50 Shades of Fantasy Football, Vol. V: The knee-jerk reaction
You’ve just been dealt a crushing fantasy football defeat. You know what that means: Time to panic! Except, no. Please don’t.
Week 1 is in officially in the books! Which means the fantasy talk around the water cooler is as predictable as death and taxes. Why did I play that guy? He’s so overrated! Who wants a trade? I gotta make a move!
Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the “Knee-Jerk Reaction” week. Irrational conclusions based on one small subset of data. Just one snapshot out of 16 games.
Panic sets in for all fantasy owners during “Knee jerk Reaction week.” If a player performed well, he’s set for the season. If an early-round draft pick bombed out, trade talks are initiated immediately. It’s the nature of a fantasy football owner to overreact, and this leads to some great opportunities to buy low or sell high.
This week’s 50 Shades of Fantasy Football takes a look at those players who had a Week 1 performance that will not be indicative their season long production. Whether they’re the players that performed great in but are destined to regress backwards in upcoming weeks, or those disappointments who have every chance of erupting in Week 2 — and beyond. No matter last weekend’s results, we encourage you to stay the fantasy football course! Continue to believe in your team and keep a level head.
We’ll start with the Buy Low candidates, followed by the Sell High high guys.
Onward!
Sep 11, 2016; Jacksonville, FL, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Allen Robinson (15) has the ball deflected by Green Bay Packers cornerback Damarious Randall (23) during the second half of a football game at EverBank Field.The Green Bay Packers won 27-23. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports
Fantasy Football Buy Low Candidates
Prediction: Allen Robinson will bounce back in Week 2 at San Diego. He is a lock for double-digit fantasy points, and will still be a top eight wide receiver at season’s end.
Sep 11, 2016; New Orleans, LA, USA; New Orleans Saints tight end Coby Fleener (82) catches the ball prior to the game against the Oakland Raiders at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports
6) New Orleans Saints tight end Coby Fleener disappointed fantasy owners with just one catch on four targets for six total yards in a 35-34 loss to the Oakland Raiders.
7) In 2015, Oakland allowed the third most fantasy points per game (10.2) to opposing tight ends. Therefore, it was expected that Fleener would have a productive fantasy game. However, during the last five games of last season, the Raiders only allowed 6.1 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends. This represents over a 40 percent decrease in production compared to the overall season.
8) Over the past five seasons, the tight end position for the New Orleans Saints has averaged: 132 targets, 85.8 receptions, 1,044 receiving yards, and 11 touchdowns per season. These averages were produced by Jimmy Graham (now with Seattle) and Benjamin Watson (now with Baltimore).
9) When Jimmy Graham has not played for New Orleans his career per averages have been: 6.6 targets, 4.4 receptions, 55 yards, and 0.18 touchdowns per season.
10) When Benjamin Watson has not played for New Orleans, his career averages have been: 4.1 targets, 2.7 receptions, 32.5 yards, and 0.24 touchdowns per season.
11) When Fleener has not played for New Orleans, his career averages have been: 5.2 targets, 3.05 receptions, 35.9 yards, and 0.28 touchdowns per season.
12) Fleener was on the field for 56 of the Saints 59 offensive snaps. This week, he faces a New York Giants defense that allowed nine receptions on 14 targets and 66 yards to 34-year-old Dallas Cowboys tight end Jason Witten in Week One.
Prediction: Coby Fleener will bounce back in a big way against the Giants. He will have double digit fantasy points and continue to prove that the tight end position in New Orleans provides exceptional production.
Sep 11, 2016; Glendale, AZ, USA; Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Michael Floyd (15) warms up prior to the game against the New England Patriots at University of Phoenix Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports
13) Through the first five games of 2015, Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Michael Floyd had a total of eight catches for 104 yards.
14) Patriots star cornerback Malcolm Butler guarded Michael Floyd one on one throughout the entire game on Sunday. He ended with three catches for 61 yards.
15) Over his career, when fellow wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald has 80 yards or more receiving at home, Floyd averages 6.75 points in PPR scoring. When Fitzgerald has less than 80 yards receiving at home, Floyd averages 11.4 points in PPR scoring. In Week One, Fitzgerald notched 81 receiving yards.
