Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
While the 2016-17 season seems grim for the Colorado Avalanche, there can be some hope for the team.
For Colorado Avalanche fans, the Season of Light certainly isn’t one of hope right now. The team has a 11-16-1 record that’s “good” for dead last in the NHL.
You know the drill — 28 games in, there’s still “plenty of hockey” left to play. For Avs fans, that’s not really cause for rejoicing. The Avalanche haven’t exactly been putting an enjoyable product on the ice, especially at home.
That’s been a big problem for Colorado — home ice is more of a disadvantage than an advantage. It was that way last season, too. Players have said they’re so worried about putting a good show on for their fans that they actually end up doing the opposite.
While it’s true that after 28 games the Colorado Avalanche are unlikely to make enough of a run to actually make the playoffs, it’s not over yet. Colorado can climb out of the basement the team is currently residing in.
So, let’s take a look at what we Avs fans can actually hope for at this point in the season.
Oct 5, 2016; Dallas, TX, USA; Colorado Avalanche goalie Calvin Pickard (31) faces the Dallas Stars attack during the second period at the American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Goal Tending Becomes Consistent
I think Colorado Avalanche fans are going to have to acknowledge something they don’t want to — the team is never going to get consistent goal tending from Semyon Varlamov. Varlamov is a talented goalie with incredible reflexes, but he relies on that too much.
So, what the Avalanche are going to get from Varly are incredible 52-save games followed by a .823 save percentage performance. And then his groin will give way.
Colorado’s best hope for consistent goal tending lies in Calvin Pickard’s young hands. He’s not as spectacular as Varly, but he’s not as spectacularly bad either. He’s a solid, workhorse goalie.
Pickard is really just in his first full season in the NHL, having been part-time backup the last couple of years. So we don’t know what he can really do yet. However, it’s time to rely on Picks a little more than Varly.
It’s not like we really have a choice right now — Varlamov’s groin is acting up again.
A Defenseman Gets Hot
You don’t usually hear about defensemen “getting hot” — that phrase is typically reserved for goalies or forwards. However, in today’s NHL, all skaters are expected to contribute everything. That means a defenseman could get hot.
For the Colorado Avalanche, the most likely candidate is Tyson Barrie, especially with Erik Johnson out with a broken fibula.
Barrie got a cherry contract this off-season, and that’s because of his offensive capabilities. He’s been billed as a true offensive defenseman — so much so that I like to call him a rover. Yet he only has 13 points (2 goals, 11 assists) in 28 games. He’s fourth on the team for scoring. He’s going to have to get hotter than that to give the Avs hope.
Colorado has a couple more young, exciting defensemen who should be able to pot a few in — if they can just get their discipline under control. I’m looking at you, Nikita Zadorov, and you, Eric Gelinas. If both of them got hot — or at least tightened up — the Colorado blueline would be in better shape.
Make a Blockbuster Trade
More from Mile High Sticking
You’ve heard the old cliche — the definition of insanity is to keep doing the same thing but expect a different result. For the Colorado Avalanche, that may mean still trusting this core to make the team relevant, much less a contender.
I agree that this core looks so enticing. Players like Matt Duchene, Nathan MacKinnon and Tyson Barrie can be so exciting to watch. (As I like to say, there’s nothing prettier in hockey than a Matt Duchene breakaway.)
However, it’s just not working. I don’t know why. Joe Sakic doesn’t know why. I daresay Jared Bednar doesn’t know why. I’m not sure that Patrick Roy knew why, but he was willing to make a change.
Matt Duchene and Tyson Barrie are the most common names bandied about for a trade, with Semyon Varlamov and Garbriel Landeskog joining the mix. However, it seems Nathan MacKinnon is the only untouchable — and I wouldn’t completely rule him out if the right deal came up. I’d say Erik Johnson is the only untouchable right now, but that’s because of his injury status.
I really wanted this core to succeed. I’ve fantasized about watching Landy hand the Stanley Cup to Dutchy. However, I think we have to acknowledge that building the team around those young guys hasn’t worked up until now, and it’s probably not going to start working.
Sakic is going to have to follow in the Architect’s footsteps. Nobody pulled the trigger on blockbuster trades better Pierre Lacroix.
Aim for the Draft
I hate the idea of bombing for better draft positioning. I think it leads to lazy mistakes that hurt the existing players in the long run. I believe it’s part of the problem with some of the core players currently on the team — not that they were actively encouraged to bomb, but that it was tacitly seen as ok.
That said, another high draft pick might be the Colorado Avalanche’s best hope. That is, if they draft with vision, not for best available like the Edmonton Oilers did over and over. (See previous definition of insanity.)
What type of player the Avs need to draft depends on what their vision for the team is. As I’ve said before, I don’t quite get it. Previously Colorado was building on the model of the Anaheim Ducks — big, speedy, gritty players with a lot of talent and work ethic. As best I can figure, the current Avs model has gotten rid of grit, and some size, but haven’t replaced those features with anything. I believe a reliance on advanced stats is part of the program, but I don’t think it’s an astute usage yet.
The 2017 NHL Draft Lottery is going to be run in the same format as last year, meaning teams will draft for picks 1-3. The teams with the worst records have more of a chance for receiving one of those draft picks.
Right now the Colorado Avalanche have the worst record in the NHL. They keep trading places with the Arizona Coyotes, and it looks like the Vancouver Canucks are joining the fray. Let’s face it, with the way things are going, that’s the real race the Avs have a chance of winning.
In case you’re wondering, while it’s a little early for realistic predictions, center/right wing Nolan Patrick is seen as the top prospect, followed by center Gabriel Vilardi. According to NHL.com, other players to watch are right wing Kailer Yamamoto, right wing Owen Tippett and right wing Maxime Comtois.
Welcome to the Colorado Avalanche, Nolan or Gabriel?
