Los Angeles Kings: Tyler Toffoli is the real deal
Los Angeles Kings’ forward Tyler Toffoli has quietly become one of the NHL’s most underrated two-way players. He’s begun to stand out from his peers and 2016-17 could be his breakout season.
The Kings have built a mini-dynasty on the idea of puck possession and safe play at both ends of the ice. Captain Anze Kopitar brought the team two Stanley Cups with that philosophy but the young player who embodies it the most may be his teammate, Tyler Toffoli.
Toffoli will be heading into his fifth official NHL season but with just 230 games played, 2016-17 will essentially be his third full season. Last season – in which he played all 82 games for the Kings – was a major step forward for Toffoli as an offensive player.
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Toffoli had already been touted for his defensive ability, even receiving Selke votes in 2014-15 for the NHL’s best defensive forward. He actually lead the league in short-handed goals that season, proving his ability to quickly turn defense into offense.
However, in 2015-16 he became an offensive asset for the Kings, notching 31 goals, 58 points (both career highs) and an impressive 9 power play goals (tied for the team lead with Kopitar).
Now that Toffoli has established himself as a productive two-way player, I think he is ready to join that next tier of players from his draft class. He belongs in the conversation with guys like Vladimir Tarasenko, Taylor Hall and Jeff Skinner.
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To appreciate what Toffoli does for the Kings, you have to let the numbers tell the story.
Of the 210 picks in the 2010 draft, Toffoli leads all of them in plus/minus (the next closest is 14 behind him) and lead the NHL in plus/minus last season. His runner-up was Anze Kopitar, the league’s Selke winner last year and not one of Toffoli’s frequent linemates.
So yes, Toffoli beat out the best defensive forward in the game without the benefit of playing alongside him.
That’s because when he’s on the ice, the puck seems to stay in the Kings’ offensive zone; it’s hard to get scored on when you’re always in control of the puck.
What do the analytics say?
Corsi is an analytical stat that summarizes how well a player creates offense by counting their blocked shots, shots that miss the net, shots that are saved and goals (known as Corsi events). Corsi is kept for and against so a Corsi percentage of 50% or higher means you’re controlling the offense.
Of all those who played at least 1000 minutes last season, nobody had a higher Corsi-for percentage (percentage of Corsi events that are for) than Toffoli’s 59.41%.
When Toffoli was on the ice last season, the Kings produced over 11 more Corsi events per 60 minutes than when he was off the ice. Only Boston’s Brad Marchand and Montreal’s Max Pacioretty – both perennial Selke candidates – had better on/off-ice splits for forwards.
It’s clear now how Toffoli was able to net 9 power-play goals. When he’s on the ice, he controls the play and creates offense for the Kings. With one less defender on the ice, those Corsi events have a better chance of going into the net.
How does he compare with his peers?
I think Toffoli’s trajectory is clear when you look at the guys he came into the league with. Tampa Bay’s Tyler Johnson and Ondrej Palat both made their debuts the same year as Toffoli and have played roughly the same number of games as he has.
Palat has received Selke votes each of the last three seasons, but according to Hockey-reference.com’s Defensive Point Shares, he’s gotten worse each of those seasons while Toffoli has noticeably improved.
Oh and remember how Toffoli had one of the biggest splits for Corsi when he was on the ice? Well the Lightning were actually better with Palat off the ice last season.
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Tyler Johnson also has gotten Selke votes the past three seasons but, after a huge ’14-15 campaign, suffered a major regression last season; according to Point Shares, Toffoli was worth literally twice (9.1 to 4.2) what Johnson was last year.
Not only did Johnson score about a half-point less per game, his defense suffered as well, causing his plus/minus to plummet from 33 to 4.
Tyler Toffoli is going to have to get used to playing without Milan Lucic, whose physical presence undoubtedly helped to control the puck in the offensive zone. But if he gets to play with Kopitar, the two of them should cause fits for opposing backcheckers.
Scrambling defenses means more Corsi events for Toffoli and I see him having a great year before reaching restricted free agency.
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