Washington Capitals Metro Division Preview - New Jersey Devils
The New Jersey Devils are undoubtedly still in the midst of a rebuild, but are their days of bottom-feeding mostly behind them?
That’s not to say that the road ahead of them will be easy. No Metropolitan division doors will soon be opening for them, and finishing ahead of only the Blue Jackets may still be their status quo. Even with a few nice prospects coming and the acquisition of elite winger Taylor Hall, a Devils playoff run is probably still a year (or two) away.
Last Season
While the days of Lou Lamoriello and the trap are in the rearview, the Devils still struggled mightily on offense during 2015-2016. Their raw goals-for and Corsi-for counts ranked dead-last in the league. And this paltry production covered up a reasonably strong showing on defense. The Devils allowed the third fewest shot attempts against at 5v5, but due to their meek offensive outputs sported only a 45.9% 5v5 Corsi-for (score adjusted). And while their defense may have performed admirably at limiting shots, they were an offensive black-hole with a total of 10 even strength goals among the whole group. The Devils’ elite netminder Cory Schneider also had a bit of a stumble, dipping to a .930 5v5 sv% from his .934 the year prior. This was despite seeing a decrease in high-danger shots against from 310 to 282, and an increase in shot distance (via Corisca).
Recent New Jersey Devils offseason acquisition Taylor Hall on April 2, 2016. Mandatory Credit: Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports
All this culminated in the Devils finishing alongside Carolina in no-man’s land, 8 points over last place but 12 points out from a playoff berth. This middling performance was not without some standouts. Adam Henrique (26) and Kyle Palmieri (25) tied for the team goal scoring lead with 30, and Palmieri lead overall scoring with 57 points. Both are just entering their prime, and locked up for several years on cap-friendly deals. And despite missing half the season due to injury, veteran forward Mike Cammalleri (34) showed he still has gas left in the tank by recording 38 points in 42 games. Team-wise the Devils sported solid 19.9% and 83.0% PP and PK percentages, respectively, good for 9th and 8th in the league.
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In regards to the Devils head-to-head with the Caps, they were mostly forgettable tilts, with the boys from Washington taking wins in all 4 games, albeit two in extra time. And for some reason the Devils continue to be fodder for Alex Ovechkin highlight-reel goals.
This Offseason
The Devils offseason was dominated by the one of the most lopsided blockbuster trades in recent memory, Adam Larsson for the Oilers’ Taylor Hall. Let’s be clear: Adam Larsson will not be easy for the Devils to replace. He led the team in 5v5 ice time (16th in the league among defensemen) and sported an insane 20.7% offensive zone starts, 2nd lowest in the NHL. Coach John Hynes gave Larsson some of the toughest minutes in the league. But his -2.6% 5v5 relative corsi-for was in the red (although that’s fair given his deployment), and his 18 points is far from an elite offensive contribution. Taylor Hall on the other hand is almost certainly good for 30 goals and some of the offensive flair the Devils need. Rounding out the acquisitions were two former Pens in Ben Lovejoy and Beau Bennet.
While one might expect the Devils to be at the top of the league in prospect depth after several down years that is not the case, as Corey Pronman has them ranked 19th in the NHL. That said, promising center Pavel Zacha should be on his way, and defenseman Damon Severson (22) still has room to develop. Also, on the salary cap front GM Ray Shero has oceans of flexibility with $12.5m in cap space. Travis Zajac (31) and Andy Greene (33) have pricey deals, and Cammalleri’s contract could also be trouble. But Hall, Palmieri, Henrique and Smith-Pelly are all solid pieces with team friendly deals. Cory Schneider will also backstop the team at a reasonable $6m AAV for many years to come.
Final Thoughts
At the moment, the Devils’ outlook is not great. Best-case scenario would start with Lovejoy adequately replacing Larsson and Taylor Hall adding 35+ goals. Pavel Zacha makes the team and adds some offensive depth, while Cammalleri, Henrique and Palmieri all keep scoring and Schneider plays at his best.
If all those things happen, the Devils could be in bubble team contention. More likely is that the 12 point gap to the playoffs they saw this year is too much ground to make up. That gap could potentially even grow as teams like the Flyers and Hurricanes continue to improve.
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