NHL Power Rankings Week 12: Blue Jackets, Wild on top
In this week’s NHL Power Rankings, the Columbus Blue Jackets remain on top while the Minnesota Wild are quickly rising in the West.
As 2016 is coming to an end, the 2016-17 NHL season has truly begun. This is when the contenders and pretenders tend to separate each other. In this week’s NHL Power Rankings, that’s precisely what is happening. By this point, most teams know (or should know) whether or not they’re going to make a Stanley Cup run.
The Metropolitan Division has been extremely good as of late. Even with the Philadelphia Flyers’ 10 game win streak recently coming to an end, the Metro still has five of the top 10 teams in point percentage. Over their past 50 games (10 games per team), those teams are a combined 37-8-5. Of course, they have yet to face each other that much. For example, the Washington Capitals have only played the other teams in question from the Metropolitan Division a combined six times.
Because games in hand can make the regular standings deceiving, this power ranking focuses heavily on point percentage, or the percent of possible points a team has. For example, if a team has a 4-1-0 record or a 3-0-2 record, it would give them a .800 point percentage. In short, they’ve gotten 80 percent of the 10 points possible.
Also taken into consideration is how well a team is playing. In the NHL, winning matters a lot. However, one’s record doesn’t necessarily reflect how well a team is playing. All wins and losses aren’t equal. The team’s record certainly counts, but so do a lot of other things. All stats, unless otherwise noted, are courtesy of Corsica and are at even strength (five on five). They are also score, venue, and zone adjusted unless otherwise noted. If you’re curious about expected goals for percentage (xGF percentage), which will be referenced throughout the rankings, here’s a good reading. For baseball fans, think of it as FIP for teams except with offense in the equation.
Without further ado, here are the final NHL Power Rankings of 2016.
Mandatory Credit: Bruce Fedyck-USA TODAY Sports
Colorado Avalanche
(12-20-1)
Last week: 1-5-0Last rank: 30th
The Colorado Avalanche are continuing their free fall. They have the worst point percentage in the NHL and their 43.31 xGF percentage is the second worst. Colorado desperately needs to shake up their core. At the very least, trades are needed. They tried simply replacing Patrick Roy, but that wasn’t enough. Matt Duchene and Nathan MacKinnon have been bright spots for an otherwise dark season. Head coach Jared Bednar and general manager Joe Sakic have their work cut out for them.29
Arizona Coyotes
(11-18-5)
Last week: 2-4-0Last rank: 29th
Many (this writer included) thought the Arizona Coyotes could be the surprise team of the 2016-17 NHL season. After a successful 2015-16 campaign, they made several improvements, including signing free agent defenseman Alex Goligoski. However, they have been extremely disappointing all season long. Their xGF percentage of 41.34 is the worst in the NHL and they are among the league’s worst puck possession teams. Patience is needed for this team to get better, but it might not be an option with a fanbase desperate for a winning team.28
New York Islanders
(13-14-6)
Last week: 2-3-1Last rank: 23rd
The New York Islanders had a chance to make a move in the Metropolitan Division. However, thanks to the rest of the division being great and blowing some chances against the teams ahead of them, they sit in last place in the Eastern Conference. Sure, their 47.16 xGF percentage suggests maybe they aren’t as bad as their record suggests. But the Islanders aren’t a deep team at all. They rely on John Tavares to provide way too much offense and it’s costing them. Elite talent can overcome a relatively low xGF percentage, but the Islanders don’t have nearly enough of it. Next: 27 to 25
Mandatory Credit: Kevin Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports
Buffalo Sabres
(12-13-8)
Last week: 2-2-2Last rank: 25th
The Buffalo Sabres rebuilding process has been quite painful at times. However, with Ryan O’Reilly and Jack Eichel at center for the next few seasons, there’s definitely some hope. But they are still a team needing to push to get more talent. Getting anything in return for Evander Kane would be a significant victory. They also need to overhaul their blue line, with Rasmus Ristolainen and Jake McCabe being their only defensemen worth keeping around long-term. Robin Lehner has been very good, though he still needs a capable backup with his health always a question mark.26
