Philadelphia Flyers: D Andrew MacDonald is a Known (Mediocre) Quantity
With all the attention on the youth, an equally important question is if the Philadelphia Flyers veteran D Andrew MacDonald has a place in the lineup
It’s much more exciting to talk about Ivan Provorov with the Philadelphia Flyers. How good is he? Can he make the team?
At the other end of the spectrum is consideration of a veteran like Andrew MacDonald. A pariah among Philadelphia Flyers fans and hockey analytics geeks, the Flyers parked his $30 million contract in the AHL last season. Will we see that again this year?
The contrast is especially interesting after last night’s preseason game against the New York Islanders. MacDonald and Provorov were paired together for the game, and measured by shot differential, they were the Flyers’ worst pair of the night.
There’s nothing that can be done about that massive contract of MacDonald’s–it is what it is. Be that as it may, it’s worth taking a look at how MacDonald has performed in his 2+ seasons in Philadelphia.
Stat Stuff
First, some context and nerd talk. The most popular statistical way to judge a player these days is basically shot tracking. “Corsi” counts up all the shot attempts for both teams while a player is on the ice (even if they’re blocked or go wide) to produce what is basically a “shot attempt plus/minus” rating.
Stat guys have found this to be a very reliable measure. This measurement applied to players usually repeats itself and continues at a steady rate, unlike scoring rates that randomly go on streaks. Furthermore, in the long term, it predicts who is going to win on the scoreboard in goals in the future, even more accurately than looking at past goals.
So for this piece, I’ll look at Corsi based stats. I’ll go a little further, and use “expected goals” as calculated at the corsica.hockey website. This measure takes Corsi events, but adds shot quality (based on situation and location) to the calculation. Lastly, those numbers are adjusted taking into account score of the game, zone starts, and venue.
So. We can go back and look at a single number to roughly estimate general effectiveness of the Philadelphia Flyers defensemen. This is where MacDonald gets so much scorn from hockey analytics guys. Despite visible skating, passing, and shot blocking skills, MacDonald almost always gets killed in shot counts.
MacDonald’s Year-to-Year Performance in Philly
Starting in the March of 2013 when MacDonald joined the Flyers, and comparing him to peers just from that date on, you see MacDonald struggle in the chart below.
*Note that stats charted above only cover games after March 8, 2014, when Andrew MacDonald joined the Flyers.
Nevertheless, then-Flyers GM Paul Holmgren liked what he saw enough to reward MacDonald with a big, long term contract.
The next season, Flyers fans begin to turn on MacDonald, although his performance may have actually been considerably better.
On a defensive corps that struggled across the board as the team missed the playoffs, MacDonald is near the top of the group.
The next season, MacDonald lost his job. He spent the majority of the season as a very well paid AHL player with the Phantoms. He only got a chance to come up when Michael Del Zotto suffered a season ending injury.
Here’s the stats for Philadelphia Flyers defensemen from the date MacDonald was called up through the Flyers’ 1st round playoff loss.
*Note that stats charted above only cover games after February 14, 2016, when Andrew MacDonald joined the Flyers NHL lineup.
Based on what I see online, many Flyers fans view MacDonald’s late season call up last season as a modest success. Despite very poor performance in shot-based metrics, MacDonald was a remarkable +10 in his 28 regular season games.
If you believe at all in shot-based metrics, there’s not much reason to believe in Andrew MacDonald as anything more than a depth, mediocre NHL defenseman. His old-fashion plus/minus last season was likely a fluke. Furthermore, he was a significant drag on Ghost’s shot differential when the 2 players were paired together last spring. Perhaps he had the same effect on Provorov the other night.
The point of the preseason is not make sweeping judgments on a player. Nonetheless, when the early indicators point to a continuation of a long-standing trends, it’s more like a confirmation.
There’s no use wringing your hands over MacDonald’s contract. He will get his money no matter what, and the Philadelphia Flyers will save an equal amount on their cap regardless of who they send down to the AHL. Judging MacDonald on performance alone, he is simply a flexible, 3rd pair guy.
Perhaps a case could be made to take him over Manning when it comes to final cuts, but we might already be seeing evidence that MacDonald hasn’t changed–any Flyers defenseman who plays with MacDonald may see their on-ice shot metrics take a dive, and that doesn’t really help anyone in the long run.
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