2016 Fantasy Baseball Draft Prep: Blind Resumes (SP)
Compare players, only looking at their stats, and try to make a decision without knowing the player's name. This is fantasy baseball Blind Resumes: Starting pitcher's edition.
Editor's note: All the stats in the tables below are three-year averages (2013-2015) unless mentioned otherwise
Looking at the low ERA and high strikeout rate, you can tell that these two pitchers are studs. Player A wins in all categories, but the real surprise is where both pitchers are being drafted this season. According to the NFBC, Player A has a 40.44 ADP while Player B has to wait until 124.29. That makes Player A the 12th pitcher selected and B the 33rd SP off of the board. Dissecting the ERA rankings, only seven pitchers are between A and B. They are also back-to-back in the K/9 listing.
Player A is Corey Kluber and Player B is Francisco Liriano.
Last season was a career-year for Player D. His numbers are superior in three of the four categories, but lost in the strikeout rate statistic. In 2015, Player D's stats improved from a 2.93 ERA to a 2.48 ERA. The strikeout total skyrocketed. In 2014, Player D collected 146 Ks and boosted that number to 216 in 2015. Player D's ADP is 46.03 (14th pitcher selected) and Player C is drafted 48 spots later (94.94 ADP, 25th pitcher). Player C was 28 spots higher than Player D in the K/9 ranking.
Is the one terrific season enough to make a player the fourth-round pick the following year?
Player C was in a similar situation last year. In 2014, he had a career-best 2.81 ERA in 31 starts. The next year, it ballooned to a 3.26 ERA on just one more recorded out between 2014 to 2015 innings pitched total (195.2 IP in 2014, 196 IP in 2015).
Player C is Tyson Ross of the Padres and Player D is Dallas Keuchel from the Astros.
In this matchup, Players E and F are very similar in the innings pitched and K/9 race. However, Player F earns the slight edge when ERA and WHIP are taken into consideration. A total of 23 pitchers separate the two in the WHIP rankings and 10 pitchers are sandwiched between the two in the ERA pecking order. Yet, when the ADP is considered, Player F is the 16th pitcher chosen (49.11 ADP) and Player E fell to the 53rd pitcher drafted (195.49 ADP).
Player E is Gio Gonzalez and Player F is Chris Archer.
This comparison is a little different. Player G is a two-year average and Player H is three years. Sure, Player G is clearly the better option if you look solely at ERA, but the other three categories are reasonably close. Especially, when you consider that Player H has an extra year of consistency. In the ADP realm, Player G is the 20th pitcher taken (68.23 ADP) and Player H is the 45th SP (168.5 ADP). Though the ERA stat is important, I wouldn't place a 100-player gap on a 0.49 ERA, 0.11 WHIP and 12 innings of work.
Player G is Sonny Gray and Player H is Jose Quintana.
This matchup has a curveball, as well. Player I is a normal, three-year average (2013-2015). However, Player J is a three-year average between 2012-2013, 2015. Player I is better in three of the four categories, but is being drafted 74 spots later than Player J.
Player I is Mike Leake from the Cardinals and Player J is Patrick Corbin of Arizona.
This is where the blind resume shines. People tend to remember the All-Star season Corbin produced in 2013 (14 wins, 3.41 ERA) and continue to hold him to those expectations. Leake has won at least 11 games in three-consecutive seasons and has pitched at least 192 innings in each campaign. All while keeping his ERA around 3.70.
Before your fantasy draft, take some time to look over the rankings in each stat and scroll down the list of names. You might be surprised on who jumps off the screen. Though the names won't be as flashy as the well-known players, you can still find value in consistency. In the end, the name of the player doesn't win fantasy championships, just the stats they produce.
Also Read: Blind Resumes Third Basemen
