John Tavares now had 32 points in the first 41 games this season. He’s added another eleven over the last ten games. The best of Tavares has yet to come.
In the opening half of the NHL season, it seemed that something was up with John Tavares. With 32 points in his opening 41 games, Tavares was on pace for 64 points. A low we haven’t seen from Tavares since his rookie year.
I didn’t count the lockout because he was still almost a point per game player, scoring 47 in 48 games played.
But since the second half of the season, as in since game number 42, Tavares has twelve points out of eleven games played. Producing at a rate of 1.09 points per game.
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To put that in perspective, Tavares was producing at a rate 0.78 points per game in the first half of the season. That’s a 31.9% jump in production. Looking at his career stats, this isn’t uncommon. Tavares gets better in the second half of the year.
Second Half Story
In his last two seasons, Tavares has increased his second half production by an incredible 21.5% and 25.8% respectively.
Currently, Tavares is on pace for 69 points assuming he continues his 2016-17 regular season average of 0.84. But knowing what we know with Tavares, his production goes up in the second half.
| Year | Half | Points | Difference |
| 09-10 | 1 | 28 | |
| Rookie | 2 | 26 | -0.07 |
| 10-11 | 1 | 33 | |
| 2 | 34 | 0.03 | |
| 11-12 | 1 | 40 | |
| 2 | 41 | 0.025 | |
| 12-13 | 1 | 27 | |
| Lockout | 2 | 20 | -0.35 |
| 13-14 | 1 | 45 | |
| Sochi Injury | 2 | 22 | -0.48 |
| 14-15 | 1 | 39 | |
| 2 | 47 | 0.205 | |
| 15-16 | 1 | 31 | |
| 2 | 39 | 0.258 |
So, rather than assuming he continues his current trajectory, let’s assume Tavares keeps pace with his current second half production. Let’s assume he increase production between the first and second half by a measure of 31%.
With 32 points in his opening 41 games, a 31% increase means that Tavares is looking at ending the year with 74 points. Bettering his pace stats by a full five points.
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It’s not outrageous to think. That put’s him at ten percentage points under a point-per-game pace, and nine percentage points below his career average. But it also puts him well above his current pace stats. And probably above where some thought he’d be after the terrible start the Islanders had.
Thanks to Tavares’ production bump, the Islanders have gone 8-1-2 in their last eleven to start the second half of the season. And, more importantly, the Islanders sit just two points out of a playoff spot with four games in hand on the Boston Bruins.
Tavares’ career stats show that he generally produces a bump in his production during the second half of the season. We’ve seen this bump manifest itself on the ice. The production bump is real, and God it feels great as a fan.