16) Floyd had over 100 yards receiving in five of his last eight games last season. That includes a seven catch, 113 yards, and two touchdown performance at Seattle in November.
17) From Week 9 on, Floyd averaged eight targets per game. Prior to Week 9, he averaged 4.5 targets per game.
18) From Week 9 on, Fitzgerald averaged 7.4 fantasy points in PPR leagues. Prior to Week 9, he averaged 14.1 fantasy points in PPR leagues.
Prediction: Michael Floyd will start to return to his end of season form at home versus Tampa Bay. As the season progresses, the 33-year-old Fitzgerald will again see decreased production. Floyd, playing in a contract year, will finish strong and be a valuable fantasy playoff asset.
Dec 6, 2015; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Browns tight end Gary Barnidge (82) makes an 11-yard reception during the third quarter against the Cincinnati Bengals at FirstEnergy Stadium. The Bengals defeated the Browns 37-3. Mandatory Credit: Scott R. Galvin-USA TODAY Sports
19) Cleveland Browns tight end Gary Barnidge had zero catches for zero yards on zero targets in Sunday’s 29-10 loss to Philadelphia.
20) In the first game of last season, Barnidge had three receptions on four targets for 38 yards. In the second game, Barnidge had one reception on one target for 17 yards.
21) In 2015, Barnidge was the second best fantasy tight end finishing with 158 points in standard scoring leagues. Barnidge had 79 receptions on 124 targets for 1,043 yards and nine touchdowns.
22) In the eight games last year that quarterback Josh McCown did not play, Barnidge averaged: 4.1 receptions, 50.2 yards, and 0.38 touchdowns per game.
23) In the eight games last year that quarterback McCown did play, Barnidge averaged: 5.8 receptions, 80.2 yards, 0.8 touchdowns per game.
24) If you project Barnidge’s stats out for a full season, he would have finished with 92 receptions for 1,282 yards and 12 touchdowns. That equates to 200 fantasy points in standard scoring leagues, which would’ve ranked him first among all tight ends — 17 points higher than New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski.
25) Starting Browns quarterback Robert Griffin III was placed on the injured reserve with a fractured bone in his left shoulder. Josh McCown has been named the Browns starter for Sunday’s home opener against Baltimore.
Prediction: Gary Barnidge will calm the nerves of impatient fantasy owners at home against Baltimore. With McCown under center, expect something on the order of last season’s six-reception, 80-yard average.
Next: Sell High Fantasy Football Candidates
Sep 11, 2016; Nashville, TN, USA; Tennessee Titans running back DeMarco Murray (29) leaps over Minnesota Vikings cornerback Terence Newman (23) for a touchdown during the first half at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
Fantasy Football Sell High Candidates
26) In DeMarco Murray’s first five seasons in the NFL, he averaged 43 receptions per year with a total of two receiving touchdowns.
27) In Sunday’s 25-16 loss to Minnesota, Murray had five catches and two receiving touchdowns.
28) Murray received seven targets in Sunday’s game, more than wide receivers Rishard Mathews and Harry Douglas, and equal to wide receiver Andre Johnson’s targets. It was only four fewer targets than rookie wide receiver Tajae Sharpe, who led the team with 11.
29) Murray ran the ball 13 times for 42 yards. That equates to 3.2 yards per carry. Rookie running back Derrick Henry rand the ball five times for three yards, or 0. 6 yards per carry.
30) Henry finished with 41 total receiving yards on five fewer targets than Murray, who finished with a total of 35 receiving yards.
31) The Titans travel to Detroit to face the Lions in their home opener. In Week One, Detroit held the Colts to 16 total first-half rushing yards. In a game where the Colts scored 35 points, lead running back Frank Gore had 19 total receiving yards.
Prediction: DeMarco Murray will underperform in Week 2 at Detroit. He will be held without a touchdown and rush for under 50 yards. As the season progresses, Derrick Henry will create an eventual 50-50 carry split.