New Jersey Devils
(13-14-7)
Last week: 1-4-1Last rank: 17th
The New Jersey Devils are starting to significantly slump. They have won just two of their last 10 games with a 2-6-2 record. The slump in question finds them in third to last place in the Eastern Conference, just a few points above the Islanders and Sabres. Also, they have a -22 goal differential, which is one of the worst in the league. New Jersey’s xGF percentage of 46.05 is better than that of the Chicago Blackhawks. However, the Hawks have the elite skill necessary to potentially overcome their weak underlying numbers. The Devils don’t.25
Vancouver Canucks
(14-18-3)
Last week: 2-3-1Last rank: 28th
One could argue the Vancouver Canucks are the worst off team in the NHL. An argument could be had for the Colorado Avalanche, but at least they seem to realize they need to rebuild. The Vancouver Canucks, however, aren’t as alert as them. After a poor 2015-16 season, a rebuild was needed. Instead, the Canucks traded for an overrated defenseman and signed an aging Loui Eriksson. This is not what a rebuilding team does. Canucks fans deserve much better. Hopefully their team realizes how desperately a rebuild is needed.Next: 24 to 22
Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
Dallas Stars
(14-14-7)
Last week: 3-1-1Last rank: 26th
No team has been more disappointing than the Dallas Stars. After nearly making it to the Western Conference Finals without Tyler Seguin, even after losing Jason Demers and Alex Goligoski, many saw the Stars as a Stanley Cup contender. Injuries and inconsistency have been crutches for them this season. Their blue line’s inexperience has been an obstacle too tough for them to overcome thus far. Subpar goaltending has hurt them as well, but this was an issue even before this season began.23
Winnipeg Jets
(16-17-3)
Last week: 3-1-0Last rank: 27th
The Winnipeg Jets are in rebuilding mode, but they’re farther along than a lot of people think. Patrik Laine has been a spark for their offense, providing them with the most confident, fun to watch, and electric goal scoring rookie since Alex Ovechkin. Getting franchise cornerstone players is hard, but Winnipeg has a pretty impressive core of forwards. Now their issues revolve around getting more forward depth and blue line help. The difference between their top two forward lines and their bottom two forward lines is huge. Also, their defensemen, excluding Dustin Byfuglien and Jacob Trouba, aren’t impressive.22
Detroit Red Wings
(15-15-4)
Last week: 2-3-0Last rank: 19th
Barring something unforeseen, this season should be the end of the Detroit Red Wings epic playoff streak. It’s the most impressive in NHL history. However, perhaps it has served as an excuse for the Red Wings to not do a necessary rebuild in recent years. You obviously want your team to win, but in Detroit’s case, not winning should be a good thing as well. If nothing else, it should provide the proper incentive for the Red Wings to reexamine their team and add younger talent. Losing Pavel Datsyuk hurt, but imagine once Detroit doesn’t have Nicklas Kronwall or Henrik Zetterberg. Next: 21 to 19
Mandatory Credit: Sergei Belski-USA TODAY Sports
Florida Panthers
(15-14-6)
Last week: 2-2-2Last rank: 21st
With a 3-3-4 record over their last 10 games, the Florida Panthers have once again stalled. It appeared they might be getting a push, finally starting to look like the team people thought they would be in September. However, inconsistency, as it has all season, reared its ugly head. This is not the time for the Panthers to panic though. Florida still needs to get Jonathan Huberdeau back. At that point, they can look at where their team is. Keep an eye on the Panthers because they could be very intriguing sellers at the NHL trade deadline should they choose to do so. 20
Calgary Flames
(18-16-2)
Last week: 2-3-0Last rank: 16th
