NHL Awards Watch: Top 5 Norris Trophy candidates
Who are the top five Norris Trophy candidates after the first half of the 2016-17 NHL season?
Each season, the Norris Trophy goes to the defenseman “who demonstrates throughout the season the greatest all-round ability in the position”. This often causes a bit of a debate, as the roles for certain defensemen have evolved rather quickly. Puck movers are starting to be valued more highly than more traditional shutdown defensemen.
Drew Doughty is the reigning Norris winner, but it doesn’t look like he’s going to repeat. However, he still ranks in the top five candidates. Who’s better than him? Which defenseman is the favorite to win? Unless otherwise noted, all stats are at even strength (five on five). Ryan Suter gets an honorable mention, but with Devan Dubnyk primed to win the Vezina Trophy and Bruce Boudreau as a serious Jack Adams candidate, don’t expect him to be in the top five on too many ballots.
Here are the top five candidates for the Norris Trophy, along with the best cases for them and against them.
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Victor Hedman
Defenseman, Tampa Bay Lightning
The case for Hedman: The Lightning defenseman is having a bit of a breakout season. He’s always been a bit underrated, but this season, he’s putting everything together and people are finally realizing how great he is. With 38 points through 47 games, Hedman’s on pace to shatter his previous career high of 55 points.
He’s a net gain when he’s on the ice, ranking in the top 30 in goals for percentage. Hedman also tilts shot attempts in favor of the Lightning, ranking in the top 30 in CorsiFor percentage as well. He also plays during all situations, which is a good resume booster for the Norris.
The case against Hedman: This is unfair because it has very little to do with him. But the Lightning are struggling and Norris winners traditionally have come from playoff contenders. Hedman can’t be ruled out because Tampa Bay has shown in the past they can rally towards the end of the season. Whether it’s fair or not, his Norris chances hinge on the Lightning getting healthy and playing better. Also working against him is voters haven’t voted for him much in the past. The highest Hedman has ever finished is ninth.
Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
Drew Doughty
Defenseman, Los Angeles Kings
The case for Doughty: If you like a traditional defenseman who can still produce at an impressive rate, Doughty’s your guy. Not only this, his Los Angeles Kings remain one of the best defensive teams in the NHL. As their top defenseman, Doughty stands out.
He remains one of the NHL’s most influential possession players, ranking 25th in relative CorsiFor percentage. Doughty also ranks seventh in goals for percentage and at 27:15 of ice time per game, only Dustin Byfuglien plays more per game than him.
His case will improve immensely if the Kings manage to make it to the playoffs despite Jonathan Quick being out for most of the season. They’ve survived with Peter Budaj in net and it’s hard not to credit Doughty for it. Before saying playoffs don’t matter, keep in mind voters didn’t vote for him in 2014-15 because his team didn’t make the postseason. Doughty lost to Erik Karlsson despite having more first-place votes.
The case against Doughty: He doesn’t produce much at even strength compared to other defensemen. Doughty ranks 70th out of 159 in points per game among defensemen with at least 500 minutes played. Sure, a job of a defenseman includes defending. But these days, it also involves producing and moving the puck. Doughty is inferior offensively to the more elite puck movers. That said, it didn’t stop him last year.
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Erik Karlsson
Defenseman, Ottawa Senators
The case for Karlsson: The Ottawa Senators captain remains one of the most productive blueliners in the NHL, ranking second only to Brent Burns in points. While his possession numbers are down, he’s still a net positive (0.7 relative CorsiFor percentage). Working in his favor is he’s making the Senators a playoff team. They rely on him quite heavily and so far, he’s been up to the task.
Karlsson’s Norris Trophy case is primarily based on his offense, though his defense isn’t lacking. Critics point to his less than stellar plus-minus rating, but there are better stats to use than that. And all of those stats suggest Karlsson is at worst a net gain when he’s on the ice.
As the league’s premier puck-mover, his zone entry numbers are outstanding. Karlsson produces highlights on a nightly basis, which can only do good things for his Norris case.
The case against Karlsson: Last year, his Norris Trophy case was based on his historic production and his outstanding possession numbers. Both of those are gone this season. There’s still time for him to improve his case. Should the Senators make the postseason, that would help his case as well. But right now, don’t expect Karlsson to get his third Norris.
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Shea Weber
Defenseman, Montreal Canadiens
The case for Weber: Shea Weber has the sympathy of a lot of voters because of his lack of Norris Trophies. It’s kind of insane he has never won one because he dominated for a five-year period. From 2010-11 to 2014-15, Weber finished (in order) second, second, eighth, third, and fourth. As fans learned last year with Doughty, narratives go a long way. Playing in arguably the NHL’s largest market should help his case as well.
Weber has helped the Montreal Canadiens go from their most embarrassing season in franchise history to first place in the Atlantic Division. Someone has to get the credit. With Carey Price struggling by his lofty standards, the rugged defenseman is an easy guy to credit for the turnaround. Weber’s +18 plus-minus rating helps his cause as well. He’s productive and he is good at preventing goals.
The case against Weber: He has never been a strong possession player, and this year is no different. Weber is by no means a liability, but his -2.2 percent relative CorsiFor percentage doesn’t look good. Also, he had a month-long rough stretch during which he only had two points. Extended lack of production is generally frowned upon. Weber’s got a decent chance, but he’ll need some help.
Mandatory Credit: John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports
Brent Burns
Defenseman, San Jose Sharks
The case for Burns: Last year, Brent Burns finished third in the Norris Trophy voting. He’s quickly rising to the Norris favorite thanks to a very strong first half. Burns leads all NHL defenseman in points and goals. He’s on pace to become the first defenseman since Mike Green to score 30 goals in a season.
A concern for Burns has always been his defense. Last year, he had a -5 plus-minus rating. This year, it has risen to +14. It’s not the best in the league, but it’s quite good. This year, Burns has been more than just productive. He makes the Sharks a much better team when he’s on the ice. Entering the All-Star break, his goals for percentage is 61.3, which is 16th among defensemen. However, his relative goals for percentage is a ridiculous 16.5, third among his peers.
The case against Burns: This isn’t so much of a case against him as it is a sign he could slump a bit in the second half. Burns has a PDO of 102.6. It’s not completely outrageous, but it shows he’s been a bit lucky so far. A bit of regression is inevitable, but he’s playing so well, it likely won’t matter. But it’s something to keep an eye on moving forward.
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