. 

The No. 1 overall pick in 2021, Lawrence is eligible for a second contract this spring, entering the final year of his rookie deal. 

The Jaguars have until May 2 to exercise his fifth-year option, which would keep him under contract through 2025 (according to OverTheCap.com, his fifth-year option would be $21.9 million fully guaranteed for 2025, as he met the playing time threshold through three seasons). But that could just be a placeholder for an extension. That was the case for Joe Burrow last offseason, when the Bengals picked up his option and then signed him to a record-setting extension five months later. 

Burrow is in a different tier as a quarterback, though. 

Lawrence's numbers this season took a dip in several major categories from a year ago, including in passing yards, passing touchdowns, interceptions, passer rating, completion rate, EPA per dropback and success rate per dropback. He ranked third-worst in the league with 21 giveaways (14 interceptions, seven lost fumbles). Since entering the league in 2021, he has 60 turnovers, the most in the NFL in that span. 

Pederson said at his end-of-season press conference that turnovers are the No. 1 thing that Lawrence has to work on. 

"We just can't have this amount of turnovers — how we turn the ball over, where we turn the ball over, it doesn't matter," the head coach said on Jan. 8. "We got to protect the football, that's the number one thing. … For the quarterback, the person that touches the ball every snap, we got to make sure the emphasis is taking care of the ball." 

Is the collapse of the Jags all on Trevor Lawrence?

Lawrence's struggles require context, though. 

He played through knee, ankle, shoulder and finger issues this season, limiting his practice time in the second half of the year and forcing him to miss the first game of his career. Two of his top three wide receivers, Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, missed a combined 13 games. Offensive coordinator Press Taylor was the full-time playcaller for the first time, and that came with its share of ups and downs. 

Jacksonville had offensive-line issues, too, with second-year center Luke Fortner struggling and the left side of the unit being a revolving door due to injuries. That impacted short-yardage execution and the run game. The Jaguars ranked 24th in rushing yards per game and 31st in yards per carry. Those shortcomings placed a tremendous amount of pressure on Lawrence. 

"I'm never going to point the finger," he said. "You don't point out the splinter in someone else's eye when you got one in your own.

"I think I took a lot of steps this year. People can say what they want, but I do feel like there were some areas of my game I wanted to improve in, and I think I did. Now, there's some more areas I need to get better on, and I will moving forward." 

Ultimately, the Jaguars' brass has legitimate reasons to hesitate about giving Lawrence a market-setting contract. But he's also the most talented quarterback the franchise has ever had. (The most accomplished was Mark Brunnell, a former fifth-round pick who made three Bowls and guided Jacksonville to two AFC championship games in nine seasons with the team). Lawrence has shown flashes of greatness since 2022 — even if he's nowhere near as consistent as hoped. And he has carried himself like the face of the team off the field. 

Paying Lawrence like a franchise quarterback may be as much about optics as it is about money for the Jaguars, who have a long history of quarterback purgatory. 

Lawrence hasn't been the superstar that league observers expected when he came out of Clemson. He might never be. But if he can cut down on his turnovers and the team continues to invest in the personnel around him, Jacksonville is still poised to be a perennial contender. 

While resetting the quarterback market with a $60 million-per-year deal seems unlikely, hitting $50 million annually is in the realm of possibility for Lawrence. It would make him the league's fifth-highest-paid quarterback in terms of annual value, just above Russell Wilson ($48.5 million). 

"I'm sure those things will come up as the offseason goes," Lawrence said, "but that's all I really have to say about it. I don't know how that's going to go, and it's not really my priority right now. That'll take care of itself."

Ben Arthur is the AFC South reporter for FOX Sports. He previously worked for The Tennessean/USA TODAY Network, where he was the Titans beat writer for a year and a half. He covered the Seattle Seahawks for SeattlePI.com for three seasons (2018-20) prior to moving to Tennessee. You can follow Ben on Twitter at @benyarthur.

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Ben Arthur