NHL Expansion Draft: Minnesota Wild Expansion Protection Strategy
Puck Prose has been focused on individual teams' Vegas strategies. Now, we take a look at how Minnesota should approach the NHL Expansion Draft. Whether it be their young offense or young defense, how does the Wild protect?
The Minnesota Wild are a capable team. Under new coach Bruce Boudreau, they made the NHL Playoffs last year. They need to protect their core group of guys from the NHL Expansion Draft so they can do it again. But who?
NHL Expansion Draft
Minnesota Wild head coach Bruce Boudreau talks to a referee (Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports)
Do the Wild focus on older core guys like Ryan Suter and Zach Parise who may fall off soon? Do they protect the youngest guys like Matt Dumba and Nino Niederreiter? What becomes the Wild strategy?
NHL Expansion Draft
Minnesota Wild forward Zach Parise (11) skates after the puck (Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports)
M is For Movement (as in Puck Movement… oh you get it)
Applicable Forwards: Zach Parise, Mikko Koivu, Jason Pominville, Eric Staal, Charlie Coyle, Jason Zucker, Chris Stewart, Tyler Graovac, Zack Mitchell, Ryan White, Patrick Cannone, Nino Niederreiter, Jordan Schroeder, Erik Haula, Mikael Granlund.
So many M's and K's in that list.
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No Movement Clause: Zach Parise, Mikko Koivu, Jason Pominville
Parise had a down season this year, playing hurt and playing only 69 games. He had just 19 goals in those games.
Parise has hit 60 points just once while in a Minnesota jersey, something he did 5 times in New Jersey.
He's definitely seen his downfall. But he'll stay with Minnesota because he's home and won't waive his NMC.
If it were me, though, I would attempt to convince Parise to waive so as to throw Vegas off from other players in the NHL Expansion Draft.
Koivu is the Wild captain. He's been around for much of the franchise's history. While he's 34 years old, he put up his most productive season since 2013 last year. Koivu was tied for third in points in the playoffs.
Koivu's also aging well, and if he remains to be this productive he should play out the remainder of his contract in a Wild uniform. It also ends just next year, so not a big deal.
He may even sign another contract for less if he has a repeat performance. So he's not in the NHL Expansion Draft.
Pominville is also 34 years old. He tallied 47 points last year, including 34 assists. He has the ability to play with young guys like Niederreiter, Haula, and Granlund, or with older guys like Parise and Koivu.
That versatility is useful for the Wild, who may need to trot out different lineups next year to find something that works. Pominville tallied just one assist in the playoffs, but Jake Allen was effective at eliminating the Wild's offensive production.
Guaranteed: Eric Staal, Mikael Granlund
Eric Staal is also an older guy on this Minnesota roster, but he becomes a free agent in two years and out-performed his contract. Making only 3.5 million, Staal stacked up 65 points, including 28 goals. That's the most on the team.
Staal was an incredibly useful player too, with the ability to play on the left or down the middle. He's staying away from the NHL Expansion Draft.
Mikael Granlund scored the most points out of any Wild player last year. Throwing up 69, Granlund did it on even less money than Staal.
While Minnesota will have to pay their restricted free agent, that's a worthy consequence of a season like Granlund's. Granlund played close to 19 minutes a night, too. Not bad for a player with just one full season previously.
Highly Likely: Charlie Coyle, Nino Niederreiter
I would be extremely surprised if these guys didn't round out the 7. Coyle posted his best season last year, putting up 56 points. It was a remarkable display, in which he was fifth on the team.
Coyle bested players like Jason Zucker, making the 25-year-old expendable. Coyle's also that young, turning 25 at the beginning of March.
Niederreiter is another restricted free agent this summer that the Wild will have to protect. He posted 57 points, fourth on the team. That includes 25 goals, which was third on the team.
Niederreiter is just 24 years old and represents another young guy on this team worth protection. His Corsi wasn't half bad either, at 55.4%. So Niederreiter can drive the puck.
