"I think we need to add a little bit more depth on defense to make sure... I mean defense is a position that if you have injuries you're going to be in a tough situation,” Columbus Blue Jackets GM Jarmo Kekalainen told FOX Sports on March 28.
We are now at the tail end of the NHL offseason, and Kekalainen has added one defenseman to his roster, John Ramage, who has played just one NHL game in his entire career.
To say Columbus’ offseason was a let down is quite obviously incorrect, as the team added two-time Stanley Cup winner Brandon Saad to the forward group in a trade that sent Artem Anisimov, Jeremy Morin, Marko Dano , Corey Tropp and a fourth-round pick in the 2016 draft to the Chicago Blackhawks.
But to say the Blue Jackets have yet to address their offseason needs is very much true. Kekalainen said himself that he wanted to add a defenseman to improve their depth. And he certainly tried. According to Aaron Portzline, the Columbus Blue Jackets beat writer for The Columbus Dispatch, Kekalainen had made an offer to Christian Ehrhoff, one of the top UFA defenseman still left on the table after July 1.
#CBJ have had an offer on table for UFA D Christian Ehrhoff for weeks now. It's way below the $4M he made w #Pens, but CBJ have cap issues.
— Aaron Portzline (@Aportzline) August 3, 2015
But Ehrhoff signed a one-year, $1.5 million deal with the Los Angeles Kings, and Kekalainen was left kicking dirt with his hands in his pockets.
An Ehrhoff signing wouldn’t have just addressed Kekalainen’s desire to add depth to his defensive corps, it would have addressed a defensive need for Columbus. Because Kekalainen doesn’t just have to add a defenseman for the sake of depth, he has to improve the defense all together.
Lets take a look at the Blue Jackets’ primary defensemen from last season that remain on the team for this year. Last year, the Blue Jackets had five defensemen that played at least 50 games that are slated to return next season: David Savard, Jack Johnson, Fedor Tyutin, Dalton Prout and Kevin Connauton. So we are going to primarily look at how they did last season.
Now, right off the bat, we know that, defensively, the Columbus Blue Jackets weren’t all that stellar. The team ranked 25th in the league in goals against, surrendering 250 total goals last season. Initially, we could conclude that may have been due to poor goaltending, and most other teams came to that same conclusion. Of the eight teams that allowed more than 230 goals, five of them added a goaltender either through free agency or a trade during the offseason.
But the Blue Jackets have Sergei Bobrovsky, who was just two years removed from a Vezina Trophy as the league’s top goaltender last season. And his .918 save percentage last year doesn’t immediately jump out as a problem.
So let’s visualize the Blue Jackets defensemen through a graph provided by War On Ice. This graph will show us a few things. The Y-axis of this graph represents each individual player’s usage against opposition. The higher up the circle is on the Y-axis, the tougher the competition the player tends to play against. The X-axis shows where the player is generally deployed on the ice. If the circle is to the right of the “0,” that player is generally deployed in the offensive zone, and if it’s to the left of the “0,” the player is generally deployed in the defensive zone. The color of the circle shows the player’s Corsi-for percentage. Corsi-for percentage shows how often a player possesses the puck by measuring how many shots he and his line mates generate when that specific player is on the ice (which is good for a defenseman. If a defenseman is generating shots when he is on the ice, it means his team generally has the puck when he’s on the ice, meaning the opposition doesn’t, and they therefore can’t score/generate offense). Basically, the darker the red, the more the opposition has the puck on their stick when that player is on the ice. The darker the blue, the more he and his teammates have the puck (blue is good, red is bad!). The size of the circle shows the total time on ice for the player, but it’s not going to vary too terribly much for these five defensemen. All of these numbers are from last season’s even strength five-on-five time. Here’s that graph for those five Blue Jackets defensemen last season. All graphs provided by War On Ice.
Right off the bat, we can immediately tell that not a single Blue Jackets defenseman out-possessed the opposition. We can also tell that Savard and Johnson were utilized primarily as the team’s “shutdown” defensive pair, where they were trusted to lock up opponents’ top lines. We can also see that Prout wasn’t trusted defensively nearly as much as the other four, and Connauton was sheltered, playing primarily in the offensive zone (which helped him, he was second among Columbus defensemen in goals scored despite playing the least amount of games among these five defensemen).
