NHL Predictions: Pacific Division 5 Bold Projections
NHL Predictions: Calgary Flames defenseman Mark Giordano (5) collides with Los Angeles Kings left wing Andy Andreoff (15) at Scotiabank Saddledome. Kings won 5-4 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Candice Ward-USA TODAY Sports
NHL Predictions: 5 Bold Projections – The Western Conference’s Pacific Division is Coming off a Down Year Overall, But at Least Managed to Produce a Stanley Cup Finalist. With Every Team Looking to Improve in the Upcoming Campaign, Expect the Pacific Race to be Much More Exciting.
Following a Puck Prose tradition, it’s about time for another edition of our five bold NHL predictions. We typically release these in anticipation of important dates, such as the trade deadline, All-Star break, start of playoffs, free agency, etc. Now, with a new season set to begin on Wednesday, it’s time to settle in for another long, exciting nine months or so of hockey.
At the beginning of 2015-16, we released a league-wide edition for our five bold NHL predictions. It’s tricky to make accurate projections this early in the year, but we managed to hit on the Dallas Stars being a powerhouse team in the West emerging as a Stanley Cup contender. We also got lucky with our prediction that Connor McDavid would match/or exceed a point-per-game pace in his rookie season – luckily we made sure to protect ourselves to an injury opposed to making an actual point estimate.
April 15, 2016; Anaheim, CA, USA; Anaheim Ducks center Ryan Getzlaf (15) celebrates his goal scored against Nashville Predators during the first period in game one of the first round of the 2016 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Honda Center. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
We’re shifting gears a bit for 2016-17. Instead of five league-wide predictions, we’ve decided to split it up into a divisional series. Lastly, we finish in the Western Conference looking at the Pacific Division.
Anaheim finished atop the division in 2015-16 with 103 points – the same point total as third-place Chicago in the Central, although the Blackhawks had a better ROW record. The Ducks had a strong second half last year leading into the postseason, but fell short to the Preds in a hard-fought seven game series in round one. Second place Los Angeles (102 points) matched up with third place San Jose (98 points) in the opening round. As we know, the Sharks carried their momentum all the way to their first Stanley Cup Finals appearance.
On the outside looking in was Arizona (78 points), Calgary (77 points), Vancouver (75 points), and Edmonton (70 points). All four of these teams have taken steps to ensure they improve in 2016-17. Will this division be able to provide more than three playoff participants? That remains to be seen, but one thing is for sure; the race in the Pacific will be a lot more exciting in the upcoming campaign.
Oct 12, 2016; San Jose, CA, USA; San Jose Sharks defenseman Brent Burns (88) celebrates scoring a goal against the Los Angeles Kings in the third period at SAP Center at San Jose. The Sharks won 2-1. Mandatory Credit: John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports
Pacific Only Manages to Produce Three Playoff Participants… Again
A year ago, the Pacific were in tough against a powerhouse Central Division. Oddly enough, the 3rd place San Jose Sharks (98pts) managed to come out on top in the Western Conference. It could be an eerily similar look in 2016-17. To be honest, we wouldn’t be surprised to see 7 of 8 teams make a postseason return in the West.
Expect St. Louis, Dallas, and Chicago to battle it out atop the Central Division once again – it could actually wind up being four teams if Nashville‘s experiment on the blue line works out. That doesn’t leave any room for Minnesota, Colorado, or Winnipeg unless something drastic happens to change a team’s fortunes.
The Pacific Division is a little more wide open. Teams such as San Jose, Anaheim, Los Angeles, and even Calgary are expected to fight atop the standings. Those top spots aren’t as much of a lock as the Central, leaving teams like Arizona, Edmonton, and Vancouver with a real chance to surprise.
Pacific Division X-Factors That Could Produce a Playoff Berth:
Arizona Coyotes Goaltending/Rookie Performers
Brian Elliott/Calgary Flames Defense
Connor McDavid/Improved Oilers Defense/Cam Talbot
Canucks Top Line Produces/Secondary Scoring Emerges/Jacob Markstrom
Oct 12, 2016; San Jose, CA, USA; Los Angeles Kings head coach Darryl Sutter watches the game against the San Jose Sharks in the second period at SAP Center at San Jose. Mandatory Credit: John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports
Los Angeles Kings Narrowly Miss Playoffs with Decent Record
In full disclosure, this prediction was made before the season opener on Wednesday. The “week-to-week” injury sustained by Jonathan Quick only gives comfort to the notion that LA could wind up being the 13th/14th seed in the lottery draft. Now, it doesn’t mean the Kings are destined to have a disastrous season. They could put up a solid record north of 90 points and still miss out based on Central Division foes.
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A combination of factors could unfortunately work against the Kings in 2016-17 (aside from Losing Quick). The most glaring weakness remains on the blue line alongside Alec Martinez.
It was a void left by Slava Voynov nearly two years ago that has yet to be addressed. Until LA finds a suitable partner for Martinez, the Kings will struggle to make any noise in the regular season, let alone playoffs.
Another issue is the leadership group. They made an important shift in captaincy with Anze Kopitar, but you have to wonder if the demotion of Dustin Brown will cause any friction in the dressing room.
Worst of all, Brown has six years remaining on an eight-year contract which carries a cap hit of $5.75 million dollars.
Even the expansion club in Las Vegas is unlikely to have any interest based on his digression in play. One of the only remaining options is a buyout – but that would be disastrous and nearly impossible to pull off. A buyout would last until 2027-28 with the final six years carrying a cap hit of $1.805 million dollars.
Los Angeles faces quite the conundrum.
