Marcell Dareus

All-Purpose Playbook: NFL Week 1 survivor pool analysis, daily fantasy and more

Published Sep. 11, 2015 2:30 p.m. ET

Brett Smiley

Welcome to the All-Purpose Playbook, a Buzzer column that is (1) either a guide to many things NFL related or (2) a road map to hell. Check back here on Friday afternoons for more survivor pool analysis, football picks, a smattering of GIFs and occasional nonsense. Follow me @brettsmiley and you can e-mail me with any questions or comments at basmiley [at] gmail [dot] com.

The first and final weeks of survival pools are the scariest. In the end days, people will talk themselves into the Detroit Lions on the road against an above-.500 team, figuring Matthew Stafford won't force the ball into double coverage or finally overcome a 0-17 road record against teams that finish with winning records.

In the beginning, the uncertainty of a new season — with new personnel everywhere, new playbooks and undeveloped chemistry — creates precarious picking.

If you tapped the Patriots for "The Rob Gronkowski Show" (also the title of a VH1 reality show debuting in 2023 in which Rob and his brothers cruise around Los Angeles on hoverboards "doing stuff") over the Steelers on Thursday night, and will live a sweat-free Sunday, good for you. (And if you haven't signed up, there's still time to play. Click here to play FOX Football Survivor.)

Because the remainder of the NFL Week 1 slate is pretty darn scary. We'll review some of the most popular options in FOX Sports and Yahoo! survival pools, as well as some important rules, but before we go there let's celebrate that we're here!

I don't know about you but I haven't been able to sleep soundly the past few nights. Partly because the wall unit air conditioner in my bedroom gets angry around 4 a.m. that I set it to 60 degrees and starts coughing like a chain smoker, but mainly because the final two months of waiting for the NFL season to start again are the longest. At least we had some good theater recently.

Now let's review some rules that we established at the start of last season:

• Rule No. 1: Just survive and advance (and really, the only rule).

• Rule No. 2 (aka the Meryl Streep Principle): Whenever possible, take a proven, consistent, veteran-led home team against an inferior opponent.

• Rule No. 3: Avoid road teams until you have no better choices.

• Rule No. 4: Avoid divisional opponent games. They know each other well and like each other less.

• Rule No. 5: Don't "save" a top team for later in the season. That's like going to a knife fight with a knife and a gun and saving the gun because you first want to try to stab a guy with a dull blade. (A caveat is if you're in a very large pool that requires greater risk-taking or hedging with multiple entries.) At the very least, take a trident.

This is the leading choice on FOX Sports (23% of poolsters have chosen Green Bay) and on Yahoo! (22.5%). It’s difficult to mount a strong case against the Packers here, however taking them violates Rules No. 3 and 4 from above.

Now under John Fox and new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, who has flipped the team into a 3-4 defense, there’s a number of new starters including second-round rookie Eddie Goldman starting at the all-important nose tackle spot.

Goldman will face one of the best offensive lines in the league with an excellent interior that includes Josh Sitton and T.J. Lang at the guard positions. The Chicago Tribune headlined a story this week, “Bears rookie Eddie Goldman ready for baptism of fire.” Well, that sounds pretty terrifying.

Back to the most important position on the field: Rodgers is 11-3 career against the Bears with 31 touchdowns against just 8 interceptions and a 109.8 QB rating. Meanwhile, Cutler is 1-10 against the Packers with 14 scores and 21 interceptions with a 67.1 rating.

So this a long way of saying, I think you’ll be OK here. How’s that for commitment? You wouldn’t feel comfortable hearing that from a doctor before going under for surgery. Let’s try again: You’re probably not gonna die. Crap, that’s not better. Anyhow.

Just don’t think that the Bears cannot win or make this a contest. It’s never that easy in the NFL. Incidentally, Soldier Field was the site of a major Week 1 survivor slaying last season when the Bears were seven-point favorites (same line this week) over the visiting Buffalo Bills, who gutted the home team for 193 yards rushing on 33 carries in a 23-20 overtime win. Maybe that’s another reason to take the Packers in Chicago, where fans have had to shell out a league-leading $663.57 to see the Bears win at home in recent years. That money could, instead, buy a pretty nice double-reclining loveseat for each fan and a friend to watch from all season at home, splitting 24-packs and weeping silently until Monday comes.