NHL Expansion Draft
Minnesota Wild defenseman Jared Spurgeon (46) is probably safe from the NHL Expansion Draft (Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports)
W is for Whoa There Blue Line
Applicable Defensemen: Ryan Suter, Jared Spurgeon, Jonas Brodin, Marco Scandella, Matt Dumba, Victor Bartley, Christian Folin
wild
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No Movement Clause: Ryan Suter
Ryan Suter is the Minnesota Wild's number one defenseman, their leading scorer from the blue line, and an alternate captain.
In other words, safe safe safe.
The thought won't cross Chuck Fletcher's mind to ask Suter to waive for the NHL Expansion Draft.
That's how safe Ryan Suter is. He's earned his NMC, and he's also a hometown boy.
Guaranteed: Jared Spurgeon
Spurgeon is firmly Minnesota's second defenseman.
He also posted the second-most points of any Wild defenseman this season with 38.
That was while Spurgeon averaged 24 minutes a night of defense and was positive in terms of Corsi.
His PDO was insane too, which means Minnesota was really good in terms of save percentage and shot percentage while Spurgeon was on the ice.
He's only 27 and if he can continue putting up those numbers he would be a top 2 defenseman anywhere. But he'll stay in Minnesota.
Maybe: Jonas Brodin
This is the biggest debate in the NHL Expansion Draft we've seen so far. Does Minnesota protect Jonas Brodin or Matt Dumba? Do they even consider Marco Scandella? In my opinion, it has to be Jonas Brodin.
While Brodin is a year older (than Dumba), he's also more responsible defensively. He had 2 game-winning goals versus Dumba's one. He had 9 fewer points in 8 fewer games.
But Brodin is more likely to improve next season. Dumba's Corsi was below 50, and his Corsi Relative was in the negatives. He played more minutes than Brodin, but Brodin may have been able to do more with the minutes.
NHL Expansion Draft
Minnesota Wild goalie Devan Dubnyk (40) watches the puck (Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports)
Double D is for Done Deal
Applicable Goaltenders: Devan Dubnyk, Alex Stalock, Darcy Kuemper
Guaranteed: Devan Dubnyk
Dubnyk is 31 years old. He can't play in the playoffs. Those are both problems or soon to be problems. But he's still the best goaltender on the Minnesota Wild. He played in 65 games this season, posting a 2.25 GAA and .923 SV%.
Before he got cold after February, Dubnyk was in Vezina discussions. He still has the potential to support the Wild. He just has yet to prove himself in the playoffs.
Exempt List
Joel Eriksson Ek, Alex Tuch, Mike Reilly.
NHL Expansion Draft
Minnesota Wild defenseman Matt Dumba (24) is likely exposed in the NHL Expansion Draft (Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports)
VGK is for Verified Golden Knight
Available players: Jason Zucker, Chris Stewart, Tyler Graovac, Zack Mitchell, Ryan White, Patrick Cannone, Jordan Schroeder, Erik Haula, Marco Scandella, Matt Dumba, Victor Bartley, Christian Folin, Alex Stalock, Darcy Kuemper
So who should Vegas select? A goaltender who put up great stats in two games (Nope).
Matt Dumba, a young defenseman capable on offense but who needs to learn the defensive part more?
Or a good young forward like Erik Haula or Jason Zucker who can put up points? That's the debate.
For me, it comes down to Jason Zucker versus Matt Dumba.
Zucker is a left wing making 2 million who becomes a restricted free agent in the next offseason. He put up 47 points, including 22 goals.
That's something the Golden Knights aren't going to see a lot of. He has the potential to be a top 6 forward for the Knights for years to come.
Or a young defenseman with potential and the ability to play 20 minutes a night. One who can be paired up with likely Golden Knight Trevor Van Riemsdyk, to make a terrific pairing for the future.
That's a really hard decision to make. The Wild have too many good players, so they have to leave some open. If I'm Vegas I'm taking Dumba. I can find offense somewhere else. I can't find a good young defenseman like Dumba in many other places.
