National Football League

Will Lovie Smith be the Houston Texans head coach in 2023?

Updated Dec. 1, 2022 7:32 p.m. ET

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Ben Arthur

AFC South Reporter

Let's be crystal clear: No one expected the Houston Texans to be competitive this season. 

They came into 2022 with a rebuilding roster, one lacking in premier talent. There was uncertainty whether Davis Mills could be a long-term starting quarterback, and Houston willingly went forward with that limbo. But under Lovie Smith, the Texans — at 1-9-1 entering Sunday's game against their former franchise quarterback, Deshaun Watson, and the Browns — in many ways have been even worse than what was expected. 

It could make firing Smith after one season at least a thought. 

The offense has taken a step back. Of course, Smith is not the playcaller of the unit. But his offensive coordinator, Pep Hamilton, is leading an offense that ranks 31st in scoring (15.8 PPG), worse than last year (30th). Mills, who flashed starting potential as a third-round rookie last year, has regressed and has been benched. His backup, Kyle Allen, didn't have any better results in his first week as starter in Sunday's 30-15 blowout loss to the Dolphins. Promising rookie running back Dameon Pierce, the engine of the offense, has 16 rushing yards combined in the past two games.

Veteran receiver Brandin Cooks told reporters after the loss to the Dolphins that the Texans offense let the game slip away "the moment we came out," an indictment of the coaching staff. 

"If a guy like Brandin is saying that, one of our leaders of our football team, we weren't [ready]," Smith said Monday. "That definitely wasn't planned. Hopefully this week we'll be better prepared, ready to play against a good Cleveland team."

The defense, the unit for which Smith still calls plays (he was the defensive coordinator last season), is teetering on being historically bad against the run. 

Yes, the defensive front showed promise against Miami — the Dolphins had just 66 rushing yards on 2.5 yards per carry, and Houston had five sacks — but to this point, we've seen zero week-to-week consistency. Houston is allowing 168.6 rushing yards on average per game, pacing to be the NFL's worst run defense in 12 years (the 2010 Bills allowed 169.6 rushing yards/game), according to Pro Football Reference.

Where the Texans have been remarkably consistent is in not finishing games. They compete, but not when it matters most. Houston is tied for 10th with 55 points scored in the third quarter this season, while ranking 30th with 46 points in the fourth quarter, according to TrueMedia.

No one starts slower than the Texans, either. Their 17 points and minus-43 point margin in the first quarter this season is worst in the NFL, per TrueMedia. Houston is second-worst in scoring and point margin in the first half overall.

Slow starts and bad finishes boil down to coaching. 

"What do we do? You just go back, you watch what happened," Smith said of the slow starts. "You just keep working on it, and you can't wait for that next game to get here."

Smith's Texans don't help themselves in the turnover battle, typically a good indicator of who wins and losses. Through 11 games, Houston is tied for 26th in takeaway/giveaway ratio (minus-4), on pace for its worst ranking since 2020 (27th). 

Smith has a couple of things working to his advantage, though. 

No. 1? The Texans knew they'd be rebuilding this year with a young roster, and they have two premium picks in the 2023 draft. 

As of now, Houston is pegged to have two top-10 selections: No. 1 overall (its original first-round pick) and No. 10 (acquired from the Browns in the Watson trade). Smith could change his fortunes, and that of the franchise, by nailing the upcoming draft. Houston could find its franchise quarterback — say, Alabama's Bryce Young or Ohio State's C.J. Stroud — and also get significant help for that player. 

The optics of the Texans firing Smith after one season would also be really bad. 

In a league that already has a dreadful track record of hiring and retaining Black coaches, Smith — if canned — would be the second straight Black coach fired by the Texans after one season with a rebuilding roster. He would join David Culley, who's firing after a 4-13 season in 2021 drew criticism. Texans general manager Nick Caserio cited "philosophical differences" in firing Culley.

Emmanuel Acho reacts to Texans firing David Culley

In January, Emmanuel Acho reacted to the news that the Texans fired head coach David Culley after one season with the team. Houston finished 4-13 without having quarterback Deshaun Watson all season.

Remember, optics have reportedly fueled Houston's coaching decisions in the recent past. The Texans reportedly wanted to hire former NFL quarterback Josh McCown as their head coach after firing Culley, only to back off because of the backlash that would come considering McCown's lack of pro and college coaching experience. A counterpoint is that the Colts' decision this season to bring in Jeff Saturday as their interim coach, despite having no previous college or pro coaching experience, could mitigate any potential hesitancy moving forward.   

But these Texans are really bad. Even in a season of low expectations — one built on the hopes of future high draft picks — one can argue that Houston has underwhelmed. 

"The same thing I'm telling the team and everybody else: the history behind, we can't go there," Smith said when asked what he'd tell fans who can't see the week-to-week rebuild process. "We understand the fans have been around a long period of time. For us, we're trying to build. It's a process that you can't skip a step, and we're not there yet. That's what we're telling them, but we're going to get there. We work extremely hard each day to try and make that happen. 

"I just don't think it does a lot of good to talk about some of the good things we're doing," Smith added. "Know what the record is. We have one win, and we need to get better in all the areas, and I'm telling the fans that's what we're trying to do."

Will Smith be given the chance to build into 2023?

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Ben Arthur is the AFC South reporter for FOX Sports. He previously worked for The Tennessean/USA TODAY Network, where he was the Titans beat writer for a year and a half. He covered the Seattle Seahawks for SeattlePI.com for three seasons (2018-20) prior to moving to Tennessee. You can follow Ben on Twitter at @benyarthur.

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Ben Arthur