The Calgary Flames are a very hard team to figure out. Are they contenders or pretenders? At times, the Flames have looked like they could contend for the Stanley Cup. However, they have also looked like a team lost without purpose. Even though the Brian Elliott trade hasn’t worked out, signing Chad Johnson certainly has. Their 47.43 xGF percentage is the seventh worst in the NHL, but their 49.60 Corsi For percentage is steadily rising. It’s not where it should be, but it’s getting closer. Thanks to a very weak Pacific Division outside of its top two teams, a playoff spot is well within the realm of possibility for Calgary.19
Tampa Bay Lightning
(17-15-3)
Last week: 3-2-1Last rank: 20th
Without their captain Steven Stamkos, the Tampa Bay Lightning were able to make it to the Eastern Conference finals in 2015-16. Even without such a great talent, they pushed the Pittsburgh Penguins to seven games. So when Stamkos got injured earlier this season, people thought they would be fine. This hasn’t been the case so far. The Lightning have struggled to play complete games. When their offense is doing well, it feels like their defense is off. Whenever their defense is doing well, Tampa Bay can’t score. Regardless of what they want to do for the rest of the 2016-17 NHL season, more starts in goal for Andrei Vasilevskiy should be a part of it. The Lightning’s future rests on his shoulders.Next: 18 through 16
Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
Carolina Hurricanes
(15-11-7)
Last week: 4-0-1Last rank: 24th
The Carolina Hurricanes are very close to being a playoff team. They’re very far along in their rebuild. After an aggressive offseason that saw them address their forward core, Carolina is merely seven points out of a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. They face an uphill battle, as the entire Metropolitan Division is killing it as of late, but don’t rule them out. The Hurricanes have been amazing at home, going 10-3-1 this season. However, Carolina still struggles on the road. In order to take the next step, they must learn how to compete away from home. But they’ve already come a long way.17
Nashville Predators
(15-13-5)
Last week: 3-2-1Last rank: 18th
After starting the month of December 1-3-1 in their first five games, the Nashville Predators have rebounded to get back to sitting just outside the postseason. However, considering their games in hand over other teams, Nashville’s path to the NHL playoffs isn’t as difficult as it might appear. It took P.K. Subban a while to adjust to Nashville, but as expected, he has been fantastic for them. Pekka Rinne has been quite inconsistent as their goaltender this season and could be their weakest link. Filip Forsberg has been getting points even though he has yet to find his scoring touch. Watch out if he manages to locate it.16
Toronto Maple Leafs
(14-12-7)
Last week: 3-1-2Last rank: 22nd
The Toronto Maple Leafs enter the post-Christmas portion of the 2016-17 NHL season on a good note, winning two straight games and getting at least a point in seven of their last 10 games. They are a very young team, but an undeniably skilled and fun one to watch. Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander have formed a trio of rookies, each of them with at least 20 points. It’s remarkable how mature they are, with each of them working through slumps and hard times. However, to take the next step in their rebuild, Toronto must improve their blue line. Mike Babcock said there would be pain, and it rings true even in that next step. To get the defenseman the Maple Leafs need, they’ll have to part with someone good.Next: 15 through 13
Mandatory Credit: Marc DesRosiers-USA TODAY Sports
Boston Bruins
(18-14-4)
Last week: 2-2-2Last rank: 15th
The Boston Bruins’ underlying numbers suggest they are better than their record suggests. A xGF percentage of 55.00 percent puts them second in the NHL. However, their offense hasn’t been scoring as expected. Patrice Bergeron has been snake bit all season long. Despite generating shots at an impressive rate, his 4.3 shooting percentage is far below his career average of 10.0 percent. David Pastrnak and Brad Marchand have largely carried the team as far as scoring, with David Krejci occasionally helping out. Goaltender Tuukka Rask has been great, but they need to find him a backup.14
Anaheim Ducks
(17-12-6)
Last week: 2-3-1Last rank: 13th
