National Football League

2015 fantasy football draft strategy and advice following NFL Draft

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 8:40 p.m. ET

Ryan Fowler

With the 2015 NFL Draft in the rearview mirror, it’s time for owners to start preparing and planning their 2015 fantasy football draft season strategy.

RANKINGS: Top 200 | QB | RB | WR | TE | DST | K

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To recap, seven quarterbacks, 22 running backs and 35 receivers were selected in the 2015 NFL Draft. The seven QB’s were the fewest dating back to 1967. Of the 22 running backs (which includes players tagged fullback), only eight came off the board in the first three rounds. As for the new crop of receivers – of which 14 were drafted between the first three rounds – they are now challenged with upstaging and outperforming an efficient 2014 rookie class of fantasy receivers.

Take a closer look at the rookie receiver production from a season ago (sorted by PPR-FPPG):

Rookie WR Name	Games	Total PPR Points	PPR - PPG
Odell Beckham	12	297.0	24.8
Mike Evans	15	245.1	16.3
Kelvin Benjamin	16	225.8	14.1
Martavis Bryant	10	130.1	13.0
Jordan Matthews	16	202.2	12.6
Sammy Watkins	16	198.0	12.4
Jarvis Landry	16	189.4	11.8
Allen Hurns	16	154.7	9.6
John Brown	16	147.0	9.2

Sure, we could critique and spin the above production when it comes to guys like Sammy Watkins – who didn’t have a great quarterback and played through injury – Jarvis Landry – a bubble screen machine with no games of 100+ receiving yards – or Martavis Bryant who was basically M.I.A. unless he caught the ball in the end zone. Those footnotes are all fair assessments and worthy of reading and analyzing between the lines.

However, highlighting NFL front offices’ infatuation with targeting receivers during the 2015 Draft and reminding fantasy owners how consistent rookie receivers were a season ago is just the tip of a larger iceberg when it comes to 2015 fantasy football draft strategy.

The strategy is fairly simple at first glance: stock up on running backs in the first three-to-four rounds because the receivers will be there well into the later rounds of your draft.

To further illustrate and drive home the point, take a look at the top-scoring fantasy running backs table below:

(Note: all players PPR totals divided by 17 weeks/games):

		RUSHING	RECEIVING	MISC
	Name	TD	Yds	Att	TD	Yds	Rec	2Pt	FRecTD	OFumL	PPR PTS	PPR PPG
1	Le'Veon Bell	8	1361	290	3	854	83	0	0	0	370.5	21.79
2	DeMarco Murray	13	1845	392	0	416	57	0	0	5	351.1	20.65
3	Matt Forte	6	1038	266	4	808	102	2	0	2	346.6	20.39
4	Marshawn Lynch	13	1306	280	4	367	37	0	0	2	302.3	17.78
5	Arian Foster	8	1246	260	5	327	38	0	0	2	275.5	16.21
6	Eddie Lacy	9	1139	246	4	427	42	0	0	2	272.6	16.04
7	Jamaal Charles	9	1033	206	5	291	40	0	0	3	250.4	14.73
8	Justin Forsett	8	1266	235	0	263	44	1	0	0	246.9	14.52
9	Lamar Miller	8	1099	216	1	275	38	0	0	3	223.4	13.14
10	C.J. Anderson	8	849	179	2	324	34	0	0	0	211.3	12.43
11	Jeremy Hill	9	1124	222	0	215	27	0	0	2	210.9	12.41
12	LeSean McCoy	5	1319	312	0	155	28	0	0	3	199.4	11.73
13	Joique Bell	7	860	223	1	322	34	0	0	1	198.2	11.66
14	Matt Asiata	9	570	164	1	312	44	2	0	1	194.2	11.42
15	Mark Ingram	9	964	226	0	145	29	0	0	1	191.9	11.29
16	Fred Jackson	2	525	141	1	501	66	1	0	0	188.6	11.09
17	Alfred Morris	8	1074	265	0	155	17	0	0	0	187.9	11.05
18	Giovani Bernard	5	680	168	2	349	43	0	0	0	187.9	11.05
19	Andre Ellington	3	660	201	2	395	46	0	0	2	177.5	10.44

What are we to take away from this stat table?

It’s safe to say in most fantasy football leagues, owners are required to start two running backs with the option of “flexing” out a third starting RB if they wished. So, at the very least, the top 24 fantasy running backs are needed to fill out the most-common 12-team PPR league rosters. However, only 19 running backs averaged double-digit fantasy points in PPR leagues last season. If you were one of those unlucky five owners who had a RB2 who averaged less than 10 fantasy points in PPR leagues, odds are you didn’t win your league championship.

So, draftees like Melvin Gordon (Chargers), Toddy Gurley (Rams – could start on PUP list) and Ameer Abdullah (Lions) all have some fantasy value off-the-jump when sorting through the statistical minutiae. With Ryan Mathews gone, the Chargers haven’t defined a primary running back, Rams seem eager to ride the hot hand and provide young running backs a shot at starting (see: Mason, Tre) and Joique Bell is a great finisher around the end zone, but the Lions could once again embrace a RBBC.

