National Football League

Worth betting on Jets after Robert Saleh firing? How interim coaches perform ATS

Published Oct. 14, 2024 12:57 p.m. ET

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Those who wagered on Robert Saleh to be the first coach fired cashed in last week, with the New York Jets opting to part ways with the head coach after three seasons.

The Jets' decision to move on from Saleh came after they lost to the Minnesota Vikings in Week 5, falling to 2-3 on the season. They take on the Buffalo Bills in the first game of the post-Robert Saleh era on Monday night, with defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich being named as interim head coach.

New York's decision to can Saleh didn't have a heavy impact on the line for Monday's game against Buffalo. The Bills opened up as 2.5-point favorites and now have a 1.5-point edge at DraftKings Sportsbook as of Monday afternoon.

Monday's game gives bettors another opportunity to cash in on the Jets' coaching change. 

Is the first game bump with an interim head coach real? Here's what the numbers say, with data from FOX Sports Research.

How have interim coaches performed in their first game?

Since 2010, interim coaches are 18-12 straight up, but 17-13 against the spread in their debuts.

Last season, three teams made in-season changes at head coach. Antonio Pierce was the only interim coach to lead his team to a victory in his first game, helping the Las Vegas Raiders defeat the New York Giants 30-6.

However, all three interim coaches covered the spread in their first game as head coach. 

Giff Smith helped the Los Angeles Chargers cover a 12.5-point spread against the Bills, while Chris Tabor covered a 3.5-point spread against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in his first game as the Carolina Panthers' interim coach.

John Murray of the Vegas SuperBook said on a recent episode of "Bear Bets" that the book has had some sharp money come in on the Jets since Saleh's firing. 

On that same episode, FOX Sports betting analyst Will Hill said he might lean toward the Jets for Monday's game, but doesn't have a strong feeling toward wagering New York.

"There's not a lot to like about this Jets team," Hill said. "If you're betting the Jets here, you're just saying, ‘The new coach is going to give them a bump and this team's going to look different on Monday night.'"

Interim coaches haven't had as much success beyond their opening game, though. 

They've gone 41-70 straight up in the last six seasons. They have done well against the spread, going 58-52-1 in that same stretch. Pierce bolstered that number in a big way last season, going 8-1 against the spread after becoming the Raiders' interim coach.

Teams that fire their head coach midseason generally don't make the postseason. 

Rich Bisaccia is the only interim head coach to lead a team to the postseason in the Super Bowl era, helping the Raiders get there in 2021 after Jon Gruden was fired due to an email scandal.

FOX Sports betting analyst Geoff Schwartz doesn't see the Jets in the postseason.

"I don't see much changing for the season right now," Schwartz said on the latest episode of "Bear Bets." "Maybe they go beat a Buffalo team on Monday night that's a little beat up right now and the Jets have better players than the Bills right now because of some of their injuries. But the Jets, right now, are an outside look for the postseason. 

"It's going to end terribly. As long as Nate Hackett is there, they're not going to win a lot of football games."

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