It’s certainly not encouraging to see, but how does it compare against other team’s defensemen
In my opinion, two of the better defensive units in the league belong to the Nashville Predators and the Chicago Blackhawks. So let’s compare the Blue Jackets defensemen to these two teams. Let’s start with the Chicago Blackhawks.
When we compare the Blue Jackets defensemen to the Blackhawks defensemen, we quickly realize that Columbus doesn’t actually rely on Savard and Johnson as the “shutdown” pair as much as we initially thought. In fact, it appears head coach Todd Richards just puts whatever pair he wants against whoever he wants at any given time. The top four in Chicago are much more defined. Niklas Hjalmarsson is heavily relied on as a top defenseman, and heavily plays in the defensive zone. Brent Seabrook and Duncan Keith are the very definition of a two-way defensemen. And, most telling of all, every Blackhawks defenseman tends to out-possess the opposition.
Now, let’s look at the same graph, but compare the Blue Jackets to the Predators.
Whoa! Shea Weber and Roman Josi are heavily relied on to be the Predators’ shutdown pair. And while Mattias Ekholm and Ryan Ellis were relied on as the Predators’ offensive pair, they still played against stiff competition. Anton Volchenkov and Seth Jones were very, very sheltered players, deployed against less-competitive competition in offensive situations.
So we can tell that the current Columbus Blue Jackets defensemen unit simply does not compare to the NHL’s top defensive units. Other teams are simply better at possessing the puck, and they are generally doing it while heavily relying on just four guys. And they are still dominating defensively.
It is, however, important to note that the colors represent Corsi-for percentage, and that can be heavily influenced by a players line mates. How is Seabrooks Corsi-for percentage influenced by playing with team mates like Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews and Marian Hossa?
One way we can look at how it’s influenced is comparing the Corsi-for percentages to their own team mates, called Relative Corsi-for. This can show us what players are within the top half of their own team in generating possession. Is there hope for the Columbus Blue Jackets team? Are their possession numbers potentially dragged down by poor line mates?
Without going into too much detail, the answer is yes. Johnson was in the top half of the Blue Jackets in possession. So was Connauton. Savard and Prout were in the bottom half. Tyutin was the fourth-lowest possession player on the team with at least 50 games.
Alright, so we are getting the general idea that the Blue Jackets defensemen aren’t all that outstanding. But for one final graph, let’s look at what an Ehrhoff addition would have meant for the Blue Jackets.
Yup, he could have stepped in right away and he more than likely would have made a significant difference to the team.
Now, none of this is very encouraging. How can Kekalainen help out the defense a little bit?
He’s got a couple of options. There are still a few defensemen available that could really help out the Blue Jackets. Cody Franson, a 27-year-old defenseman that saw time with the Toronto Maple Leafs and Predators last season, remains on the market. Franson is capable of playing top-four minutes for the Blue Jackets. He’s 6-foot-5, and he set a career high in points last season with 36, including 29 assists. Franson reportedly has at least one team interested in him.
#Sabres could use another veteran D. Have two sources saying they're trying to land FA Cody Franson by offering two-year deal.
— Mike Harrington (@BNHarrington) August 27, 2015
Adding 38-year-old offensive-minded Marek Zidlicky to a one-year contract wouldn’t be the worst thing for Columbus, but the key focus for the Blue Jackets should be to add a more defensive-minded defenseman. They would be reaching if they signed Zidlicky. Franson might be the best option at this point.
But we haven’t even mentioned Ryan Murray yet. The soon to be 22-year-old 2012 second overall pick played in just 12 games last season with the Blue Jackets, missing time with a knee injury and a high ankle sprain.
He’s back and healthy now, and the expectations for him are high.
"To me, getting him healthy would be the best addition any team has made this summer,” Kekalainen said. “It would make a huge difference for us."
If Murray can stay healthy and step in right away as a top-four, or even a top-two, defenseman, Columbus’ defensemen group will instantly become better. It will allow other players to be better utilized. Maybe Johnson can be used as a second-pairing defenseman that is used primarily in the offensive zone. Maybe Savard becomes more comfortable if he’s partnered with Murray. Or maybe Tyutin sees an improvement to his game when he’s paired with Murray.
Right now, the Blue Jackets defensemen group is not too strong. But another defenseman addition and a healthy Murray could make all the difference in the world for the Blue Jackets.
