2016 Fantasy Baseball Draft Prep: Blind Resumes (OF)
It's a mixed bag of production when determining who to draft for your fantasy baseball outfield. Some players are speedsters, some crush the ball, and some even contribute to multiple categories.
So, for this edition of Blind Resumes, I'll try to compare players with similar talents.
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Three-year stats (2013-2015)
Player A led his fellow outfielders with 111 total home runs over the last three seasons. Only Chris Davis (126 HR) was better. His opponent hit a career-best 38 homers in 2015. Player B only surpassed 90 RBI once in his lifetime (102 RBI in 2015). Player A has tallied at least 90 RBI in three of the past four years. This comparison is to caution owners not to spend high on players who just achieved career-high totals the prior season. Instead, rely on consistency of the player with great ceiling and high floor.
Player A is Nelson Cruz and Player B is J.D. Martinez.
Three-year stats (2013-2015)
I think people will be surprised about this showdown. Player D has gone as high as fifth overall in some fantasy drafts. Yet, Player C is being selected as the 20th outfielder off the board. They are both around the same age. The only difference that I didn't show in the table is that Player D averages 11 more stolen bases. The batting average isn't negligible enough to constitute three-to-four-round discrepancy.
Player C is Adam Jones and Player D is Andrew McCutchen.
Three-year stats (2013-2015)
Player E led all outfielders with his 112 total stolen bases since 2013. Only Jose Altuve (129 SB) swiped more bags during that time. However, Player E's season-by-season stolen base prowess has dropped in the past three seasons: 52, 39, and 21. Player F has produced back-to-back 28 SB seasons. Also, from 2013-2015, both players topped off at 16 homers in a season. While Player F's batting average is slightly better, he crushed Player E in the past two seasons. Player F had a .304 AVG compared to Player E's .265 AVG. If you're looking for batting average, I'd probably recommend Player F. If you want stolen bases at a discount, take Player E.
Player E is Jacoby Ellsbury. Player F is Lorenzo Cain.
Three-year stats (2013-2015)
In 2015, the league produced a .150 ISO on average. That season, outfielders averaged .158 ISO. Player H is just below the league average ISO. As for his batting average, Player H has a .273 AVG since 2012, while Player G's is a .251 AVG. Player H also tallied at least 20 stolen bases in three of the past four seasons. Player G hasn't notched more than five SB in a season. So, are you more willing to spend a sixth-round pick on an outfielder with a decent batting average and around 20 stolen bags (16 outfielders stole at least 20 bases in 2015) as your second, or third, fantasy OF spot? Or, you could wait into the 15th-round and get an outfielder who can give you around 23 homers (17 OFs hit at least 23 HR in 2015) and 75 RBI in a single campaign.
Player G is Mark Trumbo, now with Baltimore, and Player H is Jason Heyward, with the Cubs.
Three-year averages
Another stat where the outfielders out-performed the average ball player was slugging percentage. Last year, .405 SLG was the MLB average and outfielders combined for a .418 SLG. Removing the 2015 season from Player I (injured), his 2012-2014 stats are provided in the above table. He greatly out-performs Player J in the power categories. The only stat Player J won in this matchup was stolen bases (50-14). Paying up for one category isn't worth it. Don't do it for relief pitchers (saves) and don't do it for offense (stolen bases).
Player I is Matt Holliday and Player J is Dexter Fowler.
For more Blind Resumes click on the links below:
Starting Pitcher Blind Resumes
