Colorado Avalanche GM Joe Sakic Putting Faith in Team Core
Colorado Avalanche GM Joe Sakic waves to the crowd before the game against the Minnesota Wild at Pepsi Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
Colorado Avalanche GM Joe Sakic Gave His Team Core a Vote of Confidence, Plans to Stay the Course. But Is It the Right Move? Will His Decision to Do Nothing Ultimately Cost Him His Job in the End?
Back on Thursday, Colorado Avalanche GM Joe Sakic told Terry Frei of the Denver Post that he has faith in his core players to get the job done. There’s only one problem; this core hasn’t delivered for a very long time now.
Since joining the Avs organization as senior advisor back in 2011-12 (and eventually promoted to various positions leading to his current role of GM/Ex.VP of hockey operations), Colorado has only made a single playoff appearance over the five-year span. They’ve accumulated a record of 196-164-38, which doesn’t look too bad until you subtract their 52-22-8 (112 points) record from back in 2013-14. At that point, we’re talking about a losing record of 144-142-30.
Now, some of those core pieces obviously came later. For example, MacKinnon first appeared back in 2013-14, Carl Soderberg came over a year ago, and Tyson Barrie only played 10 games back in 2011-12. That being said, Colorado Avalanche GM Joe Sakic has had more than enough time to evaluate the situation and find a solution that helps get this franchise back in Stanley Cup contention.
First-Time GM Mistakes
Ryan O’Reilly
There’s a laundry list of errors made by the first-time NHL General Manager over his short tenure.
The first one was created by his predecessors with their poor handling of Ryan O’Reilly. It made contract negotiations a bit sticky and ultimately wound up triggering his eventual trade to Buffalo. Colorado Avalanche GM Joe Sakic doesn’t get a pass on the O’Reilly situation, though. We’ve seen ugly relationships be quickly mended (i.e. Jonathan Drouin in 2015-16). Instead of attempting to fix things, Sakic decided he had enough depth at center to make the deal.
Worst of all, the Avs wound up getting fleeced (to no one’s surprise). Sure, both Mikhail Grigorenko and Nikita Zadorov have had their moments. But when you compare it to the elite playmaker that went the other direction, this one stings pretty bad. The only potential saving grace is prospect J.T. Compher, who could wind up being a quality 2nd/3rd liner.
Free Agency Fixes
It was particularly painful watching Joe Sakic attempt to fix his issues through free agency this past summer. What hurt even more, was seeing fans believe that unwanted players like Fedor Tyutin, Patrick Wiercioch, and Joe Colborne might actually help turn things around. It’s not a knock on the players themselves, but if there’s one thing history has taught us, you can’t fix your problems on July 1st.
Nov 23, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; Colorado Avalanche right wing Mikko Rantanen (96) warms up before the game against the Edmonton Oilers at the Pepsi Center. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
Minor League Development Issue?
This is an organizational problem, but worth noting nonetheless. If you look at the draft boards over the years, the Avs scouting department has done a decent job filling the prospect cupboard. At the same time, they’ve swung and missed with a few valuable picks (names such as Joey Hishon and Duncan Siemens come to mind just to name a pair).
But I wonder if those can be chalked up to a simple draft bust, or whether there’s a deeper issue at play. After all, the Avs only have nine players originally selected by the team on their 23-man roster and four of those guys made the immediate jump to the NHL.
The fact is, the Avs don’t develop many quality players through the system. Compare this to someone like Detroit, Chicago, Tampa Bay, or Toronto, you’d be astounded how many individuals paid their dues at the AHL level.
It might be time for Colorado to re-evaluate their entire player development system.
Time for a Change/Trade Bait
Crowded up the Middle
While two number one centers works fine for the Pittsburgh Penguins, we’re also talking about two legitimate superstars in Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. No offence to Nathan MacKinnon and Matt Duchene, but these duos aren’t comparable.
Sure, you can ask one to play the right wing or as they’ve recently done, split them on the 1st/2nd line, sliding Carl Soderberg down to the 3rd. But no matter what tweaks and changes Jared Bednar attempts to make, it’ll be to no avail.
This dynamic simply doesn’t work. To get the absolute most out of either one of these guys, they need to be in that 1st line center slot. That might explain why only one of them tends to get hot at a time. It was Duchene early on seeing a little extra time at center and 1st line RW, then it was MacKinnon who caught fire once he seemingly locked down the top spot.
The solution here is simple: trade Matt Duchene. Fans don’t want to hear it, and why would they? He’s been an absolute beast for this franchise coming off an impressive 30-goal, 59-point season in 2015-16. At a time when goal scoring is at a premium in the NHL, there may be no better time to deal the 25-year-old while his trade value is still peaking.
Even if it means taking a step back in 2016-17 in order to take a leap forwards next year, so be it. Fans would rather have a consistent winner opposed to a bubble team.
Nov 21, 2016; Columbus, OH, USA; Colorado Avalanche goalie Calvin Pickard (31) against the Columbus Blue Jackets at Nationwide Arena. The Avalanche won 3-2. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports
Goaltending Conundrum
I’ve long been a big fan of Calvin Pickard. I even went as far as proclaiming him NHL ready prior to landing on the scene in 2015-16. So, for me, this has long been brewing in the background.
