Why now is the time to bet on Team USA to win Olympic gold despite France loss
By now, you almost certainly know the United States men's basketball team suffered one of its more stunning losses Sunday, falling to France 83-76 in its opening game of the Tokyo Olympics despite entering as 12.5-point favorites.
Of course, the cracks in Team USA's foundation had been showing prior to the start of the Olympics. Before exhibition play began this summer, the U.S. was a -1000 favorite to bring home the gold, meaning you had to bet $100 to win just $10, plus your $100 bet back.
Then, after a less-than-inspiring run in exhibition games against teams such as Nigeria and Australia, Team USA fell to a -500 favorite last week. That meant a $50 wager would win that same $10 profit – a remarkable difference, but still a pretty heavy price.
Following Sunday's loss, however, the line on American gold has come tumbling down to -250. Now, just a $25 bet wins you that $10, while a smaller $10 wager would still earn $4.
Even if you're not overly familiar with betting and how lines work, the trend is clear. The odds, in a literal sense, are getting worse and worse that the Americans will ultimately claim gold. And that's good news for you as a bettor if you're looking to back the U.S., because as Team USA struggles, you have to risk less money to win the same amount.
In fact, that takes us to an important concept in betting: implied probability.
Each of those various lines on Team USA (-1000, -500, and -250) translates into a percentage chance that Kevin Durant & Co. will win gold. In fact, all odds – futures, moneylines or even the vigorish on a point spread – are simply another way to express the probability that an event will happen. That's called implied probability, and for a more detailed explanation, you can read here.
What does that mean for us? Well, let's go through the Team USA odds to win gold one line at a time, starting at the beginning. That original -1000 implied Team USA would win gold almost 91% of the time, or 10 out of every 11 times the scenario played out.
When that line moved to -500, those odds still implied an 83.33% chance of Team USA winning it all, even though you would only have to risk half as much to win the same amount. (Again, for a more detailed explanation on just how that math works, click here.)
Now? A line of -250 implies about a 72% chance of gold for Team USA. And that's where your opportunity comes into play.
Consider that for a second. Do you think Team USA bounces back to win gold, say, at least 75% of the time from here?
Sunday's opening-game loss complicates things, to be sure. France became the overwhelming favorite to win the group (-550, followed by the U.S. at +400), but the top two teams from each group advance to the knockout round.
So, while the United States' draw in the round would be more difficult as a non-group winner, they're far, far from out of things – especially if KD can avoid foul trouble moving forward, Damian Lillard can make Dame Time stretch across the globe and the rest of the team can find its rhythm as the players gel.
Ask yourself: If we were to play out the rest of these Olympics hundreds of times (hypothetically, we promise), could Team USA win gold three out of four times on average? Or perhaps 80% of the time? More?
If you believe so, now is the time to pounce, before Team USA gets its act together and becomes an overwhelming favorite once again. According to our friends at FOX Bet, the loss to France has caused a big spike in wagers on Les Bleus (+1000 to win gold), as well as Australia (+800 – the second-biggest favorites in the tournament, behind the U.S.), helping drive down the price on the United States.
This very well could be the "longest" odds you'll get on Team USA at these Olympics, yet that could change quickly if this weekend's upset ends up being a bump in the road. As stated above, a $10 bet right now would win you your $10 bet back, plus $4; that same $10 bet a month ago would have won you just $1. A $25 bet would win you $10, and if you're feeling even more patriotic, $100 wins you $40.
And if you instead believe Team USA's third loss in five international games is a sign of things to come? Well, a bet on France (bet $10 to collect $110 total), Australia (bet $10 to collect $90) or Spain (bet $10 to collect $100) to win gold might not be a bad way to fade the red, white and blue.
Either way, all you have to do is head over to FOX Bet.
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