Sep 12, 2016; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers running back Carlos Hyde (28) celebrates after he scores a touchdown against the Los Angeles Rams in the fourth quarter at Levi
32) San Francisco running back Carlos Hyde rushed 23 times for 88 yards and two touchdowns in a 28-0 win over the Los Angeles Rams.
33) Hyde, who was touted as a “true three down running back,” received three targets and caught two passes for a total of five yards.
34) Fellow running back Shaun Draughn received the majority of the third down and two minute drill snaps. Hyde received 57 total snaps, while Draughn received 21.
35) Draughn still rushed seven times and scored on a design running play inside the five-yard line.
36) According to Cantor Technology, the 49ers are not projected to be favored in any games for the rest of the NFL season.
37) When a team is losing, they are forced to pass more. This will lead to more snaps for Shaun Draughn and fewer snaps for Carlos Hyde.
Prediction: Carlos Hyde owners may have just experienced his best fantasy game of the season. As the 49ers progress through a difficult season, they will be in situations that dictate more passing plays. As such, Shaun Draughn’s productivity will increase, while Hyde’s decreases.
Next: Feast or Famine Jackson?
Sep 12, 2016; Landover, MD, USA; Washington Redskins wide receiver DeSean Jackson (11) makes a reception in front of Pittsburgh Steelers free safety Mike Mitchell (23) during the first half at FedEx Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
38) Over the past four season, Washington Redskins wide receiver DeSean Jackson has averaged 4.1 receptions, 73.1 receiving yards, and 0.4 touchdowns per game over 51 contests.
39) Over that time, Jackson has played in six Monday Night Football games. In those games he’s averaged: 5.4 receptions, 115.4 receiving yards, and 0.8 touchdowns per. This spans five games.
40) Therefore, with just one more reception per game, Jackson is averaging 62 more receiving yards and more than double the number of touchdowns per game.
41) In Monday night’s 38-16 loss to Pittsburgh, Jackson had six catches for 102 yards.
42) Over the last three seasons, Jackson has a combined Volatility Score of 27.3, or an average of 9.1 per season. This measures the level of week-to-week fantasy point scoring variance. Players with numbers higher than 8.0 have significant weekly output oscillation. Among top twenty wide receivers over that time period, Jackson rates as the fifth most volatile wide receiver in the league. (PlayerProfiler.com)
43) In 2016, Jackson’s Snap Share was 62.4 percent which ranked 117th among wide receivers. He also only received four Red Zone targets and had just one Red Zone reception. (Player Profiler.com)
Prediction: DeSean Jackson continues his pattern of volatile fantasy weeks and struggles in a Week 2 intradivisional game against Dallas. Jackson finishes with less than six fantasy points, on route to roller coaster season for fantasy owners.
Next: Ware-ing thin?
Aug 27, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Kansas City Chiefs running back Spencer Ware (32) celebrates after his team scored against the Chicago Bears during the first half of the preseason game at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports
44) Kansas City Chiefs running back Spencer Ware finished with 25 fantasy points in standard scoring leagues in a 33-27 overtime victory against San Diego.
45) Ware had 11 rushes for 70 yards and one touchdown. He also had seven receptions on eight targets for 129 receiving yards. The next productive running back for Kansas City was Charcandrick West who had three rushes for -1 yards.
46) Ware played 34 total snaps in the game. Surprisingly, West also played 34 snaps in the game.
47) Prior to this game, Ware’s career averages were: 7.5 rushing attempts, 41.3 rushing yards, 0.6 receptions, and 0.5 receiving yards.
48) Jamaal Charles is scheduled to return to the Kansas City Chiefs team during the next few weeks after recovering from ACL surgery. Charles is the career leader in NFL history with 5.5 yards per carry. This places Charles ahead of Hall of Famer Jim Brown (5.2 YPC).
49) Kansas City’s next opponent, the Houston Texans, allowed the third fewest amount of yards in the NFL last season (4,963 total yards allowed).
50) When Charles returns, the expectation is that all three running backs will play a part in each game.
Prediction: Spencer Ware owners should sell now. When Charles returns, all three running backs will have decreased fantasy value. Ware’s Week 1 production will be the best all around game any Chiefs running back has in 2016.
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