With hindsight always 20/20, here’s how many wide receivers averaged double-digit fantasy points in 2014:

(Note: all players PPR totals divided by 17 weeks/games):

		RECEIVING	RUSHING	MISC
	Name	TD	Yds	Rec	TD	Yds	Att	2Pt	FRecTD	OFumL	PPR FP	PPR FPPG
1	Antonio Brown	13	1698	129	0	13	4	1	0	2	382.9	22.52
2	Demaryius Thomas	11	1619	111	0	0	0	1	0	0	340.9	20.05
3	Jordy Nelson	13	1519	98	0	0	0	0	0	0	327.9	19.29
4	Dez Bryant	16	1320	88	0	0	0	0	0	0	316	18.59
5	Emmanuel Sanders	9	1404	101	0	44	8	1	0	0	301.8	17.75
6	Julio Jones	6	1593	104	0	1	1	0	0	1	297.4	17.49
7	Odell Beckham Jr.	12	1305	91	0	35	7	0	0	1	295	17.35
8	Randall Cobb	12	1287	91	0	37	11	1	0	2	293.4	17.26
9	Jeremy Maclin	10	1318	85	0	0	0	0	0	0	276.8	16.28
10	Alshon Jeffery	10	1133	85	0	33	6	0	0	0	261.6	15.39
11	Golden Tate	4	1331	99	0	30	5	0	0	0	259.1	15.24
12	T.Y. Hilton	7	1345	82	0	20	2	0	0	1	258.5	15.21
13	Mike Evans	12	1051	68	0	0	0	0	0	0	245.1	14.42
14	DeAndre Hopkins	6	1210	76	0	0	0	0	0	1	231	13.59
15	Calvin Johnson	8	1077	71	0	0	0	0	0	0	226.7	13.34
16	Kelvin Benjamin	9	1008	73	0	0	0	0	0	1	225.8	13.28
17	Julian Edelman	4	972	92	0	94	10	0	0	0	222.6	13.09
18	Anquan Boldin	5	1062	83	0	4	1	0	0	0	219.6	12.92
19	Steve Smith Sr.	6	1065	79	0	0	0	0	0	1	219.5	12.91
20	Mike Wallace	10	862	67	0	16	4	0	0	1	212.8	12.52
21	Roddy White	7	921	80	0	0	0	0	0	1	212.1	12.48
22	Brandon LaFell	7	953	74	0	13	2	0	0	1	210.6	12.39
23	DeSean Jackson	6	1169	56	0	7	4	0	0	0	209.6	12.33
24	A.J. Green	6	1041	69	0	2	2	0	0	2	205.3	12.08
25	Jordan Matthews	8	872	67	0	0	0	0	0	0	202.2	11.89
26	Eric Decker	5	962	74	0	0	0	0	0	0	200.2	11.78
27	Sammy Watkins	6	982	65	0	8	2	0	0	1	198	11.65
28	Torrey Smith	11	767	49	0	0	0	0	0	0	191.7	11.28
29	Andre Johnson	3	936	85	0	0	0	0	0	3	190.6	11.21
30	Rueben Randle	3	938	71	0	0	0	0	0	0	182.8	10.75
31	Jarvis Landry	5	758	84	0	-4	2	0	0	4	181.4	10.67
32	Mohamed Sanu	5	790	56	0	51	7	1	0	0	181.3	10.66
33	Eddie Royal	7	778	62	0	14	3	0	0	1	181.2	10.66
34	Vincent Jackson	2	1002	70	0	0	0	0	0	1	180.2	10.60
35	Brandon Marshall	8	721	61	0	0	0	0	0	1	179.1	10.54
36	Marques Colston	5	902	59	0	0	0	0	0	1	177.2	10.42
37	Keenan Allen	4	783	77	0	0	0	0	0	2	175.3	10.31
38	Kenny Stills	3	931	63	0	-2	1	0	0	0	173.9	10.23
39	Malcom Floyd	6	856	52	0	0	0	0	0	0	173.6	10.21
40	James Jones	6	666	73	0	0	0	0	0	1	173.6	10.21

Forty. Forty wide receivers averaged double-digit fantasy points last season. That’s a WR-1, WR-2 and optional WR-3/FLEX-WR plus four extra receivers of position pool depth. Patience may be considered a virtue, but when it comes to your fantasy football drafts, patience when drafting a receiving corps should be a necessity.

Most owners – present company included – made the lazy/popular pick of Calvin Johnson in the first round as if his 20-fantasy-points-per-game production was predetermined. Megatron averaged the equivalent of 13.34 FPPG (17 weeks/games), while James Jones averaged 10.31 or three receptions / 30 yards difference.

So, for the sake of a May fantasy football argument, let’s toss out a possible draft focus:

Round	Position Focus
1	RB/Gronk
2	RB/Gronk/Graham
3	RB
4	RB/WR
5	RB/QB/WR
6	WR/QB/WR
7	QB/WR/TE
8	QB/WR/TE
9	WR/RB/QB
10	WR/RB
11	RB/WR
12	WR/RB/TE
13	RB/WR/TE
14	DST/K
15	K/DST

Rob Gronkowski is so heads-and-shoulders dominant at the shallow tight end position that, when healthy, he’s my RB-focused draft strategy exception not the rule. Jimmy Graham’s zip code change to Seattle is a large enough variable to force me to pump the breaks on a first-round endorsement considering my rekindled focus on running back depth or lack thereof, but don’t mix the message – Graham and Gronk will once again compete for fantasy TE supremacy.

As if you needed another reason to focus on running backs in the early rounds, of the Top 12 scoring fantasy quarterbacks, more than half possessed an average draft position AFTER the 5th Round (standard leagues).

Be patient and be rewarded come late-December.

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