2016 Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy: Breakout candidates include Taijuan, Bogaerts
Last year's breakout players included Manny Machado and A.J. Pollock, who leapt to fantasy stardom. The list also included players like Matt Duffy and Kevin Pillar, who weren't on the radar for most before the season, but became productive, solid fantasy players.
There are certainly players in each camp heading into 2016, and we'll look at some of both here.
Xander Bogaerts, SS, Red Sox - Teammate Mookie Betts is getting more fantasy love right now, but Bogaerts is emerging as a difference maker in his own right. His home-run total dropped to seven last year from 12 in 2014, but he batted .320, his OPS jumped to .776 (plus-116 over 2014), and he stole 10 bases. As the cliché goes, everyone doesn't have the immediate success of Mike Trout, and the 23-year-old Bogaerts appears on steady path to fantasy stardom.
Bogaerts' BA is due for a BABIP-related decline, but a .300 season with 15-20 homers and strong runs/RBI totals is in play. In Round 5 - which is where he's going in early NFBC drafts - Bogaerts looks like a good value.
Anthony DeSclafani, SP, Reds - DeSclafani was 9-13 with a 4.05 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP in his first full season, but there were signs of more to come. The 25-year-old whiffed nearly a batter per inning in the second half of the season, while his control improved and his ground ball rate ticked up a bit. DeSclafani isn't an ace by any means, but he's clearly rosterable in mixed leagues.
Ken Giles, RP, Astros - Giles was a lockdown reliever in both 2014 and 2015, posting a 1.56 ERA with 151 strikeouts in 115 2/3 innings over those seasons, and saving 15 games for the Phillies after Jonathan Papelbon got traded to Washington. But for the first time, Giles is teed up to be a prime closer option on draft day. There certainly aren't 10 closers I'd rather have, and there might not even be five. Forty-plus saves are likely.
Yasmani Grandal, C, Dodgers - Grandal batted .282 with 14 home runs and a .927 OPS over the first half of 2015, but took a nosedive during the second half (.162 BA, two homers, .498 OPS). A left shoulder injury appears to have been the culprit for Grandal's struggles, and he had surgery to repair it in October. Sure, it sounds too easy to double his first-half stats as a 2016 projection, but even if he gets close ...
Raisel Iglesias, SP, Reds - I hope you're impressed with me being the 1,074th fantasy analyst to include Iglesias on a 2016 breakout list. His 4.15 ERA wasn't too impressive last season, but his 104/28 K/BB ratio (in 95 1/3 innings) was excellent, and he had one dominant, late-season spurt that featured three consecutive double-digit strikeout games. Iglesias might have his innings capped - Red Reporter suggests 25-28 starts this season - but he still looks to be a solid SP3 in mixed leagues.
Gregory Polanco, OF, Pirates - Polanco had ups and downs in his first full big-league season, finishing with a .256 BA, nine homers, 27 stolen bases and a .701 OPS. However, he was better in the second half (.276 BA, six HR, .747 OPS), and even though his walk rate dipped, he hit more line drives and fly balls, and according to FanGraphs, his percentage of hardhit balls increased from 27.7 percent to an above-average 32.1 percent.
Early 2016 projections have Polanco in the 12-homer, 30-steal range with a BA in the neighborhood of .260-270. If he gets to 15 homers with a BA on the high side, you'll have an OF2 on your hands. I suspect I'll own Polanco in at least a few leagues.
Corey Seager, SS, Dodgers - We had to include one rookie, right? Seager is regarded as a can't-miss prospect, and when he got the call for the Dodgers in September, he delivered with four home runs and a .986 OPS in 113 plate appearances. He'll probably hit 15-20 homers with a solid BA, but he's already going ahead of Bogaerts in the fifth round of NFBC drafts. Breakouts don't always come cheap, you know.
George Springer, OF, Astros - Speaking of breakouts not coming cheap ... Springer's emergence would have been complete last season if he hadn't broken his wrist in July and missed two months. Before the injury, Springer was batting .264 with 13 homers, 14 steals and a .936 OPS in 75 games. Springer's K rate improved in 2015, and that corresponded to a strong .276 BA - which is a category that previously looked like an Achilles heel for him. A 30-30 season is a reasonable possibility for Springer, and would make him worth every penny of his second-round ADP.
Yordano Ventura, SP, Royals - On July 22, the Royals sent Ventura and his 5.19 ERA to the minors, but recalled him almost immediately due to an injury to teammate Jason Vargas. After a couple more shaky starts, the fireballer posted a 2.38 ERA in his final 11 outings, with 81 strikeouts against 28 walks in 58 innings. If Ventura can keep missing bats, he can be a top-30 fantasy starter.
Taijuan Walker, SP, Mariners - Walker's first full season included a strong strikeout-to-walk ratio (157/40) accompanied by too many fly balls and home runs, and an ugly 4.56 ERA. However, it might have been just a slow start. Check out these splits:
That second line is impressive, right? If Walker can keep the homers in check, he'll be a steal as an SP4. Buy, buy, buy.
