In the NHL Expansion Draft, who do the New York Rangers protect? Which forwards and defensemen of the Rangers are worth protection? And who gets left exposed?
The NHL Expansion Draft is coming sooner than people think. It's on June 21st, which means as of the writing of this post it's 11 days away.
NHL Expansion Draft
New York Rangers defenseman Nick Holden (22) celebrates after scoring a goal against the Ottawa Senators (Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports)
The Rangers also don't have enough contracts. Somebody valuable must currently be left open. And that makes things interesting when formulating a strategy.
So do Dan Girardi and Marc Staal's no movement clauses. With one opening for a defenseman, who gets it?
Lastly, does a 35-year-old Henrik Lundqvist take precedence over a younger goaltender?
NHL Expansion Draft
New York Rangers forward Mats Zuccarello (36) takes a shot on net during the warmup before game five of the first round of the 2017 Stanley Cup Playoffs (Eric Bolte-USA TODAY Sports)
NY Is for Naive Youth
Applicable New York forwards: Rick Nash, Derek Stepan, Chris Kreider, Mats Zuccarello, J.T. Miller, Kevin Hayes, Michael Grabner, Taylor Beck, Daniel Catenacci, Marek Hrivik, Chris Brown, Matt Puempel, Oscar Lindberg, Brandon Pirri, Nicklas Jensen, Tanner Glass, Mika Zibanejad, Jesper Fast.
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NMC: Rick Nash
Rick Nash had 23 goals and 38 points in the regular season. He finished the year with 3 goals and 5 points in the playoffs.
He makes the most money of any player on the Rangers roster, but his contract is up next year.
Rick Nash is actually one of the most fascinating NMC cases before the NHL Expansion Draft.
Because he only has a year left and was not drafted by the Rangers, he owes them nothing.
So does he go to Vegas for his contract year? Attempt to prove himself again at the age of 32? Even if he does waive, is he selected?
Nash has a strong history, including three seasons of 40+ goals. His latest was just two seasons ago when he played the longest season in his Rangers career. Either way Nash goes works.
Guaranteed: Mats Zuccarello, Derek Stepan, Chris Kreider
Mats had the most points out of any Ranger over the last season. He had a team-leading 44 assists and 59 points. He scored 4 goals in the playoffs. Zuccarello also had great possession numbers.
And his 59 points represented a dip for Zuccarello. Last season, in 1 more game, Zuccarello had 2 more points. He was also robbed for the Masterton trophy.
Derek Stepan is the number one center for the New York Rangers. While Derick Brassard was traded for Mika Zibanejad, Stepan was asked to step up. His fifty-five points were tied for second on the team.
Stepan also scored 6 points in the playoffs and had good possession numbers. His contract is only for 6.5 million and lasts throughout his twenties.
Chris Kreider was fourth on the team in the regular season in points. He added four playoff points, including three goals. His 4.625 million dollar contract lasts until 2020, and he's only 26.
This was Kreider's best season ever, which means he's still growing. His goal scoring led the Rangers as he tallied 28. His Corsi relative was at a high – 8.5% increase.
Kreider's getting the puck into the offensive zone and on net. His reward? Safety from the NHL Expansion Draft.
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Highly Likely: J.T. Miller, Mika Zibanejad
J.T. is a 24-year-old forward who scored 56 regular season points. 22 goals. And he was second on the team in points.
It was his best year and he's been getting nothing but better.
Miller makes just 2.5 million and will be a restricted free agent next season. His possession numbers are out of sync, though.
And that's what makes him less likely to be guaranteed safe in the NHL expansion draft.
The Rangers need to be better in possessing the puck, and Miller can be better.
Mika Zibanejad was the trade return for Derick Brassard. The Rangers liked the young center enough to give him a top 6 spot immediately.
Zibanejad responded by leading the team in points in the playoffs. He had 9 points, including 2 goals. Zibanejad couldn't stay healthy in the regular season, though.
In just 56 games, Zibanejad had 37 points. That's good for tenth on the Rangers roster. And that's why Mika isn't 100% safe in the NHL Expansion Draft.
The Rangers have a lot of players that need to be protected. A lot of them stayed healthy.
Maybe: Jesper Fast
Fast, a 25-year-old winger who lives up to his name was 13th on the roster in points. Though that's in 68 games. Again, the Rangers need to stay healthy.