Oct 12, 2016; Edmonton, Alberta, CAN; Edmonton Oilers forward Connor McDavid (97) celebrates a second period gaol against the Calgary Flames at Rogers Place. Mandatory Credit: Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports
Connor McDavid Wins Art Ross Trophy
Another prediction that was made prior to opening night. That’s why the three points on Wednesday isn’t overly surprising. Barring another serious injury, there’s very little that should stop the Oilers phenom from leading the NHL in scoring. Heck, his point-per-game rate was almost on par with Patrick Kane in 2015-16 in just his rookie season. This kid is going to be something special for fans to marvel at for years to come.
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He racked up 48 points in 45 games in 2015-16. Connor went on a tear following his return from injury and wound up being named a Calder Trophy finalist even with limited action.
How do we know to expect big things from not only Connor McDavid, but the Oilers as a whole?
That’s just what tends to happen when you have a generational talent on the roster. You didn’t see Wayne Gretzky or Mario Lemieux on constant bottom feeders. Just as you don’t see Sidney Crosby or Alex Ovechkin playing in a constant losing environment.
Players like this tend to make everyone around them better. Not just that though, it makes a GMs job a heck of a lot easier with more margin for error in decisions when you’ve got a guy who can almost single-handedly win you games on a nightly basis (or at least have a significant impact).
Projected Stat-Line (if healthy season): 40 goals, 64 assists (104 points)
Mar 14, 2016; Anaheim, CA, USA;Anaheim Ducks defenseman Cam Fowler (4) skates with the puck against the New Jersey Devils at Honda Center. The Ducks won 7-1. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Cam Fowler is Traded in the Very Near Future
Anaheim began the new season on Thursday without two notable faces: Rickard Rakell and Hampus Lindholm. Rookie D Jacob Larsson and F Nick Sorensen made their NHL debut, while top defensive prospect Shea Theodore begins the year down in the AHL.
Apr 25, 2016; Nashville, TN, USA; Anaheim Ducks defenseman Cam Fowler (4) reacts after a loss against the Nashville Predators in game six of the first round of the 2016 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Bridgestone Arena. The Predators won 3-1. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
This is all well and fine to start the new season, but we can expect a bit of movement in the near future to help get this roster in order for the long grind of an 82-game season.
The reason Shea Theodore will start the year down in San Diego is because there’s not enough room in the Ducks top-four defense group. Sure, they could play him in the bottom pairing, give him 16-18 minutes/night and risk stunting his development. Or, he assumes top minutes down in the AHL and continues to produce while waiting for his big opportunity in Anaheim.
That big chance could come fairly soon. We’ve known for months now that GM Bob Murray has no choice but to trade Cam Fowler. They already risk losing a quality defenseman in the expansion draft, and cannot afford to leave someone like Fowler unprotected as well. It only makes sense to make room for a top prospect who doesn’t need protection in order to address major holes in the forward group. I mean, Vermette logging big minutes in the opener is a troubling sign, isn’t it?
Potential Fits for Cam Fowler: Colorado Avalanche, Dallas Stars, Detroit Red Wings
Oct 5, 2016; Calgary, Alberta, CAN; Arizona Coyotes goalie Mike Smith (41) makes a save against Calgary Flames during the third period during a preseason hockey game at Scotiabank Saddledome. Calgary Flames won 2-1. Mandatory Credit: Sergei Belski-USA TODAY Sports
Arizona Coyotes Address Goaltending Before Trade Deadline
Heading into 2016-17, the Arizona Coyotes will start with four rookies in their lineup. Two were expected in forwards Dylan Strome and Christian Dvorak. The other two were a bit of a surprise in defenseman Jakob Chychrun and forward Laurent Dauphin.
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Even with a rookie infusion, the Coyotes are an organization ready to start turning a corner. In fact, Arizona has their sights set on a playoff berth in the upcoming season. Several things must come together in order for this to happen, but perhaps the most important is solid goaltending.
Veteran Mike Smith was outstanding when he first arrived in the Desert, but unfortunately, it’s been downhill ever since. In 2014-15, he posted a record of 14-42-5 with a 3.16GAA and .904 save percentage. He looked a little better at the start of 2015-16, but the oft-injured netminder once again found himself on the IR.
Louis Domingue had an immediate impact upon call-up, and wound up being named Rookie of the Month in January. His play began to trickle off over the final months, finishing with a record of 15-18-4, a 2.75GAA and .912 save percentage.
Believe it or not, Yotes fans are surprisingly optimistic about their goaltending moving forward. They are many out there who believe Mike Smith can make better on his lucrative long-term deal. Meanwhile, others have no concern because they’ve got complete faith in Louis Domingue as the future between the pipes.
It won’t take long for new GM John Chayka to figure out this is false optimism. How many goalies have had great short-term success in Arizona, only to have their play eventually fall off the map? Most times, the Coyotes have already moved on from that netminder, making this a first for one to implode within the organization. Think about it… Mikael Tellqvist, Brian Boucher, Ilya Bryzgalov. So, the question is, how do you rid yourself of Mike Smith’s $5.66 million dollar cap hit for three more years (with a no-movement clause)?
On the flip side, here’s the problem with Domingue. Sure, he looked good in temporary relief for a little while. So did Toronto‘s Garret Sparks though. In fact, both of these guys made a lot of noise early before their play trickled off. It’s not to say that Domingue doesn’t have a future in the NHL, but perhaps he’s just not ready. After all, he’s only a year older than Sparks who is 23 – relatively young in goalie years.
The answer? A stop-gap option. That means a temporary (usually two to three-year) option to fill the void until something emerges from the prospect pool.
Arizona has virtually no cap space to add players after taking on dead money. It would take a bit of tinkering to bring in another decent contract, but that process only becomes easier as the season progresses. For example, if they wanted to take on a Fleury or Bishop type contract, far less money is owed for the remainder of the season the longer a team waits.
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