At the end of the London Olympics, after what was supposed to be Michael Phelps' swimming swan song, his mother Debbie told Bob Costas that she hoped her son would return to the sport for one simple reason: she wanted to go to Rio in 2016. Michael, of course, did return, Debbie is in Rio (not to mention Michael's sisters, fiancee and son) and in two days, the greatest Olympian in history will start to add to his medal haul. How will Phelps do in his (actual) Olympic farewell? Fox Sports previews and predicts the six events Phelps will swim in Rio.
4x100 freestyle (Sunday night)
Phelps still isn't officially on this team yet - he didn't swim the 100 free at U.S. Trials so there's no telling where his sprint freestyle is at the moment - but with his coach, Bob Bowman, leading the U.S. side and reports from USA TODAY Sports suggesting that Phelps will indeed be a part of the relay, it seems like a safe bet. The problem? The U.S. has only won this race once in the last four Olympics and it took a miracle final 35 meters from Jason Lezak (and an utter collapse from Frenchman Alain Bernard) to make it happen. If Phelps swims this event that'll be six total - three individual, three relay. Truth is, he's not winning six golds and we'll find that out right off the bat. Australia will win this event and if the U.S. take silver, that'll be a moral victory.
Prediction: SILVER
200 butterfly (Tuesday night)
This is the one Phelps wants the most. The 200 fly is his baby. It was his first, and only, event at the 2000 Olympics and then, beginning at the 2001 world championships and going through two Olympics and four more world champs, he went on a seven-gold winning streak. Nobody saw it ending in London (but, then again, nobody knew how apathetic Phelps was about London). It did. South African Chad Le Clos took an early lead on Phelps and managed to hold on in the final meters for a thrilling 0.05-second win.
Le Clos, who's been talking about it ever since, actually lost his grip on the 200 at last year's world championships, when Laslo Cseh of Hungary beat him. Le Clos wanted to beat Phelps again, Phelps wanted to beat Le Clos and then all of a sudden a third party (albeit a very well-known and experienced third party) gets involved. It's the swimming equivalent of Frazier beating Ali and then, before Ali gets his rematch, Foreman beating Frazier.
If Phelps had prepared for London like he'd prepared for Beijing, he'd have won that race against Le Clos. If he had cared about London like he did Athens and Beijing, he'd have won. If he'd hit his third turn (he jammed the wall), you guessed it, he'd have won. But that heartbreak is going to be what leads him to gold in Rio. To continue with the sports metaphor, it's like the Spurs losing the Ray Allen game and then coming back to beat the Heat the next year to send LeBron back to Cleveland. The pain is necessary to fuel the next victory.
Prediction: GOLD
4x200 freestyle (Tuesday night)
With Phelps on the block, the U.S. hasn't lost this event in a major competition in 13 years. This is likely to be the biggest blowout of any race on the men's side and the easiest gold for Phelps.
Prediction: GOLD
200 individual medley (Thursday night)
While the world championships were happening last August in Russia, Phelps, who was suspended for the meet, was taking part in what was basically a JV meet in San Antonio. But, in that competition, when there were little, if any, expectations for Phelps, he actually went faster in the 100m fly, 200m fly and 200 IM than the world championship gold medalists did. It was like Phelps dominated the meet in absentia.
This would seemingly make Phelps the favorite in every race he'll swim next week. (Don't pay attention to who has the fastest times this year; every swimmer has built their training around peaking right now.) Also favoring Mr. Phelps: He's the three-time defending gold medalist in this event and he and teammate Ryan Lochte have the 11 fastest times in history.
Every sign points to a Phelps win. He's going for four straight golds in the event. Lochte is battling injury, hasn't been his best and now looks like Anderson Cooper. This should be a breeze. And that's why this feels like the event in which Michael Phelps stumbles. It's the beauty of sport: If we saw it coming, we wouldn't have to have the races. Japan's Kosuke Hagino is the future of swimming and has a decade on Phelps and Lochte. He'll be the Le Clos of the Rio Games, minus the obnoxiousness.