Fast is a restricted free agent, though, and made an impact on the team. Plus, Fast is able to play a defensive game – 58.7 percent of his zone starts were defensive.
Hopefully: Kevin Hayes
Two guys on this Rangers roster need to be left open for the NHL Expansion Draft. Unfortunately, only two are currently under contract that aren't Nash, Zuccarello, Kreider, Stepan, or Miller.
That's Hayes and Grabner. While Grabner, about to be 30 and with only one year left, can be comfortably exposed, that's not the situation with Hayes.
The Rangers would really like to protect Hayes. Which is why they need to sign somebody like Jesper Fast or Oscar Lindberg or Brandon Pirri to a contract and soon.
If they're able to do that, expect Kevin Hayes to be protected. Otherwise, he may be the odd man out.
NHL Expansion Draft
New York Rangers defenseman Ryan McDonagh (27) against the Minnesota Wild (Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports)
R is for Restrictions
Applicable Rangers defensemen: Marc Staal, Dan Girardi, Ryan McDonagh, Kevin Klein, Nick Holden, Adam Clendening
No Move Clause: Marc Staal, Dan Girardi
I'm going to treat these guys as the same. They have similar contracts (Staal makes just 200K more), are of similar age and are similar problems to the Rangers.
They are problems because of their NMCs, but also because of their play. Both played less than 20 minutes a night, but are paid like they're playing over.
Both put up terrible possession numbers, with Girardi being worse. Girardi had 15 points while Staal had 10. Both played more defensive zone shifts probably just because they couldn't be trusted in the offensive zone.
Both played more defensive zone shifts probably just because they couldn't be trusted in the offensive zone.
Even if the Rangers convince one to waive, though, it may not matter. Vegas is not taking one of those contracts unless a high pick or great prospect is involved.
Still, one of them waving with this knowledge may allow the Rangers to protect a defenseman like Kevin Klein.
Guaranteed: Ryan McDonagh
McDonagh is hands down the Rangers' best defenseman. Well, unless Brady Skjei continues the pace of play he set in the playoffs.
McDonagh averaged 24 minutes a night in the regular season. He then upped that to 27 minutes in the playoffs. He's called on in all situations, but 54.5% of his shifts started in the defensive zone.
Ryan McDonagh also scored 42 points in the regular season. McDonagh had 7 in the playoffs. His possession numbers left something to be desired, though.
NHL Expansion Draft
New York Rangers goalie Henrik Lundqvist (30) stretches prior to the third period against the Ottawa Senators in game four of the second round (Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports)
King Keeps His Seat
Applicable goaltenders: Henrik Lundqvist, Antti Raanta, Mackenzie Skapski
No Move Clause: Henrik Lundqvist
It's fitting that Henrik Lundqvist has an NMC: this is the one that the Rangers should feel strongest about. Lundqvist may be 35, but he remains one of the greatest goaltenders in hockey history.
Lundqvist had the worst year of his career – .910 SV% and 2.74 GAA. Still, that was good enough to win 31 of his 55 starts.
And that worst career year is better than most goaltenders' average. Lundqvist also showed up to the playoffs, playing the Rangers into the second round.
Lundqvist's stats shot up to a .927 SV and 2.25 GAA in the playoffs. Kid's still got it.
Speaking of Kids
Exempt List: Pavel Buchnevich, Jimmy Vesey, Brady Skjei, Sean Day
NHL Expansion Draft
New York Rangers goalie Antti Raanta (32) makes a stick save against the New York Islanders. Raanta may be taken in the NHL Expansion Draft (Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports)
Available Rangers: Kevin Hayes, Michael Grabner, Oscar Lindberg, Brandon Pirri, Kevin Klein, Nick Holden, Adam Clendening, Antti Raanta
Vegas takes Antti Raanta. They have to get at least three goaltenders, and Raanta will be one of the strongest options out there. He costs just 1 million and is an unrestricted free agent next season.
That means that Vegas can afford a test run on Raanta's abilities before paying him a bigger contract. Those abilities have been on display as a backup.
He posted a .922 SV% and a 2.26 GAA in 30 games. Raanta's games played has been steadily rising since 2014, a good sign for the Vegas Golden Knights.