So far, head coach Randy Carlyle’s second tenure with the Anaheim Ducks has gone relatively well. It seems he has learned his lessons from his disastrous stay with the Toronto Maple Leafs. However, the Ducks should be quite concerned with John Gibson. Anaheim made a necessary decision, picking their young goaltender over Frederik Andersen. The two goalie system never worked for them. But did they choose the wrong goalie? Andersen has a .923 save percentage for the Maple Leafs while Gibson’s is merely .907.13
Los Angeles Kings
(17-13-4)
Last week: 3-2-2Last rank: 13th
As usual, the Los Angeles Kings have a phenomenal Corsi For percentage (54.00 percent, second in the NHL). Their xGF percentage is promising too, as their 52.79 percent mark is among the best in the league. Credit the Kings for finding a way to have success even without Jonathan Quick. Peter Budaj has been solid, but they must find a second member to their tandem. Anze Kopitar needs to get going, but his struggles are more due to bad luck than bad play. Jeff Carter has picked up the slack for him.Next: 12 through 10
Mandatory Credit: Derik Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
St. Louis Blues
(18-12-5)
Last week: 2-3-1Last rank: 9th
So far in the 2016-17 NHL season, the St. Louis Blues have been plagued by inconsistency. At times, they have looked every bit as good as they did in the 2015-16 postseason, when they made it all the way to the Western Conference Finals. However, the Blues have also struggled mightily at times this year. It’s been an up and down season for them, and right now, the roller coaster is going down. The Blues’ 50.75 xGF percentage is slipping, which is a bit of a concern. But their major issue has been a lack of goaltending. Neither Jake Allen nor Carter Hutton have been impressive. 11
Philadelphia Flyers
(20-12-4)
Last week: 2-2-1Last rank: 7th
After an amazing 10 game win streak, the Philadelphia Flyers have been falling back down to earth. Since the winning streak ended, they have gone 1-2-1, though the lone win was against a very good Washington Capitals team. NHL teams are mostly streaky by nature, but the Flyers have been especially so this season. They could be a very dangerous team in the playoffs if they happen to catch fire at the right time. On the other hand, it’s not hard to see another first round exit.10
Edmonton Oilers
(18-12-6)
Last week: 3-1-1Last rank: 14th
The Edmonton Oilers continue their surprising season. However, let’s pump the brakes just a bit. Connor McDavid is their heir apparent to Sidney Crosby. It’s only natural for a team to rely quite heavily on such a generational superstar. But Edmonton relies on McDavid a bit too much. He has 42 points in 36 games. Only three other Oilers have even half of that. Leon Draisaitl has been helping with 31 points, but Edmonton has to address their depth. Also, the Oilers’ blue line hasn’t been that great. They should look into further rebuilding it. Next: 9 through 7
Mandatory Credit: Neville E. Guard-USA TODAY Sports
Ottawa Senators
(20-11-3)
Last week: 4-0-1Last rank: 9th
Figures once the Ottawa Senators got hot, a bunch of other teams would as well. Such is life. While their 49.07 xGF percentage is nothing to write home about, they’ve been getting consistently great goaltending. There isn’t a soul among hockey fans who isn’t rooting for goaltender Craig Anderson. His wife is undergoing cancer treatment and he’s just plugging along. Ottawa has rallied behind him, proving sports is sometimes more than just a game. It can also create some very inspiring stories. The Senators have 10 players with at least 10 points. 8
San Jose Sharks
(21-12-1)
Last week: 5-1-0Last rank: 11th
Finally, the San Jose Sharks offense is starting to get their bite back. Granted, Brent Burns, Joe Thornton, Logan Couture and Joe Pavelski have been carrying the team thus far. However, if those four guys keep playing at such a high level, their defense might be elite enough to make it work. Mikkel Boedker hasn’t been productive so far, with just six points in 34 games. Patrick Marleau is finally starting to show his age and despite his last name, he’s not aging like a fine wine.7
New York Rangers
(23-12-1)
Last week: 3-3-0Last rank: 5th
Is it time to start worrying about the New York Rangers? Their defensive concerns are becoming much more obvious, especially with their offense cooling off in the winter. Though the Rangers still lead the league in goals, they are 18th in the NHL in goals during the month of December. While this might have a lot to do with their recent injuries, it’s a red flag because the Rangers need to score goals in order to win. When New York’s offense is hot, it can overcome their relatively mediocre defense. But right now, they aren’t scoring.Next: 6 through 4
