2016 Milwaukee Brewers Preview, Fantasy Baseball Draft Prep
After commenting in late-January that he was behind schedule following back surgery and wouldn’t be 100 percent at start of camp, Ryan Braun said he has no restrictions to start camp. Go figure. Braun’s assumed power production aside, the Brewers offense lost the following OPS leaders in Gerardo Parra (2015 trade), Khris Davis, Adam Lind, Jason Rogers, Carlos Gomez (2015 trade), Aramis Ramirez (2015 trade).
The offense ranked 22nd in runs scored and 24th in staff ERA last season. It's going to get uglier in 2016.
ALSO SEE: TEAM PREVIEWS ARCHIVE
In case you missed my National League Did You Know fantasy baseball notes on the Brewers, here ya go:
- Chris Carter’s 2013, 2014 and 2015 strikeout rates – all above 31 percent – all rank inside the top 10 highest during the three-year stretch. He’s averaged 30 HR during the same stretch.
- Brewers in rebuild, youth movement mode should force owners to pay attention to shortstop following Jean Segura-to-Diamondbacks trade. Jonathan Villar and prospect Orlando Arcia share similar talents in terms of stolen base potential, but Villar strikes out more than 20 percent of the time. This could lead to seeing Arcia sooner rather than later.
- Khris Davis hit 21 homers after the 2015 break, but only managed a .249 BA and .317 OBP (Traded to A’s – February 2016)
- Jonathan Lucroy may get traded, he may not, but remember when healthy, he’s a top catcher option:
Key Additions: Chris Carter, Aaron Hill, Jonathan Villar, Rymer Liriano
Key Losses: Khris Davis, Jean Segura, Francisco Rodriguez, Adam Lind
Projected Lineup
1. Scooter Gennett
2. Jonathan Lucroy
3. Ryan Braun
4. Chris Carter
5. Aaron Hill
6. Domingo Santana
7. Jonathan Villar
8. Kirk Nieuwenhuis
Gennett has hit just .124 vs. LHP over the past three seasons (113 AB) … not much pop and hasn’t been a SB threat since joining the Brewers … see Lucroy’s stats in the DYK section above … BABIP is typically used to measure how lucky or unlucky a player has been, but in Lucroy’s case unfortunate and random injuries – including his wife dropping a suitcase on his hand - has forced him off the field a few times … don’t pay for Braun’s SB potential … coming off back surgery and now 32 years old, Braun’s 24 SB in 2015 were third-most in his major and minor league career dating back to 2006 … Chris Carter is your classic grip and ripper as the notes on him above support … the 34-year-old Hill, part of the Jean Segura-to-Diamondbacks trade, averaged 29 HR per season 2009-10, 2012 … has hit 27 homers total over past three seasons … one-time prospect Will Middlebrooks could even put pressure on him for starting 3B gig … Santana is another former Astros’ prospect with a history of power … he averaged 21 HR per season 2012-14 (High-A-Triple-A) … Villar will be a late-round middle infielder option if you’re looking for a bargain on stolen base production …
Projected Rotation
1. Jimmy Nelson
2. Wily Peralta
3. Matt Garza
4. Taylor Jungmann
5. Chase Anderson
Nelson’s projected 7.50 K/9 rate would be a late-round draft target trade off if he posts the expected ERA hovering around 4.00 with few shots at wins as the Brew Crew rebuild … Peralta won 17 games two years ago … he won’t be drafted … Garza won’t be drafted … Jungmann is interesting and at his best could post similar fantasy 5x4 (I removed wins) stats to Nelson … he posted a 8.96 K/9 rate in the second half of 2015, but carried a 4.19 xFIP … when looking at Anderson’s fantasy stat history, there is a chance Nelson, Jungmann and Anderson could also post eerily similar stats in 2016 … in all three cases the K/9 rate is their leading case for ownership
Top Prospects
Orlando Arcia, SS/2B – only 21 years old, he’ll start the season in the minors … decent pop for a guy who weighs 165 pounds … averaged 23 stolen bases per minor league season last three campaigns … could replace a struggling Scooter or Villar in 2016 … here’s more on the organizations top prospect
Brett Phillips, OF – hit 16 homers with 17 SB between High-A and Double-A last season (120 games) … just keep in mind his BABIP was through the roof, nearly .400 when his career average is .315 … the 21-year-old outfielder is definitely somebody to keep an eye on during a rebuilding season
ALSO SEE: TEAM PREVIEWS ARCHIVE