2. CAROLINA PANTHERS (-3) AT JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

The Panthers are the second-most popular pick on both FOX (15%) and Yahoo! (16.7%). This may backfire on me but I submit that Panthers backers are stepping on or near a land mine. In case you’ve forgotten, Carolina bottomed out to 3-8-1 last season before winning their final four games against the dregs of the league to make the playoffs at 7-8-1. Since then, Cam Newton lost his best offensive weapon when Kelvin Benjamin tore his ACL in August. Carolina will be starting the sort-of-shaky Michael Oher at left tackle while their best lineman, center Ryan Kalil, is nursing a sprained knee (fortunately he won’t have to face Sen’Derrick Marks, who is still recovering from his own knee injury). The Panthers defense remains pretty strong but this game has more red flags than a Manchester United match. The Jaguars will need QB Blake Bortles to take a step up but they have some young offensive talent (even without newly-acquired, injured tight end Julius Thomas) and an improving defense. You’ve been warned.

3. MIAMI DOLPHINS (-3.5) AT WASHINGTON SNYDERS

Another road team (11% on FOX, 15.5% on Yahoo!). OK. As evidenced by this recent Washington QB Misery Matrix, I am engaged in full-blown anti-Washington mode. It’s not that I personally dislike the organization (that’s a lie, I do), it’s just that they just have a 16-year track record of drama, idiocy and confusion. Among all the popular road teams this week, besides the Packers, I think Miami is the most promising. QB Ryan Tannehill is poised to continue his ascent with a nice group of wideouts this season (Jarvis Landry, Greg Jennings, Kenny Stills and rookie DeVante Parker). Meanwhile the Fins made a huge splash by signing Ndamukong Suh, who together with ends Cameron Wake and Vernon Olivier may cause some offensive linemen to reconsider their profession. Washington QB Kirk Cousins will be under siege and won’t have enough time to air it out to DeSean Jackson or Pierre Garcon. Reiterating that it’s sub-optimal to take road teams this early in survivor pools, give me the Dolphins here.

4. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-2.5) AT BUFFALO BILLS

ANOTHER ROAD TEAM. What are you doing to me, people?! I should just throw the “rules” into the trash. From a non-survivor, non-fantasy perspective, this will be a really fascinating game between what should be one of the league’s top offenses (Colts, of course) this season against one of the league’s best defenses (that will be missing top tackle Marcell Dareus on a one-week suspension). But the Bills start a scary front seven and a defense that ranked tops in the league against the pass last season, per Football Outsiders. On the other side of the ball, it’s just not clear yet what the Bills can muster with QB Tyrod Taylor, who will be making his first career start on Sunday, and LeSean McCoy, who said he’s not 100% right now. I would absolutely avoid this game in survivor pools.

5. CINCINNATI BENGALS (-3) AT LOS OAKLAND RAIDERS

WHAT IS HAPPENING HERE?!?! Have you seen Raiders linebacker-turned-defensive end Khalil Mack recently? He’s going to be a menace off the edge. The Bengals appear to once again have the juice to reach (and lose) a playoff game again this season, but Week 1 on the road against promising second-year QB Derek Carr with new friend Amari Cooper on the outside does not feel like a good place to test the idea.

SO WHO ELSE IS THERE?!

Well, for starters:

Then again:

Kind of scary: Cowboys (-6) are not a bad pick and will probably tear apart a mediocre-at-best Giants front seven, but the Giants do have serious firepower on offense.

Truthfully, I don’t know yet who I’m choosing in each of my seven separate (yes, seven) survivor pools. I have to re-read everything I wrote and then listen to some others who are smarter. But I hope at least now you have at least a better idea of what you’re getting yourself into with each of the most popular picks. If you have just ONE entry, I would take the Packers. If you have more and want to diversify, I would look to the Dolphins.