Mandatory Credit: Jean-Yves Ahern-USA TODAY Sports
Montreal Canadiens
(21-9-4)
Last week: 2-3-0Last rank: 2nd
Lately, the Montreal Canadiens have not been playing well. It reflects in their record, as they have won just five of their last 10 games and have lost two straight games. The Canadiens are beginning to miss Alex Galchenyuk and David Desharnais, as their centers simply aren’t producing without them. Star defenseman Shea Weber has just two points (both assists) in his last 13 games. However, Max Pacioretty has finally gotten going with 13 points in 12 games during the month of December.5
Washington Capitals
(20-8-4)
Last week: 3-1-1Last rank: 4th
Right now, the Washington Capitals have to feel pretty good about where they are. Alex Ovechkin hasn’t started his annual onslaught of goals (immediately after everyone starts questioning if he’s slowing down). Evgeny Kuznetsov has slowed down after a five game point streak suggested he might be back. However, other players like Nicklas Backstrom and Marcus Johansson have stepped up. John Carlson is starting to get his swagger back after a slow start to the season. The Caps don’t have many holes, so it should be interesting to see what they do around the trade deadline.4
Chicago Blackhawks
(22-9-5)
Last week: 4-1-1Last rank: 6th
After the Chicago Blackhawks lost Corey Crawford, people thought they would start playing worse. At some point, people will learn to quit questioning them until they prove otherwise. Scott Darling did admirably replacing Crawford, perhaps earning himself a well-deserved opportunity to start after the 2016-17 season. But it sure won’t be in Chicago. The Blackhawks have had a pretty balanced offense this year, even with Patrick Kane and Artemi Panarin carrying the load. Marian Hossa is back to his usual underrated self.Next: 3 through 1
Mandatory Credit: Jean-Yves Ahern-USA TODAY Sports
Pittsburgh Penguins
(22-8-5)
Last week: 3-1-2Last rank: 3rd
Sidney Crosby is continuing his rampage of scoring. He got bored scoring on sick backhands, so lately, he’s starting to get really good at deflections and knocking pucks out of the air and into the net. Enough words can’t be written about how amazing Crosby is in every aspect of hockey. Matt Murray is proving to be one heck of a goaltender, though Marc Andre-Fleury has done himself no favors as far as earning playing time. It’s been one heck of a year for the reigning Stanley Cup champions. If they can stay relatively healthy, Pittsburgh should be prepared to defend their title. 2
Minnesota Wild
(21-8-4)
Last week: 6-0-0Last rank: 2nd
Maybe the spirit of Prince is helping the Minnesota Wild go crazy. Perhaps their festive uniforms are inspiring their play. Maybe it’s just simply Bruce Boudreau’s patented coaching magic. Whatever it is, the Wild have won their last 10 games. Not only that, they’ve looked quite impressive in doing so. Devan Dubnyk is having the type of season that should get him a Vezina Trophy if he keeps it up. Even without a 100 percent healthy Zach Parise, Minnesota has been dominating. They lack a star, but they’ve become much more than just a collection of skaters and goalies. Minnesota is a true team and are proof of what happens if everyone buys in.Must Read: NHL Awards: Who Ruled 2016?1
Columbus Blue Jackets
(23-5-4)
Last week: 6-0-0Last rank: 1st
The Columbus Blue Jackets have been in a very pleasant dream since the beginning of November. Since November 1st, they have won 20 games while losing just two in regulation and three in overtime. If it’s a dream, don’t wake them up because Columbus has been extremely fun to watch. Cam Atkinson is emerging as a bonafide superstar. Sergei Bobrovsky will get serious Vezina Trophy consideration if he keeps up his torrent pace. Sam Gagner seems to have finally realized his true potential with some help from the coaching staff. Give the Blue Jackets credit, they’ve been putting him in situations where he is most likely to have success. John Tortorella’s deployment of Gagner alone makes him a legitimate Jack Adams Trophy candidate. His team’s filling out a pretty impressive coach of the year resume for him as well.
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