Things were particularly confusing heading into 2016-17 with impending expansion on the horizon in June 2017. Colorado Avalanche GM Joe Sakic and company have a few difficult decisions to make regarding their protection list; the biggest of all being which netminder to save.
Logic had always dictated that the younger, cheaper Calvin Pickard was the best choice. All he needed to do was step up and prove that he had the potential to be a bona fide NHL starter. A quarter way through the new season and he’s done just that. Although Varlamov’s horrific play might be the biggest driving force in the decision to leave the Russian netminder exposed to Las Vegas.
If left unprotected, Semyon Varlamov could be considered a top option between the pipes for the Vegas Golden Knights. He has a lucrative contract at $5.9 million dollars/year that expires following the 2018-19 season, so it could be the perfect fit for a team that needs to spend some money to reach the cap floor.
While we can’t rule of the possibility of a trade, it’s highly unlikely that anyone is lining up for Varlamov’s services, especially given his recent play. The only possible way he could be dealt is towards the trade deadline when teams might only have to pay a fraction of his salary in 2016-17. But they’re still on the hook for another two years, so the only teams that might be interested are those without a starter or a significant injury (in which case Varlamov would probably still be exposed in June).
Nov 26, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; Colorado Avalanche center Matt Duchene (9) before the game against the Vancouver Canucks at the Pepsi Center. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
Potential Targets to Consider
Colorado needs to fill two major holes. They need another top-six left winger and top-four left-handed defenseman. If a return package doesn’t include one of the following (or both), it defeats the purpose of making a deal in the first place.
There’s no guarantee that other General Managers would be willing to part with these players, but if I’m Colorado Avalanche GM Joe Sakic, my list of potential targets would include the following names:
*NOTE: These are NOT straight up trade proposals, but merely the building blocks of a much larger package deal. In most cases, other teams would need to add a sweetener or two to the deal for a star such as Duchene.
LW Jeff Skinner, Carolina Hurricanes
There’s nothing to suggest that Skinner is available, but then again, GMs will listen. Plus, Ron Francis might be extra attentive if discussions include a potential number one center in Matt Duchene. Let’s not forget that Carolina has one of the deepest defensive groups in the entire league. These two clubs could definitely help one another.
C/LW Boone Jenner, Columbus Blue Jackets
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Although a natural center, Jenner might be best suited on the wing. A little less responsibility allows him to have a little more offensive creativity. He’s fallen out of favor in Columbus after a slow start and could be one of those guys that is tough to protect in expansion given the current situation.
LW Tomas Tatar, Detroit Red Wings
Detroit has a number of quality LWers on their roster. It has essentially forced them to often play guys on their off-wing. Given the immense depth of the Red Wings prospect pool, a deal could be had. A trade could make sense given the fact that GM Ken Holland is currently looking to choose between Anthony Mantha and Andreas Anthanasiou for that final protection spot up front. Shedding a few contracts might allow him to protect both.
D Jonas Brodin/or Marco Scandella, Minnesota Wild
Before we lose our minds, yes we’re talking about two close bitter rivals. No, it’s not a common occurrence for these trades to happen, but they do occur. Don’t think its possible? The Maple Leafs defied the odds just a year ago when they shipped their captain to Ottawa. Fact is, the Wild can’t protect their plethora of blueliners. And it just so happens they have an extra LH defender. Coincidentally, Colorado has something Minnesota needs in a top-six center. Sure, Eric Staal is doing a bang up job early on, but it was only ever meant to be a stop-gap option.
D Mattias Ekholm, Nashville Predators
Another division rival, this one is a little more complicated. As it stands right now, GM David Poile would have zero interest in moving Ekholm. That could however change if the Preds hit another rough stretch. Nashville will need to protect four defensemen in expansion, leaving a number of quality forwards available. But if the experiment on the back end isn’t working, it might not hurt to sacrifice a d-man like Ekholm to allow for a 7-3-1 protection scheme.
C/LW Anders Lee/LW Josh Bailey/D Thomas Hickey, New York Islanders
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The Isles are in shambles right now despite their recent surge. Things only seem to get worse next June with a number of quality players poised to be left exposed for Las Vegas. A couple of the bigger names are defensemen Thomas Hickey and Calvin de Haan.
Hickey could be a solid fit in the Avs lineup. Colorado could potentially have their pick of a number of forwards depending what the Islanders would be willing to sacrifice.
Targets might include Anders Lee, Josh Bailey, Ryan Strome, Brock Nelson from the active roster. Then it might also include a prospect such as Michael Dal Colle, Josh Ho-Sang, or Mathew Barzal. The toughest part of this deal is convincing Garth Snow to bring in another number one center when the biggest need is a legitimate 1st line winger.
D Alex Edler, Vancouver Canucks
Given the emergence of Troy Stecher and other bodies such as Erik Gudbranson, Ben Hutton, Chris Tanev, Luca Sbisa, Nikita Tryamkin, and Philip Larsen in the mix, the 30-year-old Edler is slowly being pushed out. By the time he returns in early January from a finger injury, there might not be a whole lot of room on the Canucks blue line. His play has fallen off in recent years, but perhaps a change of scenery is exactly what the veteran needs to re-ignite his game. The Canucks would obviously need to add some quality sweeteners in this one for an aging blueliner.
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