Prediction: SILVER
100 butterfly (Friday night)
This is it. This is the biggie. Next Friday night, 9:12 p.m. ET. Be in front of a television for what could the final individual race of Michael Phelps' career.
Nobody has ever dominated something as tenuously as Michael Phelps in the 100 butterfly. He's won it at three straight Olympics and it's the same pattern each time: Phelps falls slightly behind on the first 50, hits his turn perfectly, powers through his underwater to make up a few meters on his opponents, then brings it home to snatch victory in the final stroke.
He won by 0.04 in Athens. The margin of victory was, famously, 0.01 seconds in Beijing. And then, in a veritable blowout, he won by 0.23 seconds in London. That's three golds by a total of 0.28 seconds.
(A brief aside, if I may: Phelps will have no problem getting to the 100 fly finals, as he's never missed one in any event in his Olympic career. That being said, the two semifinals in the 100 fly are 33 and 41 minutes after the 200 IM final, respectively. Back when he was 23, Phelps could have swum semis like 10 seconds after the 200 and not had a problem. He still shouldn't have a problem at 31. Right. Right? After winning the 200 IM at trials, Phelps had the same turn-around time and finished sixth in the semis of the 100 fly, easily making it to the finals by a still-comfortable 1.21 seconds. But that was against the ninth-best American, not the ninth-best in the world. I suppose the main point is that Phelps will easily make the finals, but he's not going to be able to mess around in the semis like he did in Indianapolis.)
Phelps' challenger, again, will be Chad Le Clos. He won the 100 in Phelps' absence at last year's world championships, in a time that was faster than any of Phelps' times in a non-textile suit. (Swimming had a bathing suit boom in 2009-10 with suits that basically helped propel swimmers through the water. Times got much faster before FINA banned the suits, so a "non-textile time" refers to races in which competitors were wearing the only suits that are now legal.) Le Clos immediately started yapping about his achievement: "Michael Phelps has been talking about how slow the butterfly events have been recently. I just did a time he hasn’t done in four years. So he can keep quiet now."
Then awesomely - so awesomely that even Le Clos probably had to admit how awesome it was, but wouldn't because Le Clos doesn't roll like that - Phelps went our hours later at that San Antonio meet and beat Le Clos' time by 0.11 seconds. His time also beat his own winning time in London's 100 fly by a staggering 0.76 seconds. Phelps celebrated like someone who had clearly heard Le Clos' remarks.
I've been thinking about this race for a year. (Nobody ever claimed I was cool, y'all.) My head is telling me to pick against Phelps. He's hung on by a thread at three straight Olympics and eventually that thread has to snap. He can't keep doing this, especially now that he's 31. But my heart disagrees. Phelps lives for moments like the one he'll have next Friday. Talking trash has never worked for any of Phelps competitors before. Anyway, how can the greatest swimmer in history go out anyway but on top?
Prediction: GOLD
4x100 medley (Saturday night)
No matter what happens in the other five events, Phelps will finish Rio with a victory lap in the 4x100 medley (he'll swim the third leg - butterfly). The Americans have never lost this race in Olympic competition. Ever.
Prediction: GOLD
That would be four golds and two silver, giving Phelps 22 golds and 28 medals overall. If he does that, it'll be a staggering, towering achievement, one that adds another unbelievable chapter to the story of Michael Phelps.
The funny thing is, while finishing with four golds and two silver would add another unbelievable chapter to the story of the 31-year-old Phelps, if you went up to him before the Opening Ceremony and said "four golds and two silver, take it or leave it," Phelps wouldn't think twice. While he might be thrilled with that result down the road, he has bigger aspirations right now. He knows that 4x100m freestyle relay is probably a lost cause, but also knows every other race is winnable. The goal isn't to win four golds and two silvers - it's to do what he can in the relays and then sweep his individual events. Twenty-three golds has a nice ring to it, doesn't it?
